Truthification

Data selectivity can truthify anything

"Figures don't lie, but liars do figure." -- Mark Twain

Presentation is everything. Ask any chef.

   Pick the right set of numbers, present them in the most favorable fashion, and you can market a complete falsehood as a great truth, and a bargain at that.
   We expect such tactics from advertisers and politicians, but sometimes the information is more subtle, and needs to be looked at more closely, or from a different angle.
   Here's an example: How do Americans feel about their economic well-being?
   The answer, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve, is they are "increasingly optimistic," showing an increase of eight percentage points in 2014 from the year before. A closer look at the numbers in the Fed's Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking reveals that 29 percent of Americans expect their income to be higher in the coming year, compared to 21 percent in the prior year's survey.
   Looked at another way, that means less than one-third of those surveyed see better times ahead, compared to only about one-fifth in the earlier survey. In turn, that means most Americans are not optimistic about an income boost.
   Another aspect of the numbers, according to the Fed, is that only 53 percent -- a bit more than half -- of Americans feel they could cover "an emergency expense costing $400 without selling something or borrowing money." In addition, 31 percent reported "going without some form of medical care in the past year because they could not afford it."
   The survey dealt with such issues as economic security, housing and living arrangements, banking and credit access, education and student loan debt, savings behavior, and retirement preparedness.
   What about housing? The Fed survey said the outlook for the housing market "remained generally positive." Some 43 percent believed their home increased in value over the past year, and 39 percent expected home values to rise in the coming year. That's less than half for each question.
   As for renters, half said they could not afford a downpayment, and 31 percent said they would be unable to qualify for a mortgage.
   All in all, when you take a closer look at the numbers, you come up with doubts about the claims of increasing prosperity for the majority of Americans. So while the numbers may well be accurate, and there's no reason to suspect they're not, how the numbers are arranged and presented can make a difference between an appetizing dish and something else.
   Want more details? Here's a link to the Fed web site and its report: http://www.federalreserve.gov/communitydev/shed.htm.