Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Delay Dilemma

That was then. This is now.

   The Federal Reserve now says that "conditions warranting an increase for the federal funds rate had not yet been met." Previously, the Fed had indicated that it would likely boost its key interest rate this summer.
   That, however, was before the Greek dilemma had reached crisis proportions that resonate throughout Europe and the world. At its most recent meeting (last month) of its policy-setting Open Markets Committee, notes of which were released Wednesday, the Fed said "additional information on the outlook" was needed before acting. And one FOMC member "indicated a willingness to wait another meeting or two" before raising the target range of 0 to 1/4 percent.
   On Tuesday, we broached the idea that the Fed would probably not act until next summer. That was a day before the Fed released the minutes of its meeting that was held June 16-17. That release confirms the prospect of a longer delay before the Fed acts. Key to its rate-raising move will be an improving economy, a healthier jobs market, lower unemployment, and most important, an inflation rate of 2 percent. Inflation is still below that target rate, which means the Fed will keep interest rates low as part of its program to keep the economy healthy.

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