Tuesday, December 8, 2020

Second Term

   There remain two events that would enable Donald Trump to remain in office after January 20 for a second term as president.
   First, the Electoral College, which will formally meet on Monday, December 14, will choose one of the two candidates.
   Second, the electoral vote will be presented to a joint session of Congress on January 6, at which time acceptance of the electoral vote finalizes the choice for the presidency.
   But.
   Suppose the electors do not honor their pledge to vote for Joe Biden as the next president, and select Trump instead?
   Secondly, even if they do keep their promises and support Biden, the choice is not final until accepted by Congress.
   And suppose Congress does not accept the electoral tally?
   What then?
   Would the issue go to the Supreme Court, which has a six to three Republican majority, three of whose members were chosen by Trump?
   So it is indeed possible -- remotely, but possible -- that Trump's unyielding fight to stay in office may succeed. Is it likely that he will win, as he consistently insists he did win re-election?
   Probably not likely. But it is possible, if his team can persuade enough electors to change their promises to vote for Biden and to vote for Trump instead.
   And if they do uphold their promises, will the Congress accept the result?
   It sounds far-fetched, but history shows that similar things have happened in the past, as electors changed their promises or that a tie in the electoral college moved the final choice to the House of Representatives.
   You can look it up.
   So if it happens again, which way will the Supreme Court go, if the case ends up before the nine justices?

   Meanwhile, the Supreme Court summarily denied a request by Pennsylvania Republicans to hear their challenge to the result in that state. It was a single sentence, unsigned. which no doubt means that all nine justices agreed. It remains to be seen whether team Trump will try again.
   All this may explain why the Trump team continues to ignore being 80 million votes behind in the popular vote and a substantial lag in the potential electoral tally.
   It ain't over until it's over, and it won't be until the Congressional ninth inning on January 6. And even then it may go to extra innings.
   We live in interesting times.

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