Friday, October 3, 2014

Raising Keynes

If you can't say it in 500 words, you can't say it.

Say what you have to say, be done with it, finish and get out.

   President Obama spoke for almost an hour on the economy yesterday afternoon, in what the White House had touted as a major speech, but after 30 minutes CNN cut away from live coverage. After 40 minutes, MSNBC dropped out. Bloomberg TV held on for another 10 minutes, but then they gave up hope that he would say anything new.
   The talk was a recitation of the accomplishments of the past few years as the American economy began its recovery, but even so, most of the recitation was a list of things that happened in the private sector; little was said about any government efforts in reviving the economy from the Great Recession.
   Moral: Take a hint from FDR's strategy of his occasional "Fireside Chats" via radio to the American public in the 1930s and 1940s. Do it when you have something to say, say it and be done with it. Prattle on too long or too often and you lose the audience as well as credibility.

   That said, the crux of the speech was this: The economy's improving, but we're not yet where we could be. The President listed several "cornerstones" to help improve things for the middle class. These were 1/ energy and technology, 2/ education and training, 3/ health care reform, and 4/ finance reform.
   All these programs are already in place. However, Obama asserted, "The gains of recovery are not shared enough, and growth could be faster with the help of Congress." Moreover, in a reference to growing inequality, he noted that a "shrinking few are doing very well," while a growing many still struggle.
   "This is not a formula for sustained growth," Obama said.

   So while the President was praising the status of economic recovery even as he said little about government efforts to support improvement, the International Monetary Fund released a report that said "the time is right for an infrastructure push" by government.
   "Borrowing costs are low and demand is weak," the IMF report said, and there are infrastructure bottlenecks that need to be cleared. "Public infrastructure is an essential factor of production," the IMF added, and increasing public investment "raises output in the short and long term, particularly during periods of economic slack and when investment efficiency is high."
   And if done correctly, the IMF stressed, "public infrastructure could pay for itself." Put another way, the more that Gilded Agers call for austerity and cuts in spending, the more urgent government action becomes.

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