Thursday, March 26, 2020

Then and Now

   That was then but this is now, the saying goes.
   The same day one government agency reported solid economic growth as the year ended, another agency said more than 3 million people filed for unemployment benefits, 10 times more than in the previous week.
   The economy may well have been on a good growth path, as indicated by a 2 percent quarterly growth rate in the total output of goods and services (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2019. But then the corona virus hit America, and in about a month's time millions of Americans became sick and many hundreds died, including physicians and nurses who cared for them.
   The economy was already nearing the end of its years-long growth path, so a correction was expected. The sudden attack of the virus pandemic hastened what economists saw as inevitable, but not catastrophic.
   For those who follow the stock market and believe that its performance is a barometer of national economic success, the Dow Jones average of 30 industrial stocks crashed from its high of some 30,000 to below 19,000 in a matter of days. Then, after Congress worked on a $2 trillion aid package to rescue companies and workers, Wall Street investors responded by boosting the Dow back above 20,000 almost as quickly.
   But will it hold, and is the Dow really a reliable barometer of the national economy, or mainly a reflection of investor confidence? Not to say greed.   

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