There have been a dozen economic downturns in America since the Great Depression of the early 1930s. All but three occurred under Democratic presidents, and those three were short and mild.
The first two were postwar adjustments during the Truman years, and the third was in 1980, a six-month dip of 1 percent when Jimmy Carter was president.
All the rest happened when Republican presidents were in power, and these included what came to be called the Great Recession during 2007, when George W. Bush was president.
(Note: The past three declines in output happened during the years when a Bush was president -- father or son.)
Now, after 15 years of a growing economy, America may be facing a decline, and some experts say the seeds of the failure were planted during the administration of Republican Donald Trump, who was more interested in harvesting his own wealth than seeing to the economic growth of the average worker.
That remains to be seen, since investigations of his activities are continuing.
Meanwhile, there are reports that economists warn a recession is on the way, partly due to supply shortages because of the war in Ukraine, as well as repercussions from covid-19 as manufacturers cut back production and consumers reduce spending because of rising prices.
Several surveys of economic experts say a third or more of them see a downturn within a year.
It's too early to tell for sure, since the standard definition of a recession requires a dip in national production for two consecutive fiscal quarters. We won't see the first decline -- if it happens -- until the end of June. That means there must be a second decline in the three months ending in September.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Board is pushing up interest rates as its way of combating inflation -- read, rising prices -- and banks are already beginning to boost the rates they pay to savers. The savings rate has been less than 1 percent, while credit card rates on purchases are more than 20 percent.
But if savings rates rise, that will encourage people to reduce their spending, especially if prices remain high. Result: Economic decline.
Be careful what you wish for. You may get it.
The first two were postwar adjustments during the Truman years, and the third was in 1980, a six-month dip of 1 percent when Jimmy Carter was president.
All the rest happened when Republican presidents were in power, and these included what came to be called the Great Recession during 2007, when George W. Bush was president.
(Note: The past three declines in output happened during the years when a Bush was president -- father or son.)
Now, after 15 years of a growing economy, America may be facing a decline, and some experts say the seeds of the failure were planted during the administration of Republican Donald Trump, who was more interested in harvesting his own wealth than seeing to the economic growth of the average worker.
That remains to be seen, since investigations of his activities are continuing.
Meanwhile, there are reports that economists warn a recession is on the way, partly due to supply shortages because of the war in Ukraine, as well as repercussions from covid-19 as manufacturers cut back production and consumers reduce spending because of rising prices.
Several surveys of economic experts say a third or more of them see a downturn within a year.
It's too early to tell for sure, since the standard definition of a recession requires a dip in national production for two consecutive fiscal quarters. We won't see the first decline -- if it happens -- until the end of June. That means there must be a second decline in the three months ending in September.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Board is pushing up interest rates as its way of combating inflation -- read, rising prices -- and banks are already beginning to boost the rates they pay to savers. The savings rate has been less than 1 percent, while credit card rates on purchases are more than 20 percent.
But if savings rates rise, that will encourage people to reduce their spending, especially if prices remain high. Result: Economic decline.
Be careful what you wish for. You may get it.
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