Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Global No Go-Go

"Is a puzzlement," said the king.

   Economic growth worldwide is "weak and uneven," with some countries still struggling to pull up from a downturn, according to a report from the International Monetary Fund. Others, including the U.S., the UK and Canada, are doing reasonably well, but some in Europe are barely in a growth mode, the IMF said.
   The IMF has urged further stimulus, but some government officials in Germany have challenged the suggestion that an "infrastructure push" will help stave off another downturn. And they continued their call for stiffer, conservative measures by other countries to balance their budgets. Even so, Chancellor Angela Merkel is reportedly looking for ways to stimulate growth without boosting government spending.
   Meanwhile, China's booming growth rate of 7 percent yearly may be leveling off, the IMF report said, to a more sustainable rate.
   Overall, however, the worldwide economic outlook has a tepid future. Global growth is likely to average 3.3 percent this year, the IMF said, unchanged from 2013. And "the legacies of the pre-crisis boom and the subsequent recession," the IMF analysis said, "still cast a shadow on the recovery." As a result, "global growth is still mediocre," the IMF said, with wide variations among countries.
   According to the IMF report, the U.S. will finish this year with a GDP growth rate of 2.2 percent, the UK with 3.2 percent, and Canada with 2.3 percent.
   Germany, however, will post an increase of 1.4 percent, while France will barely squeak forward at 0.4 percent. Spain will finally post a positive rate of 1.3 percent, but Italy will still be negative at -0.2 percent. The entire euro area is likely to post a GDP growth of 0.8 percent.
   All together, the IMF said the global forecast is disappointing, and its World Economic Outlook report noted an "increase in downside risks."

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