Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Voter Fraud vs Voter Turnout

   Voting is not a requirement, but it is an obligation. And those who do not exercise their right to vote  have no credibility when they repeat spurious allegations of voter fraud.
   For all the sound and fury about the supposed looming catastrophe of voter fraud, consider this: A more important issue is voter turnout. In this week's primary elections scattered around the country, only 20 or 25 percent of those eligible and registered to vote actually turned out to exercise their franchise. And typically, in general elections as well as those held to choose a President, turnout -- of those not only eligible but also actually registered -- is less than  70 percent.
   In contrast, how many incidents of voter fraud, whether by those who are ineligible and/or in the country illegally, have been alleged and have been proven?
   The Brennan Center for Justice at the New York University School of Law maintains that "voter fraud is very rare, voter impersonation is nearly non-existent  and much of the problems associated with alleged fraud in elections relates to unintentional mistakes by voters or election administrators."
   In Missouri, for example, there were just six cases of votes cast by ineligible voters, out of 2.3 million votes cast throughout the state in the general election of 2000. "This amounts to a rate of 0.0003 percent," the Brennan Center said in its report.
   In New Jersey, a state with a long-past history of ballot stuffing by machine politicians, the Brennan Center report noted "eight substantiated cases of individuals knowingly casting invalid votes -- eight voters voting twice" in the 2004 general election. That's 0.0004 percent of the 3.6 million total votes cast. Moreover, "none of these problems" of double voters -- those allegedly voting in New Jersey in addition to other states -- "could have been resolved by requiring photo ID at the polls."
   In the 2012 general election, voter turnout was just 54 percent, according to Census Bureau data. Moreover, of the 5.9 million people eligible, only 3.6 million -- some 64 percent -- actually registered to vote in 2012.
   In Wisconsin's general election in 2004, a total of nearly 3 million votes were cast. Only seven allegations of voter fraud were substantiated, all by persons with felony convictions. That's a rate of 0.0002 percent in the state as a whole, according to the Brennan report.
   That, of course, raises another question. Should convicted felons forever lose their right to vote, even after they have paid their debt to society?
   There was one case alleged of a vote cast in the name of another -- impersonation. That, however, was later determined to be a clerical error by a poll worker.
   And in Pennsylvania, the state "failed to show any evidence of in-person voter fraud," Judge Bernard McGinley of the Commonwealth Court wrote as he struck down Pennsylvania's voter ID law.
   As for the number of people eligible to vote in Pennsylvania, Census data show a total of 9.4 million, of whom only 6.8 million -- 69 percent -- did so. Of those eligible and registered to vote in Pennsylvania, 5.8 million -- 59 percent -- showed up to vote in the 2012 presidential election.
   In short, allegations of voter fraud are minimal, and those allegations shown to be valid are virtually nonexistent compared to total voter population. In fact, most of the alleged cases of fraud were due to administrative error, not to voters. Further, virtually none of those substantiated cases involved people in this country illegally. As a practical matter, those here illegally try their best to avoid involvement with the legal system, lest they be deported.

   On the other side of the argument, an organization called True The Vote says on its web site that "46 states have prosecuted or convicted cases of voter fraud," yet it provides no numbers of allegations or of the number successfully prosecuted.
   The group claims there are more than "1.8 million dead voters still eligible on the rolls across the country." While that may be true, the question remains: How many of those "dead voters" were counted at the polls on Election Day. Granted, the lists should be regularly checked and those names removed, but no examples have shown up of "dead voters" casting ballots.
   As for the number of cases of "potential felony interstate voter fraud," the group says it found 99 cases. Note the word "potential," which does not necessarily mean proven. Moreover, 99 allegations of cross-border voting in a national population of some 300 million isn't much. In the 2012 presidential election, a total of 128.5 million votes were cast, according to government records out of a total registered voter population of 235.3 million -- a participation rate of 62 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Moreover, only 71 percent of those eligible were registered.

   Conclusion: With proven cases of voter fraud virtually nonexistent relative to voter population, and fully one-third of eligible voters not bothering to turn out even for presidential elections -- the turnout rate is far worse for primary and midterm elections -- the uproar over supposed voter fraud can only be seen as a ploy by one side to prevent voting by those who are likely to support the other side.
   It is, therefore, a tale full of sound and fury but signifying nothing.

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