Jobs Update

   One day, as I sat musing, sad and lonely and without a friend, a voice came to me from out of the gloom, saying, "Cheer up, things could be worse."
   So I cheered up, and sure enough, things got worse.

   Companies are hiring, but the pace of new jobs created has slackened, according to monthly statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Part of that, of course, could be the normal August slide, which the number crunchers try to account for by calculating a "seasonally adjusted annual rate." There are also the built-in hazards of telephone surveys. The sample may be too small, especially during vacation months or holiday periods when people are not home.
   Nonetheless, surveys are useful, especially over time. In this case, a change over a single month may have little meaning, but when a trend is set over a six-month period, that's something to pay attention to.
   In general, looking at one aspect of an economy -- whether regional, national or international group -- can often be misleading.Far better to take a wider view over a longer time period to form a good analysis.
   That said, here are some of the latest numbers, released by the BLS on Friday, two days after the ER posting on "The New Normal" unemployment rate.
   In the U.S., the jobless rate has been holding at just above 6 percent for months. The number for August was 6.1 percent, just a tick down from the 6.2 percent the month before, even as the nation's employers have been steadily hiring. Even so, the number of unemployed persons, at 9.6 million, "changed little," the BLS said.
   Overall, the nation added 142,000 jobs in August, down from an average monthly gain of 212,000 over the past year. However, the labor force participation rate, which many economists consider a better indicator of employment health, changed little -- 62.8 percent -- "essentially unchanged since April." the BLS said.
   Looking for signs of an improving economy? Look harder. The BLS reported no change in manufacturing, retail trade changed very little (down by 8,000 jobs), and employment in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, all showed little change.
   The areas of professional and business services, however, as well as leisure and hospitality, plus construction, all showed gains.
   Otherwise, the length of the workweek, as well as overtime, showed no change, and average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by just 6 cents, to $24.53.
   So are things getting better? For some, maybe. The number of longterm unemployed -- those jobless for at least six months -- dropped by 192,000 to a total of 3.0 million, according to the BLS report. However, it's still true that these folks account for nearly a third of all those unemployed.
   
   Meanwhile, the good news for management is that productivity went up by 2.3 percent, and unit labor costs declined by 0.1 percent in the second quarter, the BLS reported.
   And overall, personal income increased in July by 0.2 percent, even as personal expenditures fell 0.1 percent, the Census Bureau reported.
   
   So it seem that those who have jobs are a tad more productive, and making a touch more money, but they're being more careful about their spending. All of which means that while things may not be getting worse, they're very slow in getting better.
   And while it's true that many years ago, the so-called "full employment" level was when the unemployment rate was 4 percent, it's also true that many years ago, a gallon of gas cost 12 cents, a pack of cigarettes cost 35 cents, and the federal minimum wage was 50 cents an hour.
   That was then. It ain't many years ago no more.