Bouncing Data Points

Follow the bouncing data points.
Why? All that bouncing is confusing.

   There are signs that the U.S. economy is improving, but such a sharp swing from a 2 percent drop in the first quarter to a 4 percent leap in the second three months of the year leads one to question the accuracy of the survey.
   However, it's important to keep in mind that the first estimate -- which is the 4 percent growth rate that the Commerce Department just reported -- is an early number, and first estimates are inevitably revised as larger amounts of survey data join the parade.
   Meanwhile, the same day the GDP number came out, The Federal Reserve noted that while things look pretty good, the job market could be better, the housing recovery "remains slow," and fiscal policy "is restraining economic growth."
   Even so, the Fed will scale back its money pump to $10 billion monthly, from $15 billion, beginning in August.
  Separately, the Census Bureau reported that both the homeownership rate and the housing rental rate in America faded in the second quarter. Taken together, this suggests that people are buying less and staying longer in rental units. It figures. When families are not confident about their future earning power, they hesitate to commit to a long term mortgage and decide to wait until things improve.

   And for what it's worth, the International Monetary Fund expects the economy in Japan to grow by 1.6 percent this year. China's growth was 7.7 percent last year and will likely be almost as much this year, but the nation "would benefit from slower but safer growth."
   In Europe, the United Kingdom economy "has rebounded strongly and prospects are promising," the IMF said. "Nonetheless, sustaining strong growth will depend on a recovery in productivity growth and real wages," the IMF said.
   A recovery is also under way in Germany, the IMF noted. And the outlook for France is for "a gradual recovery," with GDP growth expected to by almost 1 percent this year and 1.4 percent in 2015.
   So it seems the Great Recession is increasingly a thing of the past, as is the Great Depression of the 1930s. Whether both remain ghostly or ghastly memories is another matter. Either may yet come back to haunt, especially if policy makers and corporate geniuses fail to keep remembrances of things past.