Saturday, May 14, 2016

Perspective

The current population of the United States is double the 152 million counted in 1950.

   To say that a candidate has won more votes in primary elections than any other candidate in the party's history may be a true statement. But it is also true that the voting population is larger than ever.
   Further, it is also true that the percentage of party voters favoring a particular candidate is only 5 percent this year.
   So if the total voter population soars, any candidate will get more votes, even if the percentage of those turning out to vote remains the same. Gross numbers are important, of course, but an equally important point is the percentage of those eligible actually voting for any single candidate.
   TV commentator Rachel Maddow made much of the fact that Donald Trump attracted more votes in primary elections so far this year than any other Republican, ever, and there are still several primary elections remaining. But as the population grows, it follows that more people will vote, even if the voter participation rate remains the same, or even lower.
   For example, the U.S. Census Bureau reported a year ago that the number of unmarried women of voting age more than doubled from 1978 to 2014, from 27.7 million to 56.8 million. The registration rate for that group rose from 58.6 percent in 1978 to 60.5 percent in 2014. But the percentage of those who actually voted faded, from 39.2 percent to 35.6 percent.
   However, in the last presidential election year, 2012, the percentage of unmarried women who registered was 68.6 percent and the turnout rate was 57.8 percent. Moral: A set of some 60 million potential voters is not one to be ignored or insulted.
   Meanwhile, it was reported that Trump collected just 4.7 percent of Republican voters in primary contests so far this year. That's lower than the rate counted by Mitt Romney four years ago.
   The Pew Research Center said that in 2012, "nearly 18.8 million people voted in 39 Republican primaries, or 9.8 percent of eligible voters. Mitt Romney won 30 states (plus DC), with 9.8 million votes -- representing just 5.1 percent of eligible voters in the primary states."
   This implies that either 95 percent of Republican voters opposed the candidate, or that many voters did not bother to show up.
   As it is, only about 60 percent of eligible voters turn out on Election Day in November.
   Even so, as the total population grows, any candidate is likely to gather more votes, despite a decline in the voter participation rate.
   Want more numbers? Nearly 133 million people voted in the last presidential election year, 2012, compared to 105 million in 1996, according to Census Bureau data. And the voter participation rate ranged from 58 percent in 1996 to a high of 64 percent in 2012.
   So it seems that more than one-third of American citizens eligible and registered to vote don't bother to show up for presidential elections. And the turnout rate is worse during off-year, non-presidential elections.
   All this as the American population continues to grow, to 323.5 million currently, according to a Census Bureau estimate, from the 310.2 million in the formal census of 2010, and 282 million in 2000.

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