Forecasting

CAUTION -- A master programmer and senior computer exec once said, "Life is a series of if-then statements." Economic forecasters rely on the ceteris paribus (other things equal) assumption. Which is to say, if a trend continues as it has in the past, and if all other factors stay the same, then we can predict such-and-so. However, in the real world, nothing stays the same -- other things never remain equal. It's like forecasting the weather.
   Many economists are reluctant to make forecasts, but their corporate and government employers, as well as the media and the general public, insist on wanting to know what will happen in the future. And if one economist won't provide a forecast, or couches it in too many CYA phrases, then news reporters go to another, who talks with a greater degree of confidence. (Note all the if-then statements in the above.) There are no guarantees. The best we can hope for, based on the heroic assumption that there will be no major changes, is a reasonable degree of accuracy. But even this does not define "major" change, or "reasonable" degree of accuracy.

PYTHON ALERT -- TV promos for the reality series "Sarah Palin's Alaska" have her saying she'd rather be outdoors than in a political office. Maybe she never wanted to be governor at all. She always wanted to be a lumberjack. Cue the music:
   She's a lumberjack and she's OK
   She sleeps all night and she works all day
   She cuts down trees, she skips and jumps ...

GLEANINGS of an Itinerant Speller -- Legimate.  We're not sure what that means, but adding -ti- in the middle would make it a legitimate word.

FROM THE RIM -- Sarcasm is wasted on the young, destructive to the old, and useless against the self righteous.

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -- Be alert. The world needs more lerts.