2020 Foresight

   Few people have 20/20 hindsight, and even fewer have 2020 foresight. Nevertheless, many try to predict what the future holds, using what logicians call the "ceteris paribus" assumption. That's Latin for "other things equal," and assumes that nothing changes.
   A heroic assumption, at best, because things always change, and you never know which element will change, when, where, why, what will cause it, how and by how much.
   There we are with those pesky Five Ws again.
   Even so, the "ceteris paribus" assumption is useful, because you never know which element will change or when or by how much. Several months may go by and nothing happens, or there can be a rush of change by one or several elements of reality, leading to victory by the forces of chaos.
   Agent 86 would not be surprised.
   Anyway, given the events of recent weeks, and assuming governments continue the attitudes and strategies they have shown, it would be a fair assumption that chaos will reign in the Middle East and could well spread to the U.S., though probably not to the level of outright war.
   Check the number of "if" phrases in the preceding paragraph. I count four.
   So it's up to journalists to try to keep track of what's happening now, what caused the happenings, and what the consequences will be, as well as reporting what politicians and government officials have to say about what they plan to do about it, how, when and why.
   Again with the Five Ws.
   But it's part of the job, and will remain so as long as government doesn't succeed in controlling what the news media report. Not that they won't keep trying. They have in the past and will in the future.
   Danger, Will Robinson!