When print and broadcast news media compile lists of the "alternative facts," half-truths, misleading comments, falsehoods and flat-lies perpetrated by a president who peppers his speeches with the plea, "Believe me," and attacks every report that he doesn't like as "fake news," readers and viewers must deal with this question: Who is more believable?
Should they continue to believe an individual with a proven record of deception and untruths, or come to accept multiple information sources with a record of reliability going back many years?
Even the conservative sympathizers at Fox News regularly tout the slogan, "We report, you decide."
Or when dealing with claims of wire tapping of a presidential candidate when the FBI, the CIA, numerous senior officials at major intelligence agencies point out that such a move could not happen without a warrant, and if it did, that would mean the FBI, for example, was breaking the law, what is the believability quotient for each? Law enforcement agencies or an individual who refuses to provide evidence or proof to back up his claims?
The White House now says the president won't divulge his source for the wiretap information in order to protect the confidentiality of his sources.
Yeah, right. And I have it on good authority that the moon is made of green cheese, the lunar landings were faked -- they were filmed at a movie studio in Brooklyn -- and Walter Cronkite fibbed.
Monday, March 6, 2017
Sunday, March 5, 2017
Xenophobia Goes Viral
Economic nationalism equals colonialism reborn, and colonialism leads to breakup.
The fear of foreigners immigrating to new countries is spreading, and the echoes of Trumpism are spreading to other major nations, especially the United Kingdom and France.
The U.S. president wants to cancel the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as well as the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), along with efforts to keep out newcomers and deport more recent immigrants, even those with minor legal offenses such as traffic tickets, as part of his dream to keep the country safe and "make America great again."
Similar efforts are being promoted in the United Kingdom, where political leaders want the country to leave the European Union, and in France, where presidential candidate Marine Le Pen wants "borders that we control," charging that "globalization is a catastrophe" for most people in France.
But when everyone fears foreigners, no one has a safe home.
Breaking up international trade agreements and striving for a form of economic nationalism where the winner takes all and the loser goes hungry is a return of colonial era mercantilism.
There's enough hunger in the world without deliberately making the crisis worse through predatory trade practices.
The fear of foreigners immigrating to new countries is spreading, and the echoes of Trumpism are spreading to other major nations, especially the United Kingdom and France.
The U.S. president wants to cancel the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as well as the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), along with efforts to keep out newcomers and deport more recent immigrants, even those with minor legal offenses such as traffic tickets, as part of his dream to keep the country safe and "make America great again."
Similar efforts are being promoted in the United Kingdom, where political leaders want the country to leave the European Union, and in France, where presidential candidate Marine Le Pen wants "borders that we control," charging that "globalization is a catastrophe" for most people in France.
But when everyone fears foreigners, no one has a safe home.
Breaking up international trade agreements and striving for a form of economic nationalism where the winner takes all and the loser goes hungry is a return of colonial era mercantilism.
There's enough hunger in the world without deliberately making the crisis worse through predatory trade practices.
Presidential Five Ws
"Believe me." -- Donald Trump
Just because you say so doesn't make it true. -- Pug Mahoney
The president stunned the world early Saturday with his allegations that his predecessor Barack Obama wire-tapped communications systems at Trump Tower during the election campaign.
Trump gave no details and offered no evidence, and while several of the standard Five Ws plus How (who, what, where, when, why and how) were included in the presidential Tweets, the information was skimpy enough to fit into the 140-character format.
Briefly, here are the presidential five Ws:
Who -- Barack Obama
What -- Tapped communication devices
Where -- Trump Tower in New York City
When -- Before the election
Why -- not given
How -- not given
Here, then, are some follow-up questions, based on the same journalistic Five W format:
Who or what is your source for the information leading to the allegations?
What evidence shows that there was in fact unwarranted wire tapping?
Where was the tapping originated, in what agency, and by whom?
When specifically was the tapping done?
Why was the surveillance done?
How, specifically, was it done?
Wire tapping can only be done legally after approval by a court. Who, in which court, approved? If the tapping was done without a warrant, the current president, Donald Trump, is alleging criminal behavior on the part of the president at the time, Barack Obama.
If the allegations are true, then an official investigation should determine the facts of the case, and file charges accordingly.
If the allegations are not true, then that same official investigation will determine that, and file charges accordingly.
Either way, investigate, always remembering that the most important of the Five Ws is the last one: Why?
Meanwhile, after the furor over the early Saturday morning allegations, a White House spokesman on Sunday issued a statement calling for a congressional investigation as part of its probe of Russian meddling in the election. There was still no evidence offered that the tapping actually occurred.
Just because you say so doesn't make it true. -- Pug Mahoney
The president stunned the world early Saturday with his allegations that his predecessor Barack Obama wire-tapped communications systems at Trump Tower during the election campaign.
Trump gave no details and offered no evidence, and while several of the standard Five Ws plus How (who, what, where, when, why and how) were included in the presidential Tweets, the information was skimpy enough to fit into the 140-character format.
Briefly, here are the presidential five Ws:
Who -- Barack Obama
What -- Tapped communication devices
Where -- Trump Tower in New York City
When -- Before the election
Why -- not given
How -- not given
Here, then, are some follow-up questions, based on the same journalistic Five W format:
Who or what is your source for the information leading to the allegations?
What evidence shows that there was in fact unwarranted wire tapping?
Where was the tapping originated, in what agency, and by whom?
When specifically was the tapping done?
Why was the surveillance done?
How, specifically, was it done?
Wire tapping can only be done legally after approval by a court. Who, in which court, approved? If the tapping was done without a warrant, the current president, Donald Trump, is alleging criminal behavior on the part of the president at the time, Barack Obama.
If the allegations are true, then an official investigation should determine the facts of the case, and file charges accordingly.
If the allegations are not true, then that same official investigation will determine that, and file charges accordingly.
Either way, investigate, always remembering that the most important of the Five Ws is the last one: Why?
Meanwhile, after the furor over the early Saturday morning allegations, a White House spokesman on Sunday issued a statement calling for a congressional investigation as part of its probe of Russian meddling in the election. There was still no evidence offered that the tapping actually occurred.
Friday, March 3, 2017
Here It Comes
Senior Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, were surprisingly specific Friday in talking about a boost in interest rates when the Federal Reserve Board's Open Market Committee meets later this month.
Several times in recent weeks, readers of this blog have seen predictions of a rate hike to come soon. Now, speeches by Fed leaders have led with talk about the need to draw back on the program of low interest rates to stimulate the nation's economy.
Now that the economy has been on a slow but steady growth path, as measured by Growth Domestic Product (GDP), it's time for the Fed to pull back from its low interest rate strategy and tap on the economic brakes to prevent a rapid growth rate rise that could lead to a quick fall.
The Fed has been focusing on a growth rate of about 2 percent. For the past two fiscal quarters, GDP has been growing at 1.9 percent, accompanied by labor shortages as companies hire more people. Moreover, the unemployment rate has been below 5 percent for some time now, another indicator of a healthy economy.
The Fed's Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet March 14-15, when it will decide on a change in its interest rate policy. Its key rate, the federal funds rate, has been below 1 percent for many months as the Fed has tried to encourage borrowing to rescue the economy from the Great Recession of ten years ago.
Raising interest rates now will put the Fed on a collision course with the president, who has talked of a surge in economic growth of as much as 3 percent, powered by lower taxes, fewer government regulations and increased federal spending.
Several times in recent weeks, readers of this blog have seen predictions of a rate hike to come soon. Now, speeches by Fed leaders have led with talk about the need to draw back on the program of low interest rates to stimulate the nation's economy.
Now that the economy has been on a slow but steady growth path, as measured by Growth Domestic Product (GDP), it's time for the Fed to pull back from its low interest rate strategy and tap on the economic brakes to prevent a rapid growth rate rise that could lead to a quick fall.
The Fed has been focusing on a growth rate of about 2 percent. For the past two fiscal quarters, GDP has been growing at 1.9 percent, accompanied by labor shortages as companies hire more people. Moreover, the unemployment rate has been below 5 percent for some time now, another indicator of a healthy economy.
The Fed's Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet March 14-15, when it will decide on a change in its interest rate policy. Its key rate, the federal funds rate, has been below 1 percent for many months as the Fed has tried to encourage borrowing to rescue the economy from the Great Recession of ten years ago.
Raising interest rates now will put the Fed on a collision course with the president, who has talked of a surge in economic growth of as much as 3 percent, powered by lower taxes, fewer government regulations and increased federal spending.
Thursday, March 2, 2017
What Mess?
"I inherited a mess," says the Whiner in Chief, and "Only I can fix it." Moreover, who better to fix an economic "disaster" than a successful businessman, he notes.
But if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Other presidents have inherited economic or political messes, but rather than whine about them they set about fixing them.
As for the current alleged "mess," the latest comment from the Federal Reserve on the overall economic health of the nation says all twelve districts in the system reported expansion as the year started.
The Beige Book report from the Fed noted a "modest to moderate pace" of economic improvement in January and February. Labor markets "remained tight," the report said, "with some districts noting widening labor shortages."
This, however, can be a good sign, that demand for workers has risen because companies are hiring.
Earlier, the Commerce Department reported that total output of goods and services -- Gross Domestic Product, or GDP -- grew at a rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016.
That's not a roaring rate, certainly, but a slower but steadier rate of expansion is a better sign of health than super-dooper-whiz-bang growth that can easily stumble over itself and quickly collapse.
To prevent a too-rapid expansion, the Fed has repeatedly indicated it would apply its economic brakes, perhaps as soon as its next meeting.
If that sounds like a conflict with the president's hopes to finance his growth program through a combination of lower taxes on a booming base, you're right.
But if GDP growth does not hit the president's preferred target of 3 percent, lower revenue and higher spending will indeed match the president's description of "disaster."
So it will not be a disaster that he inherited. Rather, it will be one that he created.
But if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Other presidents have inherited economic or political messes, but rather than whine about them they set about fixing them.
As for the current alleged "mess," the latest comment from the Federal Reserve on the overall economic health of the nation says all twelve districts in the system reported expansion as the year started.
The Beige Book report from the Fed noted a "modest to moderate pace" of economic improvement in January and February. Labor markets "remained tight," the report said, "with some districts noting widening labor shortages."
This, however, can be a good sign, that demand for workers has risen because companies are hiring.
Earlier, the Commerce Department reported that total output of goods and services -- Gross Domestic Product, or GDP -- grew at a rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016.
That's not a roaring rate, certainly, but a slower but steadier rate of expansion is a better sign of health than super-dooper-whiz-bang growth that can easily stumble over itself and quickly collapse.
To prevent a too-rapid expansion, the Fed has repeatedly indicated it would apply its economic brakes, perhaps as soon as its next meeting.
If that sounds like a conflict with the president's hopes to finance his growth program through a combination of lower taxes on a booming base, you're right.
But if GDP growth does not hit the president's preferred target of 3 percent, lower revenue and higher spending will indeed match the president's description of "disaster."
So it will not be a disaster that he inherited. Rather, it will be one that he created.
Journalism Breeds Cynicism
Proverbs from Pug Mahoney, the cynic in chief:
-- Cynicism thrives when idealism clashes with reality.
-- Ignorance is no barrier to success in politics, but it is a major impediment to governing.
-- Politics is about getting elected. Government is about getting something done.
-- Some pundits said the president's speech was his best yet. But compared to all the others, that's not saying much.
-- The corporate prime directive is to increase shareholder value. This means boosting the stock price even if it means consumers suffer.
-- Consumer choice is a cover term for higher company profits.
-- The secret of success in business: Lower costs and higher prices equal more profit.
-- How can you tell when a politician is lying? His lips move.
-- Cynicism thrives when idealism clashes with reality.
-- Ignorance is no barrier to success in politics, but it is a major impediment to governing.
-- Politics is about getting elected. Government is about getting something done.
-- Some pundits said the president's speech was his best yet. But compared to all the others, that's not saying much.
-- The corporate prime directive is to increase shareholder value. This means boosting the stock price even if it means consumers suffer.
-- Consumer choice is a cover term for higher company profits.
-- The secret of success in business: Lower costs and higher prices equal more profit.
-- How can you tell when a politician is lying? His lips move.
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
Wall Street Approves
The three leading stock market indexes roared to record highs after investors heard the president's speech to Congress, with the Dow leaping above the 21,000 mark.
Wall Street may approve, but whether this enthusiasm spreads to Main Street is an open question.
As a candidate, and again in his speech to Congress Tuesday evening, the president repeated his promises to reduce regulations, reform the tax code and eliminate waste in government spending, all while boosting revenue as the American economy accelerates.
Total output has been pegged at 1.9 percent, and the president has suggested that under his leadership, the Gross Domestic Product growth rate could go to as high as 3 percent.
But in an interview with the BBC, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Alan Greenspan, was asked, "Can he do it?" After a short pause, Greenspan's answer was a simple, unamplifed, "No."
Meanwhile, the Fed is likely to boost interest rates at its upcoming meeting to make sure the economy does not grow too quickly, which would be a problem.
Or, as Greenspan himself has said, the Fed's job is to "take away the punch just as the party is getting started."
That, however, has not curbed the enthusiasm of investors, as they pushed market indexes to record highs.
All these developments have prompted resident cynics to point out that the Dow average is not so much an economic barometer predicting the future as it is a temperature gauge of "irrational exuberance," to borrow another Greenspan phrase.
After looking at a list of top-level presidential appointments, the cynic in chief noted that "instead of draining the swamp, he has added more alligators."
Wall Street may approve, but whether this enthusiasm spreads to Main Street is an open question.
As a candidate, and again in his speech to Congress Tuesday evening, the president repeated his promises to reduce regulations, reform the tax code and eliminate waste in government spending, all while boosting revenue as the American economy accelerates.
Total output has been pegged at 1.9 percent, and the president has suggested that under his leadership, the Gross Domestic Product growth rate could go to as high as 3 percent.
But in an interview with the BBC, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Alan Greenspan, was asked, "Can he do it?" After a short pause, Greenspan's answer was a simple, unamplifed, "No."
Meanwhile, the Fed is likely to boost interest rates at its upcoming meeting to make sure the economy does not grow too quickly, which would be a problem.
Or, as Greenspan himself has said, the Fed's job is to "take away the punch just as the party is getting started."
That, however, has not curbed the enthusiasm of investors, as they pushed market indexes to record highs.
All these developments have prompted resident cynics to point out that the Dow average is not so much an economic barometer predicting the future as it is a temperature gauge of "irrational exuberance," to borrow another Greenspan phrase.
After looking at a list of top-level presidential appointments, the cynic in chief noted that "instead of draining the swamp, he has added more alligators."
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