They didn't see it coming because they weren't looking.
Watch the center, but don't ignore the fringe.
The fuss over House GOP leader Eric Cantor's defeat reminded me of a youth soccer league for 10-year-olds. The coaches said, "Spread out, and pass the ball." However, as soon as the ball was put in play, all the kids piled into a mob, all looking to control the ball. The adults (can't really call them coaches) thought the mob scene was wonderfully amusing and did nothing to stop it.
Similarly, as media columnist Andrew Carr noted in the New York Times yesterday, big league reporters in DC had become so focused on the Capitol ball and the political players that they ignored the folks back home.
The Beltway media mavens and the pollsters were stunned when Cantor lost. The reason they didn't see it coming was because they weren't looking.
Local reporters on Cantor's home turf, however, were not surprised at all. They saw it coming because they were out on the street, talking to the home folks, unlike the Capitol crowd who only talked to each other, much like the soccer kids who crowded onto the ball and failed to see open players on the fringe.
Years ago, we noted a tendency for reporters to focus on the main attraction at a major news event. The advice then holds true today -- look around to the fringes. That's where some of the best, more interesting stories are. Besides, it's less crowded, and you may be the only journalist there.
It happened in Virginia last week, as the major media mavens thought they had the Cantor saga well covered by focusing on the Beltway business. Besides, it saved the time and expense of traveling all the way to suburban Virginia. Save a dime, lose a dollar.
One of the most significant examples of staying observant occurred on 9/11, as a photographer was heading back to his New Jersey newsroom when he noticed several firemen raising a flag amidst the rubble of the World Trade Center.
Result: A photo that hit Page One of newspapers around the world, appeared on a First Class postage stamp, and ranks with the flag-raising on Iwo Jima as one of the most famous pictures in the world.
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