Exit Doors

The bigger they are, the harder they fall.

   There can be no harder fall than to be ousted in disgrace from the Oval Office. But will that happen to its current occupant? That's the major question facing America these days.
   There are several possibilities, but if any one of them fails in its mission, the president will have another victory to praise about himself.
   The worst case would be for him to be voted out of office, then prosecuted for criminal offenses perpetrated while he was in office, convicted and imprisoned.
   That would make him the ultimate loser, a term that is anathema to his ego.
   Impeachment this year carries several major risks, and failure would enable still more cries of "Victory!"
   1/ Such a move may not pass the House of Representatives, and would be branded a partisan effort by Democrats.
   Result: Victory number one.
   2/ Even if the House does impeach him, the Senate may not convict and order him out office.
   Result: Victory number two.
   3/ Impeachment efforts in the past have failed to result in conviction, and in the case of President Bill Clinton contributed to his re-election, which may happen for the current president.
   Result: Victory number three.
   
   Now consider some alternatives.
   Wait while the evidence of wrongdoing accumulates, persuading Republican supporters to abandon him and support impeachment by the House, conviction by the Senate and removal from office.
   Or support efforts to defeat a re-election bid, after which he could be prosecuted for federal crimes allegedly committed. Department of Justice policy now does not allow prosecution of a sitting president.
   Meanwhile, he could be prosecuted for state offenses, but that would bring more howls of partisan bloviating.
   If he be successfully impeached this year and removed from office, what would prevent him from running again in the election to be held in November 2020?
 Easy answer: No, says the Constitution. Article 1, Section 3 states, "Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, trust or profit under the United States."
   In addition, the Constitution specifies that "the party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law."
   In short, unlike what the president seems to believe, impeachment and the legal process are entirely separate. He was heard saying that he would watch as impeachment efforts "go through the courts."
  So could he run for office again if he defeats an impeachment move?
   Possibly, unless he is also prosecuted and convicted in federal court or in a state court, which would bring a criminal record. Not a good background to have for a political candidate. Keep in mind, however, that this would likely be characterized as persecution by political opponents, and resoundingly denied by the candidate.
   Moreover, even if he is impeached and removed from office, Constitutional scholars suggest that the Senate would have to separately disqualify him from holding another office.

   So what's the best course to take? That's up to voters and congressional delegates to decide.

   Perhaps the best choice would be the one most likely to end with the term "Loser" attached to his name. Any one of the above would serve that purpose well.