Changing Presidents

   There has been a lot of talk recently about removing the current president, either through impeachment or by invoking the 25th Amendment to the Constitution.
   But what is the likelihood of either happening?
   Not good, actually, given the current makeup of the Cabinet and the Congress. And unless that changes, he will probably remain in office for at least another year.
   Here's why: The 25th Amendment calls for the president to send a written declaration to Congress that he is unable to do the job, and until he sends another letter saying that is again able, the vice president becomes acting president and steps aside so the president can take over again.
   Don't make any bets that this president will voluntarily leave.
   Alternatively, if the vice president and members of the Cabinet (or some other group that Congress sets up) write to Congress that the president can no longer do his job, the vice president can take over. Again, however, the president can reclaim his office by writing to Congress that his inability no longer exists.
   But that claim can be challenged by the vice president and allies in the Cabinet, and they have four days to do so. In turn, Congress has 48 hours to decide the issue. If Congress is not in session, they have 21 days to get together and choose by a two-thirds vote of both houses that the president can't do his job. 
   If that happens, the vice president stays on the job as acting president. If the vote fails, the president moves back in to the Oval Office.
   Given the current make up of the Cabinet -- all president appointees, and the Congress, dominated by Republicans in both houses -- the odds of them saying "You're fired" to one of their own are slim.
   Likewise, the odds of an impeachment process being initiated are slim, since impeachment charges must be brought by the House, and then put to trial in the Senate.
   Unless the makeup of the House and the Senate changes later this year in the 2018 elections. Even so, if Democrats are very successful, they won't take their seats in Congress until January 2019. Then the impeachment process can start.
  There is, of course, the possibility that the Republican-dominated Congress will bring impeachment charges before that, and there is the possibility that the Cabinet, or such other body that the Congress designates for the job, will invoke the 25th Amendment and declare the president incompetent and unable to do the job.
   He will reject the accusations, of course, and then the fun begins.
   Either way, don't hold your breath. The way things stand now, it's likely that he'll stay in office until voted out in November 2020. Even then, his term won't end until January 20, 2021.
   Unless the Cabinet and Congress decide to push him out via the 25th Amendment or impeachment. Until then, the news media will stay on the story.