Economic Wreck

   To say that the national economy is heading for a crash is perhaps an understatement.
   A projection from the Congressional Budget Office puts the decline at minus 3.5 percent for the first three months of this year and estimates the second quarter drop to be a negative 38.7 percent. By definition, two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP (gross domestic product) equals an economic recession. And depending on the harshness of the drop, a downturn is called a Great Recession, as happened some 12 years ago, or the Great Depression, which describes the catastrophe of the early 1930s.
   The question now becomes whether the nation and the world is stumbling into an economic pit to match or exceed either of those two 20th Century disasters.
   Even the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board has testified before Congress that the downturn could well last through the rest of this year. This conflicts with the CBO projection for a sharp recovery of some 22 percent in the third quarter and another 10 percent as the year ends, with substantial recovery continuing throughout next year.
   Will it happen? And what will the consequences be to politicians running for office this year?
   In the past, the party in office during an economic downturn typically is turned out and replaced by those promising a return to prosperity. And during the campaign, they blame the incumbents for failing to prevent the crash or refusing to do enough to alleviate the problem and help the economy recover.
   This year, however, is different. The downturn is largely because of a national shutdown to combat the effects of the corona virus plague. Nonetheless, the incumbent party leaders -- this year, the Republicans -- blame the political opposition -- Democrats -- for all the woes afflicting America in an effort to distract attention from their own failures.
   Will they succeed? That will depend on the gullibility of American voters.