Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Bor-ing

   One of the challenges reporters face is maintaining attention when politicians speak. Or to use a more descriptive word, "yammer."
   A second challenge is to translate the political gobbledygook into plain language so readers and listeners can readily understand what was said. This is not to say reporters should always explain what the yammerer meant, although that can be part of the job, to list potential consequences of the talk.
   Quite often, the news is not in what the yammerer said, but in what was not said.
   During a Senate hearing, Jeh Johnson, former secretary of Homeland Security, said there was little evidence that Russia had succeeded in changing ballot results during last November's election. This is not to say, however, that they didn't try. Nor is it to say that they didn't attempt to manipulate public opinion. Every U.S. intelligence agency agreed that they did attempt to influence the election.
   Whether they succeeded is another question. But did they try? Absolutely, yes.
   Nevertheless, cable news outlets picked up on the brief acknowledgment that there was no evidence of ballot machine tampering. And the conclusion drawn by many conservatives will be that there was no tampering at all, ever, of any kind.
   As for ballot machine tampering, consider how many voting districts there are in America. Then consider how many have machine voting, versus paper ballots. Of the machine voting, how many use machines from the same manufacturer. Also, do they all use the same or similar software.
   Considering that there are 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, each having numerous election districts, which in turn operate independently and have their own balloting processes, and it becomes clear that manipulating a system that varied and complex is so complicated and difficult as to be nearly impossible. There are 435 congressional districts, one for each member of the House of Representatives. Within each of those districts, there can be several counties and numerous municipalities, each of which may have its own voting system, whether machines or paper balloting.
   All of this deals with just the popular vote. The more important count is the electoral vote, and with clever manipulation, a candidate can focus on just a few states where the outcome is a tossup, and thus win the electoral vote for the presidency despite losing the popular vote.
   So as for manipulating the presidential election last November, the questions are these:
   Did the Russians try? Yes.
   Did they succeed? Probably not, since the balloting system nationwide is so complex.
   Did they change the vote count? Doubtful, since there's no sure way to tell.
   Finally, did their efforts influence public opinion, in turn influencing the voting patterns? Hard to tell, but the answer is probably yes.
   Either way, the country has a new president, whose team worked the system successfully. Whether congressional investigators can find ways to get him out of the White House is the really big issue the nation now faces.

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