Recovery

   Restless kids in the back seat: "Are we there yet?"
   Mom in the front seat: "We're on the way, but don't start to party while we're still in the car."

   Economic recovery is on the way, but it's not yet time to celebrate. The signs are not firm, and the base is still a bit shaky, but confidence can be a major force in solidifying the trend.

   Here are a few good signs:
* Every state but one (Alaska) showed economic growth for 2013.
* The national debt has stabilized and the deficit has declined. The Congressional Budget Office said the government will post a deficit of $492 billion this year, a sharp drop from an earlier estimate of $680 billion. As a percent of GDP, the deficit this year is estimated to be 2.8 percent of the economy, compared to nearly 10 percent five years ago, the CBO said.
* The unemployment rate is ticking downward, and is now 6.1 percent, compared to 7.5 percent a year ago.
* Interest rates are stable, so government can borrow at very low rates, enabling it to finance its operations and infrastructure projects that provide employment and income to many workers.
* Foreign trade is up, and the balance of payments negativity is improving. The Census Bureau reported an international trade balance of minus $44.4 billion in May, an improvement from the minus $47.0 billion in April as exports increased and imports decreased.
* Finally, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said the federal budget for the coming year would boost the economy over for the next decade, and the economic effect will "feed back into the budget in ways that would reduce deficits."

   True, GDP figures showed a drop in output early this year, but that could be a springtime pause before a summer bloom.
   Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve noted that in all twelve districts surveyed in its July report, the regional economies "continued to expand."

   A mash of numbers can be stupefying, and reports of encouraging signs can be meaningless to those still out of work. Even so, it's useful to look for hints of improvement in order to build some confidence.
   
   Recession is when my neighbor loses a job. Depression is when I lose mine.
   If I grasp enough straws, maybe I can build a boat.