Sunday, November 15, 2015

Isolationism Redux

No man is an island, entire of itself.
Neither is a nation.

Walls and blockades don't work. Trade does.

   The U.S. economy is approaching a healthy growth pace, but many other nations are stalled on the path to prosperity, including several important trading partners in Europe, Asia and Latin America.
   Even so, in the misguided belief that an isolated country is a secure country, conservatives are demanding protective walls, both physical and economic, to isolate America from the rest of the world.
   American isolationism failed in the 1920s and 1930s. In fact, the Smoot-Hawley tariff barriers only led to retaliation by other trading nations, and all sides suffered. Moreover, isolationist thinking at the time went hand in hand with bigotry and suppression of minority groups as well as efforts to replace democracy with authoritarianism. There have been at least three books published on that danger, only two of which were fiction: "It Can't Happen Here," by Sinclair Lewis (1935), "The Plot Against America," by Philip Roth (2004), and "The Plot to Seize the White House," by Jules Archer (1973). The first two are fictionalized novels of real possibilities, and the third documents a real conspiracy. All three deal with isolationist radicals of the 1930s who were determined to close all borders and build a Fortress America.
   Isolationist thinking fails to consider international reality.   
   The Great Wall of China, so highly praised by Donald J. Trump, was built by an emperor. The Iron Curtain and the Berlin Wall were built by Communist dictators. And the U.S. blockade of Cuba not only failed to overthrow the Castro regime, but also worsened the poverty of the Cuban people.
   Erecting a wall to keep out Mexicans is not only impractical and racist (no Canadian wall has been suggested), but will only make things worse for America's southern neighbors.
   If conservative politicians have their way and isolate the nation as a way to "retrieve" jobs from other countries and kick start a surge in American manufacturing, the strategy may enjoy short-term success, but if the retrieved jobs are lost by other trading partners, workers there will be unable to buy. In short, an isolationist policy, like its mercantilist ancestor, is self-defeating. To think an isolationist economy can survive and thrive on its own is a pipe dream.
   The Great Wall in China, the Iron Curtain and the Berlin Wall in Europe, as well as the Cuban Blockade, all throttled economic growth and severely harmed people's rights in all those insulated countries.
   Walls and trade barriers are built by insecure dictators and repressive regimes unsure of their own security. They mislead their citizens into believing the folly that success comes in isolation.
  That way madness lies.

   Basic economic analysis and practice shows that mutual trade benefits all trading partners. No modern nation can long endure in a standalone economy.
   With that in mind, take note that in the European Union, despite its open borders and a currency common to 19 of its 28 members, growth has been essentially flat this year, leading to speculation that the European Central Bank will boost its economic stimulus program yet again, by lowering interest rates.
   In turn, this will give pause to the U.S. Federal Reserve, and delay its plan to pull back from its stimulus program.
   If the European Central Bank continues its efforts through a low-interest rate policy because growth is too slow, the Fed probably will do likewise, not as a follower, but in a realistic awareness that the U.S. cannot remain an island.

No comments:

Post a Comment