Challenges

   There are some signs that the U.S. economy may be gathering its strength for a good future, but there are still some hints of warning, with conflicting reports piling out of research offices.
   The Labor Department reported that 280,000 jobs were added last month, even as the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.5 percent, probably as more people entered the workforce and began looking for jobs.
   At the same time, momentum in the U.S. "was sapped in recent months," said the International Monetary Fund, "by a series of negative shocks." Because of that, the IMF said, the Federal Reserve should defer any boost in interest rates until there are stronger signs of economic strength. In addition "a range of challenges linked to poverty, productivity and the fiscal health of the U.S. economy remain largely unaddressed," the IMF said.
   For its part, the Fed said in its Beige Book report on the economy, "overall economic activity expanded" in the past two months. As usual, however, there were caveats in regional reports and summaries.
   Meanwhile, the Commerce Department noted a dip in total output in the first three months of the year of 0.7 percent, compared to a narrow rise of 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014.
   The Federal Reserve is rarely known for clarity in its announcements on strategy, although it has indicated it would wait through the summer until stronger data signals come in to justify any change in monetary policy. If the economy slides again in the second three months of 2015, that would fit the definition of recession: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
   Conclusion: There's too much fog in the economic weather to make any firm forecasts.