Quo Vadis?

Where are you going?

   In recent months, there have been suggestions that the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates to prevent the economy from growing too much, too quickly.
   Now, however, it seems the Fed may not have to, because the economy is showing signs of slowing, not only in the U.S. but in other major world economies.
   At least that's what many investors expect, assuming one accepts the idea that Wall Street holds a barometer of the nation's economy.
   While it may reflect long-term trends, the stock market is also subject to panic attacks in the short term. That is, so short as to be during a week, a day or even hourly.
   This partially explains the gyrations of major averages that track stock market activities. As with any average, however, it number -- whether it be up or down -- includes the rise or fall of a wide range of components. In the case of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the most widely followed averages, there are just 30 components -- a list of 30 major corporations.
   So  an average is just that, an average, and it says nothing about the performance of individual stocks that are components of that list. An investor may well hold shares of one of the components that are above the average, and doing well. Or below average, not doing well, and it may be time to dump that stock for individual performance reasons, not the overall economy.
   In any case, the American economy has been doing well for years, with 98 months of job gains, and the unemployment rate holding at 3.7 percent, according to the latest figures from the government.
   Nonetheless, as J.P. Morgan once said when asked what the market will do, "It will fluctuate."
   This is true of the overall economy also. It does and it will fluctuate. And this is what underlies the present feeling for the near future of the national and the world economy. We are now in a period of what has been called the longest period of economic growth in American history.
   It has also been said that all good things come to an end, but whether the current economic good thing ends with a bang or a whimper is something no human can predict.
   The Fed does its best to even out the ups and downs of the economy, and its weapon of choice is interest rates. It trims rates to stimulate growth and hikes rates when growth is too strong.
   Many argue, debate and protest the Fed's strategies, but the reality is that the nation's central bank is an independent agency, largely immune to political pressure.
   So now the questions are whether the economy will slow down on its own, and by how much, or whether the Fed will step in to stabilize the growth rate, put the brakes on to prevent a too rapid acceleration, or stimulate growth as the economy -- both national and world -- risks a stumble.
   Your guess is likely better than mine