Follow the bouncing data points.
Why? All that bouncing is confusing.
There are signs that the U.S. economy is improving, but such a sharp swing from a 2 percent drop in the first quarter to a 4 percent leap in the second three months of the year leads one to question the accuracy of the survey.
However, it's important to keep in mind that the first estimate -- which is the 4 percent growth rate that the Commerce Department just reported -- is an early number, and first estimates are inevitably revised as larger amounts of survey data join the parade.
Meanwhile, the same day the GDP number came out, The Federal Reserve noted that while things look pretty good, the job market could be better, the housing recovery "remains slow," and fiscal policy "is restraining economic growth."
Even so, the Fed will scale back its money pump to $10 billion monthly, from $15 billion, beginning in August.
Separately, the Census Bureau reported that both the homeownership rate and the housing rental rate in America faded in the second quarter. Taken together, this suggests that people are buying less and staying longer in rental units. It figures. When families are not confident about their future earning power, they hesitate to commit to a long term mortgage and decide to wait until things improve.
And for what it's worth, the International Monetary Fund expects the economy in Japan to grow by 1.6 percent this year. China's growth was 7.7 percent last year and will likely be almost as much this year, but the nation "would benefit from slower but safer growth."
In Europe, the United Kingdom economy "has rebounded strongly and prospects are promising," the IMF said. "Nonetheless, sustaining strong growth will depend on a recovery in productivity growth and real wages," the IMF said.
A recovery is also under way in Germany, the IMF noted. And the outlook for France is for "a gradual recovery," with GDP growth expected to by almost 1 percent this year and 1.4 percent in 2015.
So it seems the Great Recession is increasingly a thing of the past, as is the Great Depression of the 1930s. Whether both remain ghostly or ghastly memories is another matter. Either may yet come back to haunt, especially if policy makers and corporate geniuses fail to keep remembrances of things past.
Thursday, July 31, 2014
Saturday, July 26, 2014
The Power of Twelve
There are:
12 inches in a foot
12 months in a year
12 grades in the American school system
12 signs of the zodiac
12 items in a dozen
12 pence in a shilling
12 people on a jury
12 districts in the U.S. Federal Reserve bank system
12 tribes of Israel
12 apostles in Christianity, which borrowed the idea from
12 apostles in Mithraism
12 labors of Hercules, imposed as punishment
12 days to the Christmas season, from Yule to Epiphany
12 steps to humility (St. Benedict, 520 A.D.)
12 steps of pride (St. Bernard of Clairveaux, 1130 A.D.)
12 steps to sobriety (Bill Miller, founder of AA, 1937)
12 parts to the Boy Scout Law (Trustworthy, loyal, etc.)
12 tones in the chromatic musical scale
12 bars in standard blues music
12 animals in the Chinese cycle of years (rat, ox, tiger, etc.)
12 times 2 = 24 hours in a day
12 times 5 = 60 minutes in an hour
12 times 30 = 360 degrees in a circle
12 times 10 = 120 beats per minute, the standard military marching pace
12 times 10 = 120, the optimum systolic blood pressure
12 volts in automobile electrical systems
12 was the base for early mathematics
12 chairs in the Mel Brooks movie based on a Russian folk tale
12 Monkeys, another movie, by Terry Gilliam
12 Years a Slave, a book and a movie
12 strands in a DNA sequence
Finally, the atomic weight of carbon, the base of all life forms on earth, is 12.01
12 inches in a foot
12 months in a year
12 grades in the American school system
12 signs of the zodiac
12 items in a dozen
12 pence in a shilling
12 people on a jury
12 districts in the U.S. Federal Reserve bank system
12 tribes of Israel
12 apostles in Christianity, which borrowed the idea from
12 apostles in Mithraism
12 labors of Hercules, imposed as punishment
12 days to the Christmas season, from Yule to Epiphany
12 steps to humility (St. Benedict, 520 A.D.)
12 steps of pride (St. Bernard of Clairveaux, 1130 A.D.)
12 steps to sobriety (Bill Miller, founder of AA, 1937)
12 parts to the Boy Scout Law (Trustworthy, loyal, etc.)
12 tones in the chromatic musical scale
12 bars in standard blues music
12 animals in the Chinese cycle of years (rat, ox, tiger, etc.)
12 times 2 = 24 hours in a day
12 times 5 = 60 minutes in an hour
12 times 30 = 360 degrees in a circle
12 times 10 = 120 beats per minute, the standard military marching pace
12 times 10 = 120, the optimum systolic blood pressure
12 volts in automobile electrical systems
12 was the base for early mathematics
12 chairs in the Mel Brooks movie based on a Russian folk tale
12 Monkeys, another movie, by Terry Gilliam
12 Years a Slave, a book and a movie
12 strands in a DNA sequence
Finally, the atomic weight of carbon, the base of all life forms on earth, is 12.01
Friday, July 25, 2014
3 R Socialism
Pay it forward to the next generation even as previous generations paid it for you.
No one seriously doubts the value of universal basic education, publicly funded and available to all. The ability to read, write and calculate is essential in any modern society. Call it 3 R Socialism.
So if the social benefits of basic education for all is not disputed, neither should the social benefits of universal basic health care. The exceptionist doubters, however, come largely from the for-profit insurance industry and those who have a knee-jerk opposition to regulation of any kind, especially by government.
Few can deny the need for government sponsorship and/or regulation of many other fields, including public education, police and fire protection, national defense, road and bridge construction and maintenance, air traffic control, water and sewage service, food and drug purity, and licensing of professionals such as physicians and nurses, plumbers, electricians and teachers, as well as auto and truck drivers, and airline pilots. Take away these and other functions of government and the result is chaos.
However, there are still many who preach the value of pure, unfettered and unregulated free market capitalism, and these are the same troglodytes who oppose a government-sponsored health care system in the name of protecting the free enterprise of a for-profit insurance industry.
The reality is that fully free, uncontrolled and unregulated capitalism not only doesn't work, but no longer exists, and hasn't for many years. For that matter, neither does a fully controlled socialist system, because there is little incentive to innovate and produce more than a pre-set, government established quota.
Unfettered greed sends free market capitalism toppling, as it did several times during the 19th Century. It brought on the Great Depression of the 20th Century as well as the Great Recession and the widespread fiscal crisis of the 21st Century.
Soviet style socialism, also known as communism, failed for reasons beyond the stifling of incentive. For one thing, it was imposed on a Russian feudal society, attempting to leap directly to the dream of a socialist economy, bypassing any Industrial Revolution such as occurred in Britain and German. This is what Karl Marx had in mind when he wrote of the inevitable collapse of capitalism. In fact, he was specific in saying that it would not and could not happen in Russia, because that country was still operating in a feudal economy.
Moreover, while Marx did describe the rise of labor unions, he did not foresee that management would come to a cooperative agreement with labor to the benefit of both sides.
So what we have in America is a mixed economy, combining elements of a free enterprise system with essential controls by government.
But this is a digression only to describe the problem of uncontrolled for-profit industries -- in this instance, health insurance.
In the current system in America, there are hundreds of private enterprise firms offering a bewildering array of health insurance policies, all with varying payment systems and amounts for the many medical issues that the company chooses to cover. Or not.
To cope with this, many physicians must hire extra staff to handle and process claims and rejections, supply referrals to other physicians for needed care, make followup calls to clarify issues and attempt to get payment from the many companies and policies that must be dealt with.
There is also a widespread practice in the industry of instructing employees to routinely reject claims, thus delaying payment in the hope that the applicant will give up and go away.
In the words of one physician, "I just want to practice medicine." Instead, the profiteers force the profession to boost fees to hire extra staff to process the paperwork.
Would a single-payer system resolve all the problems? Possibly not, but such systems work reasonably well in other major countries, including Canada, Britain and other nations. Meanwhile, America spends more on health care per person than any other major country, yet has one of the worst outcomes.
Health care, like public education, is a social benefit. It's too important to left entirely, solely and completely to the private sector.
No one seriously doubts the value of universal basic education, publicly funded and available to all. The ability to read, write and calculate is essential in any modern society. Call it 3 R Socialism.
So if the social benefits of basic education for all is not disputed, neither should the social benefits of universal basic health care. The exceptionist doubters, however, come largely from the for-profit insurance industry and those who have a knee-jerk opposition to regulation of any kind, especially by government.
Few can deny the need for government sponsorship and/or regulation of many other fields, including public education, police and fire protection, national defense, road and bridge construction and maintenance, air traffic control, water and sewage service, food and drug purity, and licensing of professionals such as physicians and nurses, plumbers, electricians and teachers, as well as auto and truck drivers, and airline pilots. Take away these and other functions of government and the result is chaos.
However, there are still many who preach the value of pure, unfettered and unregulated free market capitalism, and these are the same troglodytes who oppose a government-sponsored health care system in the name of protecting the free enterprise of a for-profit insurance industry.
The reality is that fully free, uncontrolled and unregulated capitalism not only doesn't work, but no longer exists, and hasn't for many years. For that matter, neither does a fully controlled socialist system, because there is little incentive to innovate and produce more than a pre-set, government established quota.
Unfettered greed sends free market capitalism toppling, as it did several times during the 19th Century. It brought on the Great Depression of the 20th Century as well as the Great Recession and the widespread fiscal crisis of the 21st Century.
Soviet style socialism, also known as communism, failed for reasons beyond the stifling of incentive. For one thing, it was imposed on a Russian feudal society, attempting to leap directly to the dream of a socialist economy, bypassing any Industrial Revolution such as occurred in Britain and German. This is what Karl Marx had in mind when he wrote of the inevitable collapse of capitalism. In fact, he was specific in saying that it would not and could not happen in Russia, because that country was still operating in a feudal economy.
Moreover, while Marx did describe the rise of labor unions, he did not foresee that management would come to a cooperative agreement with labor to the benefit of both sides.
So what we have in America is a mixed economy, combining elements of a free enterprise system with essential controls by government.
But this is a digression only to describe the problem of uncontrolled for-profit industries -- in this instance, health insurance.
In the current system in America, there are hundreds of private enterprise firms offering a bewildering array of health insurance policies, all with varying payment systems and amounts for the many medical issues that the company chooses to cover. Or not.
To cope with this, many physicians must hire extra staff to handle and process claims and rejections, supply referrals to other physicians for needed care, make followup calls to clarify issues and attempt to get payment from the many companies and policies that must be dealt with.
There is also a widespread practice in the industry of instructing employees to routinely reject claims, thus delaying payment in the hope that the applicant will give up and go away.
In the words of one physician, "I just want to practice medicine." Instead, the profiteers force the profession to boost fees to hire extra staff to process the paperwork.
Would a single-payer system resolve all the problems? Possibly not, but such systems work reasonably well in other major countries, including Canada, Britain and other nations. Meanwhile, America spends more on health care per person than any other major country, yet has one of the worst outcomes.
Health care, like public education, is a social benefit. It's too important to left entirely, solely and completely to the private sector.
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Priorities
Cooperation and compromise go a long way.
Despite a harsh winter and a "still-struggling housing market, an inventory correction, and slower external demand," the International Monetary Fund reported today, economic momentum faded in America.
Even so, the IMF said, "the U.S. recovery is gathering steam, but managing the exit from zero interest rates and boosting potential growth remain top priorities."
As noted here yesterday, a drop in GDP growth earlier this year could be just a pause before a summer bloom, and confidence can be a major force for improvement. The IMF reported today that the group "expects growth to accelerate in the remainder of the year," probably in the 3 percent to 3.5 percent range, "as employment improves, firms boost production, sales and orders of durable goods pick up, and confidence returns."
However, "the large drag from the first quarter contraction" (a drop of 2.9 percent in GDP), "will be tough to offset, ... and growth for the year as a whole will be a disappointing 1.7 percent."
Meanwhile, almost 50 million Americans "still live in poverty," the IMF continued, and this includes almost one-in-four American children." To bring this number down, the IMF report urged an increased minimum wage and an expanded Earned Income Tax Credit to help solve the problem.
And among other things, the IMF called for a more flexible fiscal plan so the government can help support economic growth, reduce poverty, rein in health care costs, increase tax revenues and reform Social Security.
A tall order. But one that must be filled if the U.S. is to achieve stable but steady economic growth and prosperity, assisted by government investment. "Without further policy interventions, the IMF expects potential growth to level off at around 2 percent in the coming years," the report said. These policies should include more investment in infrastructure, improved education, a better tax system, building a skilled labor force (including through immigration reform, job training and childcare assistance for working families), the report said. For more, visit the IMF web site, at www.imf.org.
So it may be easy to list what should be done, but it's a lot harder to estimate what will be done. Clearly, cooperation and agreement on goals, without being hampered by political bickering, will go a long way toward dealing with America's economic issues.
Despite a harsh winter and a "still-struggling housing market, an inventory correction, and slower external demand," the International Monetary Fund reported today, economic momentum faded in America.
Even so, the IMF said, "the U.S. recovery is gathering steam, but managing the exit from zero interest rates and boosting potential growth remain top priorities."
As noted here yesterday, a drop in GDP growth earlier this year could be just a pause before a summer bloom, and confidence can be a major force for improvement. The IMF reported today that the group "expects growth to accelerate in the remainder of the year," probably in the 3 percent to 3.5 percent range, "as employment improves, firms boost production, sales and orders of durable goods pick up, and confidence returns."
However, "the large drag from the first quarter contraction" (a drop of 2.9 percent in GDP), "will be tough to offset, ... and growth for the year as a whole will be a disappointing 1.7 percent."
Meanwhile, almost 50 million Americans "still live in poverty," the IMF continued, and this includes almost one-in-four American children." To bring this number down, the IMF report urged an increased minimum wage and an expanded Earned Income Tax Credit to help solve the problem.
And among other things, the IMF called for a more flexible fiscal plan so the government can help support economic growth, reduce poverty, rein in health care costs, increase tax revenues and reform Social Security.
A tall order. But one that must be filled if the U.S. is to achieve stable but steady economic growth and prosperity, assisted by government investment. "Without further policy interventions, the IMF expects potential growth to level off at around 2 percent in the coming years," the report said. These policies should include more investment in infrastructure, improved education, a better tax system, building a skilled labor force (including through immigration reform, job training and childcare assistance for working families), the report said. For more, visit the IMF web site, at www.imf.org.
So it may be easy to list what should be done, but it's a lot harder to estimate what will be done. Clearly, cooperation and agreement on goals, without being hampered by political bickering, will go a long way toward dealing with America's economic issues.
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
Recovery
Restless kids in the back seat: "Are we there yet?"
Mom in the front seat: "We're on the way, but don't start to party while we're still in the car."
Economic recovery is on the way, but it's not yet time to celebrate. The signs are not firm, and the base is still a bit shaky, but confidence can be a major force in solidifying the trend.
Here are a few good signs:
* Every state but one (Alaska) showed economic growth for 2013.
* The national debt has stabilized and the deficit has declined. The Congressional Budget Office said the government will post a deficit of $492 billion this year, a sharp drop from an earlier estimate of $680 billion. As a percent of GDP, the deficit this year is estimated to be 2.8 percent of the economy, compared to nearly 10 percent five years ago, the CBO said.
* The unemployment rate is ticking downward, and is now 6.1 percent, compared to 7.5 percent a year ago.
* Interest rates are stable, so government can borrow at very low rates, enabling it to finance its operations and infrastructure projects that provide employment and income to many workers.
* Foreign trade is up, and the balance of payments negativity is improving. The Census Bureau reported an international trade balance of minus $44.4 billion in May, an improvement from the minus $47.0 billion in April as exports increased and imports decreased.
* Finally, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said the federal budget for the coming year would boost the economy over for the next decade, and the economic effect will "feed back into the budget in ways that would reduce deficits."
True, GDP figures showed a drop in output early this year, but that could be a springtime pause before a summer bloom.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve noted that in all twelve districts surveyed in its July report, the regional economies "continued to expand."
A mash of numbers can be stupefying, and reports of encouraging signs can be meaningless to those still out of work. Even so, it's useful to look for hints of improvement in order to build some confidence.
Recession is when my neighbor loses a job. Depression is when I lose mine.
If I grasp enough straws, maybe I can build a boat.
Mom in the front seat: "We're on the way, but don't start to party while we're still in the car."
Economic recovery is on the way, but it's not yet time to celebrate. The signs are not firm, and the base is still a bit shaky, but confidence can be a major force in solidifying the trend.
Here are a few good signs:
* Every state but one (Alaska) showed economic growth for 2013.
* The national debt has stabilized and the deficit has declined. The Congressional Budget Office said the government will post a deficit of $492 billion this year, a sharp drop from an earlier estimate of $680 billion. As a percent of GDP, the deficit this year is estimated to be 2.8 percent of the economy, compared to nearly 10 percent five years ago, the CBO said.
* The unemployment rate is ticking downward, and is now 6.1 percent, compared to 7.5 percent a year ago.
* Interest rates are stable, so government can borrow at very low rates, enabling it to finance its operations and infrastructure projects that provide employment and income to many workers.
* Foreign trade is up, and the balance of payments negativity is improving. The Census Bureau reported an international trade balance of minus $44.4 billion in May, an improvement from the minus $47.0 billion in April as exports increased and imports decreased.
* Finally, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said the federal budget for the coming year would boost the economy over for the next decade, and the economic effect will "feed back into the budget in ways that would reduce deficits."
True, GDP figures showed a drop in output early this year, but that could be a springtime pause before a summer bloom.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve noted that in all twelve districts surveyed in its July report, the regional economies "continued to expand."
A mash of numbers can be stupefying, and reports of encouraging signs can be meaningless to those still out of work. Even so, it's useful to look for hints of improvement in order to build some confidence.
Recession is when my neighbor loses a job. Depression is when I lose mine.
If I grasp enough straws, maybe I can build a boat.
Saturday, July 19, 2014
Technobots
Technology robots are taking over the world. Not the actual machines, which don't really think for themselves (Hal, take note: No offense intended.), but the humanoid types who superficially appear to be human but are so addicted to their do-everything mobile devices that they can't set them aside, pocket them or even (Heaven forbid!) shut them off long enough to share a pleasant conversation with another human.
We're not calling for a return to crank-to-ring wall-mounted phones (Hello, Central? Get me Farmer Jones.) but a modicum of civility is in order.
Restaurateurs are already complaining that diners (?) who check their email, voice mail, video, Twitter and Facebook feeds so often that a lingering dinner becomes a marathon and leads to gripes and walkouts from those waiting for a table. As with so many things, the result is a hit on the bottom line, as owners lose business and profits.
What's the answer? Some establishments are banning mobile devices from their premises. However, that's not really a good answer. Courtesy is.
There are still many folks around who remember the days B.C. (Before Cellphones) when they were blissfully incommunicado for an hour or so and would not dream of disturbing their table mates -- much less those at nearby tables -- with loud yammering of private matters in public places.
Remember telephone booths? They were enclosed for privacy. Then came cellphones, and street corners and supermarket aisles became phone booths for those who were oblivious to the concept of privacy. In their minds, they were holding a private conversation. The fact that a dozen or so others some 30 feet away could hear the entire, often foul-mouthed discourse, did not register.
That was the opening tirade, a carryover from the early notion that one had to speak louder on a long-distance call than during a table-top conversation. Since then, technobots -- people so addicted to technology that they become robots, an extension of the mobile device -- have proliferated, and the idea of courtesy has been overwhelmed.
We're not calling for a return to crank-to-ring wall-mounted phones (Hello, Central? Get me Farmer Jones.) but a modicum of civility is in order.
Restaurateurs are already complaining that diners (?) who check their email, voice mail, video, Twitter and Facebook feeds so often that a lingering dinner becomes a marathon and leads to gripes and walkouts from those waiting for a table. As with so many things, the result is a hit on the bottom line, as owners lose business and profits.
What's the answer? Some establishments are banning mobile devices from their premises. However, that's not really a good answer. Courtesy is.
There are still many folks around who remember the days B.C. (Before Cellphones) when they were blissfully incommunicado for an hour or so and would not dream of disturbing their table mates -- much less those at nearby tables -- with loud yammering of private matters in public places.
Remember telephone booths? They were enclosed for privacy. Then came cellphones, and street corners and supermarket aisles became phone booths for those who were oblivious to the concept of privacy. In their minds, they were holding a private conversation. The fact that a dozen or so others some 30 feet away could hear the entire, often foul-mouthed discourse, did not register.
That was the opening tirade, a carryover from the early notion that one had to speak louder on a long-distance call than during a table-top conversation. Since then, technobots -- people so addicted to technology that they become robots, an extension of the mobile device -- have proliferated, and the idea of courtesy has been overwhelmed.
Brevity and Quality
Flashy phrasing is no substitute for quality writing.
The story hasn't been written that can't be cut.
If you can't tell it in 500 words, you can't tell it.
That was part of the prime directive from an editor long ago. (Rule No. 1 was: Get the name right.) Opposing that concept was and remains the Great American Fallacy: Bigger Equals Better. And in writing, that is taken to mean that longer is better. The reality is that books must be longer to help justify the high sales price of a book.
Meanwhile, in the pocket-computer world of web sites and teaser items, brevity has gone so far that quality is sacrificed. And while it remains true that any story -- especially news stories -- can be told in 500 words or less, Internet-driven devices put a limit of a sentence or so to any item. And that means readers are fed only a headline's worth of information.
That's not enough. Information is the lifeblood of a democracy, and the more of it the public has, the better will be their reaction to what government does in their name. A corollary is that the less information the public has, the easier it is to control their behavior and their voting.
There is, however, both hope for the future and some storm signals warning of approaching ignorance. Daily newspapers are reacting to the prevalence of pocket Internet devices by expanding the print coverage, providing more background and explanatory news. This is no surprise, since they cannot hope to compete with the immediacy of TV journalism. They can, however, supply the full background information necessary in an informed, free society.
The bad news is that so many folks are relying almost exclusively on snippets of information provided on their mobile devices, often set up by any radical with access to a computer. Reliability is important, but you don't often get it from some of these so-called "news" sites.
And while brevity is important, so is quality. Too many otherwise responsible news outlets, in their zeal to capture a part of the mobile market, have substituted flashy phrasing for quality writing.
Remember the Four C's of good writing: Clear, Concise, Complete, Compelling.
The story hasn't been written that can't be cut.
If you can't tell it in 500 words, you can't tell it.
That was part of the prime directive from an editor long ago. (Rule No. 1 was: Get the name right.) Opposing that concept was and remains the Great American Fallacy: Bigger Equals Better. And in writing, that is taken to mean that longer is better. The reality is that books must be longer to help justify the high sales price of a book.
Meanwhile, in the pocket-computer world of web sites and teaser items, brevity has gone so far that quality is sacrificed. And while it remains true that any story -- especially news stories -- can be told in 500 words or less, Internet-driven devices put a limit of a sentence or so to any item. And that means readers are fed only a headline's worth of information.
That's not enough. Information is the lifeblood of a democracy, and the more of it the public has, the better will be their reaction to what government does in their name. A corollary is that the less information the public has, the easier it is to control their behavior and their voting.
There is, however, both hope for the future and some storm signals warning of approaching ignorance. Daily newspapers are reacting to the prevalence of pocket Internet devices by expanding the print coverage, providing more background and explanatory news. This is no surprise, since they cannot hope to compete with the immediacy of TV journalism. They can, however, supply the full background information necessary in an informed, free society.
The bad news is that so many folks are relying almost exclusively on snippets of information provided on their mobile devices, often set up by any radical with access to a computer. Reliability is important, but you don't often get it from some of these so-called "news" sites.
And while brevity is important, so is quality. Too many otherwise responsible news outlets, in their zeal to capture a part of the mobile market, have substituted flashy phrasing for quality writing.
Remember the Four C's of good writing: Clear, Concise, Complete, Compelling.
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