Patterns

    The first signs of an economic downturn flashed today as the government reported a dip of 1.4 percent in Gross Domestic Product for the first three months of the year.
   Officially, it takes two consecutive fiscal quarters of decline to established an economic recession.
   This is the first sign of an economic downturn to blink at those who watch for such things. The first quarter dip follows a leap of 6.9 percent in the previous three months.
   Some observers had thought we would not see the first decline until the end of June, the second fiscal quarter of this year. But the Federal Reserve Board had already seen signs of an upcoming decline a few weeks ago, when it pushed up interest rates to combat inflation.
   Two weeks ago, this column wrote that "savings rates are rising, encouraging people to reduce spending, especially if prices remain high. Result: Economic decline."
   Savings institutions have already increased their interest rates, which will encourage people to set more money aside as they cut back on spending. The problem here, of course, is that as spending declines, production also dips to follow the drop in demand. And as production declines, income follows.
  The economic Law of Supply and Demand has not been repealed.
  The political implications of all this are that Republicans will blame the current president, Democrat Joe Biden, for the economic woes of the nation. The second fiscal quarter of this year will end in June, and the results will be posted a few weeks later, just as pre-election campaigning is about to start.
   The third quarter, which ends September 30, will also feed Republican zest for things to blame on Democrats, especially if the national economy does not fully recover from its first quarter dip and the second quarter shows another decline. The GOP would thus blame Democrats for an economic recession.
   One result could be that Democrats would lose a few Congressional seats, thus giving Republicans control, and enabling the GOP to promise they will rescue the economy.
   But.
   The GOP has made that promise many times in the past, and most recessions in the past 80 years have hit while a Republican was in the White House and the GOP was strong in Congress.
   The kicker here is that as the GOP blocks any move to boost the economy, they then accuse Democrats of causing a decline, so they can regain political control.
   Can you say, hypocrisy?

   I knew you could.