It looked good at first, and a second look almost confirmed it. But an even closer, third look showed a lower increase in national output during the first three months of this year.
That's the story of GDP estimates for the first quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis at first said GDP -- the country's Gross Domestic Product, or the total value of all goods and services produced in America -- rose by 2.5 percent in the first quarter, up from a 0.4 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2012. Then a second estimate showed a rise of 2.4 percent -- almost as good. But yesterday, the government said output rose by only 1.8 percent, based on more complete source data than were available a month ago.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates are rising, which means fewer home sales, which in turn means fewer sales of home appliances, furniture and other durable goods that home buyers need. And as sales drop, so does production.
However, Willy Loman-like, some realty experts claimed a boost in mortgage rates is good news for the housing market, because it will prompt those on the fence about buying to jump into the market before rates go even higher.
Perhaps. But the government's GDP report also noted that an increase in personal consumption expenditures was less than previously estimated, and exports and imports are now estimated to have declined.
So are we there yet? Is the economic recovery solidly under way? Or will an end to the money-pumping stimulus that the Federal Reserve is considering pull the plug on the recovery machine?
Sounds like the questions at the end of an old radio soap opera. Even so, it's too important not to stay tuned.
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