Friday, June 7, 2019

Warning Signs

A recession is when you lose your job.
A depression is when I lose mine. -- Pug Mahoney.

   "Things look great, but ..." was the key phrase of my last posting about the U.S. economy, as noted by the International Monetary Fund.
   Then came a report that only 75,000 jobs were added in America last month. Earlier this year, the average monthly gain was double that rate -- 164,000 -- and last year it was nearly triple -- 223,000.
   But you wouldn't know it from the opening paragraph of the government announcement, which touted the gain but didn't mention the comparison until the tenth paragraph.
   The unemployment rate, meanwhile, held at 3.6 percent in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, and the total of unemployed people was little changed at 5.9 million.
   So what does it all mean? As suggested in other reports, this is evidence that the economy may well be slowing, after the longest stretch of growth in many decades.
   Is it time, then, for things to take a break, and will the Federal Reserve Board step in to lower interest rates as its way of staving off a serious problem?
   That, as the saying goes, remains to be seen, and there will be no predictions from this corner.
   However, it is highly likely that the White House will claim credit for what it will call a continuing boom, and will blast any suggestion of a slowdown as "fake news," even as it faults the Fed for any attempt to stall any major gyration in the economy.

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