Boomlet, Part 2

Recovery may be here, but robust it ain't.

It may be.
Then again, it may not.

   Skeptics are looking at last week's economy numbers with caution, even as a first glance shows promise. A second look, however, yields evidence that we're not yet on the high road to economic recovery.
   The unemployment rate may be down, but the total number of jobs is relatively steady. GDP is up, but that could be due to an increase in inventories ahead of the holiday shopping rush.
   True, the budget deficit is declining. For the first two months of fiscal year 2014, the U.S. federal government ran a deficit of $231 billion, said the Congressional Budget Office, $61 billion less than the shortfall a year ago.
    And the Labor Department on Friday said the jobless rate in America was the lowest in five years, at 7 percent, down from its peak of 10 percent in October 2009, but not much different from the 7.3 percent in December 2008, just before President Obama took office.
   Meanwhile, output of goods and services (GDP) during the July-September period rose at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, compared to 2.5 percent in the second quarter. In its first estimate, the Census Bureau said output rose at an annual rate of 2.8 percent.
   The October 2013 international trade deficit decreased 5.4 percent from September, to $40.6 billion. Exports increased 1.8 percent, to $192.7 billion, and imports rose 0.4 percent, to $233.3 billion.
   What do those numbers say? Not sure. But it could be that shallow changes mean less spending, and less spending means a slowdown.
   And while sales of new single-family houses in October rose to an annualized rate of 444,000, according a government estimate, compared to 354,000 in September, the Census Bureau acknowledged that, given its degree of confidence in the survey, the agency "does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero."
   In other words, sales were flat.

   Separately, the Federal Reserve Board, in its Beige Book summary of economic conditions, described a "modest to moderate" expansion pace from early October through mid-November.
   As for retail sales, the Fed survey used such terms as "moderate ... hopeful but uncertain ... cautiously optimistic" among executives scattered around the country.
   And for the weekend after Thanksgiving, including Black Friday, when retailers expect to see their account books post black ink for the year rather than the red ink that indicates losses, the National Retail Federation said shoppers spent $1.7 billion less than they did a year ago.

   Can you say gloomy?
   As noted here a month ago, beware the boomlet. Sudden sharp increases often cannot be maintained, and can lead to another drop as an economy moves to recovery.