The "modest pace" of U.S. economic growth has given the Federal Reserve Board some hope for a pickup from its recent pace, and that "the unemployment rate will gradually decline." Moreover, "downside risks" for the economic outlook and the labor market have diminished, the Fed said.
Output for the second quarter grew by 1.7 percent, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said earlier in the day, compared to 1.1 percent in the first three months.
Even so, the Fed's Open Market Committee said it will keep a close eye on things, and will continue to add $85 billion monthly to the money stream as it buys mortgage-backed securities and Treasury securities. This to keep the target interest rate for federal funds at zero to a quarter of a percent.
All of which is to say that the nation, and the world, is not yet out of the economic wallows, and the possible danger of more trouble to come is still there.
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Dodging the Economic Bullet
The U.S. economy is not much worse than it has been, and may even be a touch better, as shown in a slight increase in output for the second three months of this year. The first estimate of GDP for the second quarter showed a 1.7 percent increase in output of goods and services, compared to 1.1 percent in the first quarter.
Meanwhile, in other economic trouble spots, the economy in Greece is "rebalancing," according to the International Monetary Fund, albeit through recession, and not structural reform. High unemployment and political instability continue to be problematic.
In Cyprus, a recovery program is "on track," the IMF said, through cutbacks and a "prudent" budget. However, the forecast is for an overall contraction of GDP by some 13 percent through next year, with a "difficult" short-term outlook.
In America, personal income rose 3.4 percent after falling 8.2 percent, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Prices, however, rose 0.3 percent in the second quarter after rising 1.2 percent in the first three months of this year.
Throughout Europe, "extreme market stresses," as the IMF put it, have subsided. Taken as a whole, however, the news is cautionary. There's some cause for optimism, but not enough for a celebration.
Meanwhile, in other economic trouble spots, the economy in Greece is "rebalancing," according to the International Monetary Fund, albeit through recession, and not structural reform. High unemployment and political instability continue to be problematic.
In Cyprus, a recovery program is "on track," the IMF said, through cutbacks and a "prudent" budget. However, the forecast is for an overall contraction of GDP by some 13 percent through next year, with a "difficult" short-term outlook.
In America, personal income rose 3.4 percent after falling 8.2 percent, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Prices, however, rose 0.3 percent in the second quarter after rising 1.2 percent in the first three months of this year.
Throughout Europe, "extreme market stresses," as the IMF put it, have subsided. Taken as a whole, however, the news is cautionary. There's some cause for optimism, but not enough for a celebration.
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Trigger Happy
News Item: A Toronto police officer was suspended after a teenager with a knife was shot and killed by the officer. The youth, 18, was alone on a trolley car which was surrounded by police. There were no passengers on the trolley. A video of the incident registered nine shots.
In New York last year, there was an incident in midtown Manhattan with 16 shots fired by police during an incident involving a suspect with a gun. It was the middle of the day, with hundreds of people on the street by the Empire State Building. Seven of the shots hit the suspect, police said. Some bystanders were wounded.
Other incidents have been reported where many shell casings were found on city streets after police used their weapons. Many of the shots did not hit anyone.
This speaks volumes about police marksmanship.
One of the first lessons taught to young folk learning to handle firearms is this: Do not point your weapon at anything you do not intend to shoot. At least, that's what it used to be.
The lesson is this: Don't pull the trigger unless you're sure you will hit the target.
In New York last year, there was an incident in midtown Manhattan with 16 shots fired by police during an incident involving a suspect with a gun. It was the middle of the day, with hundreds of people on the street by the Empire State Building. Seven of the shots hit the suspect, police said. Some bystanders were wounded.
Other incidents have been reported where many shell casings were found on city streets after police used their weapons. Many of the shots did not hit anyone.
This speaks volumes about police marksmanship.
One of the first lessons taught to young folk learning to handle firearms is this: Do not point your weapon at anything you do not intend to shoot. At least, that's what it used to be.
The lesson is this: Don't pull the trigger unless you're sure you will hit the target.
Monday, July 29, 2013
Gleanings
GO FIGURE -- As fast-food workers around the country went on strike for better wages and working conditions, the CNN anchor reported that "The median pay -- that is to say, the most common pay -- is $18,000." Nope. Median does not mean "most common." In any set of numbers, the median is like the strip of land in the middle of a highway. It's the number in the middle, with just as many numbers above it as below it. Thus, with the series 1,2,3,4,5, the median is 3. In the series 1,2,3,7,9, the median is still three.
The median is not to be confused with the mean, also known as the average, which is calculated by adding for a total, then dividing by the number of entries.
A third term favored by number crunchers is the mode, which is the number that appears most often. The mode may, or may not, be the same as the median or the mean.
PARTIAL PEOPLE -- The Philadelphia TV anchor reported that the building collapse "injured three -- almost four -- people."
GREAT EXPECTORATIONS -- The health care professional listed the diagnosis as "respitory failure." Perhaps the patient was unable to spit. What's wanted is "respiratory," which is related to "respiration," which has to do with breathing. The term is also related to expiration and inspiration, and other words rooted in spirit, which refers to breath in Latin.
The median is not to be confused with the mean, also known as the average, which is calculated by adding for a total, then dividing by the number of entries.
A third term favored by number crunchers is the mode, which is the number that appears most often. The mode may, or may not, be the same as the median or the mean.
PARTIAL PEOPLE -- The Philadelphia TV anchor reported that the building collapse "injured three -- almost four -- people."
GREAT EXPECTORATIONS -- The health care professional listed the diagnosis as "respitory failure." Perhaps the patient was unable to spit. What's wanted is "respiratory," which is related to "respiration," which has to do with breathing. The term is also related to expiration and inspiration, and other words rooted in spirit, which refers to breath in Latin.
Sunday, July 28, 2013
Progress
What's the difference between a milepost and a milestone? Both are used as a measure of progress, usually as a metaphor for human behavior. But their origin was in the days of marking distances on roads. The only difference being that of the materials used: A "post" was often made of wood, and a "milestone" was just that -- made of stone.
And with that, the Editor's Revenge blog (and its companion blogsite, http://jtharding.blogspot.com) marks its growth by noting that we now have reached readers in 50 countries.
We thank all viewers, and hope you will pass the word to friends. As always, the goal is not to persuade, but to prompt thought. If by thinking things over you are confirmed in your beliefs, even when contrary to others, that's great.
Problems and conflicts are brought on when the few try to force their beliefs on the many.
As always, our guiding slogan is, "Belief without thought endangers freedom."
And with that, the Editor's Revenge blog (and its companion blogsite, http://jtharding.blogspot.com) marks its growth by noting that we now have reached readers in 50 countries.
We thank all viewers, and hope you will pass the word to friends. As always, the goal is not to persuade, but to prompt thought. If by thinking things over you are confirmed in your beliefs, even when contrary to others, that's great.
Problems and conflicts are brought on when the few try to force their beliefs on the many.
As always, our guiding slogan is, "Belief without thought endangers freedom."
Saturday, July 27, 2013
Read All About It
The delivery platforms are changing, and those who provide information are changing also. It's either that or step aside.
Many lament the oncoming death of newspapers, since so many people, especially younger folks, get their news and information from electronic gadgets. Doomsayers abounded also in the 1920s, when radio became popular. That will be the end of newspapers, they said. Again in the 1950s, when television surged into American households. That will be the end of newspapers, they said. And in the 1980s, after desktop computers became all the rage for consumers. That will be the end of newspapers, they said.
It didn't happen.
Currently, as pocket-sized electronic tablets saturate the market, many are saying that will be the end of newspapers.
Not likely.
There are still almost 1,400 daily newspapers in America, and thousands more weekly newspapers, all of whom need reporters, writers and editors to gather, prepare and publish information of interest to their readers. And while there has been some downsizing and consolidation in the industry, the total number of dailies in America is down by only a few hundred from fifty years ago. Granted, New York City used to have six major dailies and is now down to three -- The New York Times, The Daily News and The Post -- but that's still more than any other city in America, many of which are down to just one daily rather than two or three. (The Wall Street Journal is considered a national paper, not a city paper. Likewise, USA Today is a national daily, and not identified with one city.)
Another trend to consider is that daily newspapers provide stories that are longer and in more depth than television can hope to offer. Moreover, a newspaper can assign a single reporter to research a single story, and spend months doing it, before writing it.
Television can't afford that. The evening news has about 20 minutes to cover everything, and much of that is the equivalent of a three-paragraph rewrite of something that had already appeared in the morning paper. And when a major story breaks, television stations must send out an entire crew -- reporters, producers, camera operators, sound technicians -- with their specialized equipment and vehicle.
This is not to knock television news. Moving images are very powerful things, and that part of the journalism industry provides that type of coverage very well. But it will not replace the permanence of print.
So what, you say. I still get everything I want to know from my mobile device. That's no doubt true, that you get what you want to know. But do you get what you need to know? That's a different issue.
In any case, consider that some of these apps and web sites are delivery platforms, not sources, as the Newspaper Association of America put it.
Moreover, are they reliable?
There are still many folks who do not have a computer, regardless of size -- desktop, laptop, or pocket size. Moreover, they don't want one, and wouldn't know how to use one if they did have one. Or they can't afford one.
Again, this is not to knock computers or other electronic information delivery systems. This blog, frankly, wouldn't be possible without them. But the newspaper industry remains a powerful force in American business, with total revenue of $38.6 billion in 2012, according to the Newspaper Association of America.
And their delivery systems are changing, as well. A survey conducted by the NAA said 69 percent of U.S. adults read newspaper media content in print or online in a typical week, or access it on mobile devices in a typical month. In addition, 59 percent of those ages 18 to 24 do the same
There are challenges, especially during tough economic times. But the information delivery industry -- read newspapers, magazines, radio, television, Internet and mobile devices -- all of which prepare information, is changing, and many in the industry are combining several of these delivery platforms to ensure survival and profitability.
At the same time, there are some news providers that will remain as they are for a long time. After all, you can't read about what your local town council or school board is doing with your tax dollars by reading the Wall Street Journal or USA today. For that, you need a local paper, either daily or weekly. And the TV station in the nearest major city is not likely to send a camera crew to your village unless there's some especially lurid story to pursue. Even there, the cops are more likely to talk to the local reporter they know than to the brash big-city guys they don't know.
Or, as happened once in New Jersey, when a Manhattan reporter complained that she was "not used to being treated this way in New York," the local cop pointed to the highway.
Many lament the oncoming death of newspapers, since so many people, especially younger folks, get their news and information from electronic gadgets. Doomsayers abounded also in the 1920s, when radio became popular. That will be the end of newspapers, they said. Again in the 1950s, when television surged into American households. That will be the end of newspapers, they said. And in the 1980s, after desktop computers became all the rage for consumers. That will be the end of newspapers, they said.
It didn't happen.
Currently, as pocket-sized electronic tablets saturate the market, many are saying that will be the end of newspapers.
Not likely.
There are still almost 1,400 daily newspapers in America, and thousands more weekly newspapers, all of whom need reporters, writers and editors to gather, prepare and publish information of interest to their readers. And while there has been some downsizing and consolidation in the industry, the total number of dailies in America is down by only a few hundred from fifty years ago. Granted, New York City used to have six major dailies and is now down to three -- The New York Times, The Daily News and The Post -- but that's still more than any other city in America, many of which are down to just one daily rather than two or three. (The Wall Street Journal is considered a national paper, not a city paper. Likewise, USA Today is a national daily, and not identified with one city.)
Another trend to consider is that daily newspapers provide stories that are longer and in more depth than television can hope to offer. Moreover, a newspaper can assign a single reporter to research a single story, and spend months doing it, before writing it.
Television can't afford that. The evening news has about 20 minutes to cover everything, and much of that is the equivalent of a three-paragraph rewrite of something that had already appeared in the morning paper. And when a major story breaks, television stations must send out an entire crew -- reporters, producers, camera operators, sound technicians -- with their specialized equipment and vehicle.
This is not to knock television news. Moving images are very powerful things, and that part of the journalism industry provides that type of coverage very well. But it will not replace the permanence of print.
So what, you say. I still get everything I want to know from my mobile device. That's no doubt true, that you get what you want to know. But do you get what you need to know? That's a different issue.
In any case, consider that some of these apps and web sites are delivery platforms, not sources, as the Newspaper Association of America put it.
Moreover, are they reliable?
There are still many folks who do not have a computer, regardless of size -- desktop, laptop, or pocket size. Moreover, they don't want one, and wouldn't know how to use one if they did have one. Or they can't afford one.
Again, this is not to knock computers or other electronic information delivery systems. This blog, frankly, wouldn't be possible without them. But the newspaper industry remains a powerful force in American business, with total revenue of $38.6 billion in 2012, according to the Newspaper Association of America.
And their delivery systems are changing, as well. A survey conducted by the NAA said 69 percent of U.S. adults read newspaper media content in print or online in a typical week, or access it on mobile devices in a typical month. In addition, 59 percent of those ages 18 to 24 do the same
There are challenges, especially during tough economic times. But the information delivery industry -- read newspapers, magazines, radio, television, Internet and mobile devices -- all of which prepare information, is changing, and many in the industry are combining several of these delivery platforms to ensure survival and profitability.
At the same time, there are some news providers that will remain as they are for a long time. After all, you can't read about what your local town council or school board is doing with your tax dollars by reading the Wall Street Journal or USA today. For that, you need a local paper, either daily or weekly. And the TV station in the nearest major city is not likely to send a camera crew to your village unless there's some especially lurid story to pursue. Even there, the cops are more likely to talk to the local reporter they know than to the brash big-city guys they don't know.
Or, as happened once in New Jersey, when a Manhattan reporter complained that she was "not used to being treated this way in New York," the local cop pointed to the highway.
Friday, July 26, 2013
The Non-Goldilocks Economy
Tepid: Not too hot, not too cold, but not "just right" either.
In the short term, politics may dominate economics. But over time, economics dominates politics.
Experts are suggesting "modest" growth for the American economy through next year, even as Democrats struggle to boost activity and Republicans move to block. In the latest analysis from an independent source, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the U.S. recovery "has remained tepid, with GDP growing at a modest 2.2 percent for 2012. And despite "powerful headwinds, the nature of the recovery appears to be changing." Whatever that means.
So is the U.S. economy recovering or not?
There will be growth for the year, at 1.7 percent, the IMF predicted, but that's less that last year's 2.2 percent. And even an accelerated growth to 2.7 percent next year is not like going gang-busters.
Moreover, while the IMF executive board said it welcomes "improvement in the underlying conditions of the U.S. economy, which bodes well for a gradual acceleration," the balance of risks "remains tilted to the downside."
Which is a diplomatic way for the Washington-based institution to say, "Watch your butt."
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in Spain declined during the second three months of the year to 26.3 percent, compared to a record 27.2 percent in the first quarter. In Germany, the engineering giant Siemens cut its profit prediction for its next fiscal year, which begins in September. The company has already taken a 7 percent hit in sales in this year's first quarter.
The unemployment rate in America is still above 7 percent, and people over 50 who have been out of work are struggling even longer to find a new job. The GOP continues to hammer at what they see as President Obama's failure to kickstart the economy, citing a 7.6 percent jobless rates, 11.8 million people out of work, another 8.2 million forced to work part-time, and the statistic that the average duration of unemployment has almost doubled from 19.8 weeks to 35.6 weeks.
Their proposed solution measures: Repeal the health care act known as Obamacare (you know, the health care plan modeled on the one known as Romneycare in Massachusetts), give parents more influence over schooling, devise a flatter tax code, cut government spending and balance the federal budget, foster innovation by keeping the internet free of government regulation, tighten border security and rein in government red tape. Source here is the House Republican Plan for Economic Growth, at http://www.gop.gov.jobs/.
For their part, Democrats point out that "Our economic troubles did not come about overnight and we will not be able to fix them overnight." To jumpstart the American economy, Dems say they will be "focusing on fiscal responsibility and making targeted investments in the areas that will grow our economy like clean energy, education, health care and infrastructure." Source: http://www.dems.gov/issues/economy.
So both sides seem to have a plan, and both claim theirs is the best and only workable plan. Meanwhile, as they fiddle, Rome, Athens and Paris burn. That's Rome, Georgia; as well as Athens, Texas; and Paris, Tennessee.
In the short term, politics may dominate economics. But over time, economics dominates politics.
Experts are suggesting "modest" growth for the American economy through next year, even as Democrats struggle to boost activity and Republicans move to block. In the latest analysis from an independent source, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the U.S. recovery "has remained tepid, with GDP growing at a modest 2.2 percent for 2012. And despite "powerful headwinds, the nature of the recovery appears to be changing." Whatever that means.
So is the U.S. economy recovering or not?
There will be growth for the year, at 1.7 percent, the IMF predicted, but that's less that last year's 2.2 percent. And even an accelerated growth to 2.7 percent next year is not like going gang-busters.
Moreover, while the IMF executive board said it welcomes "improvement in the underlying conditions of the U.S. economy, which bodes well for a gradual acceleration," the balance of risks "remains tilted to the downside."
Which is a diplomatic way for the Washington-based institution to say, "Watch your butt."
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in Spain declined during the second three months of the year to 26.3 percent, compared to a record 27.2 percent in the first quarter. In Germany, the engineering giant Siemens cut its profit prediction for its next fiscal year, which begins in September. The company has already taken a 7 percent hit in sales in this year's first quarter.
The unemployment rate in America is still above 7 percent, and people over 50 who have been out of work are struggling even longer to find a new job. The GOP continues to hammer at what they see as President Obama's failure to kickstart the economy, citing a 7.6 percent jobless rates, 11.8 million people out of work, another 8.2 million forced to work part-time, and the statistic that the average duration of unemployment has almost doubled from 19.8 weeks to 35.6 weeks.
Their proposed solution measures: Repeal the health care act known as Obamacare (you know, the health care plan modeled on the one known as Romneycare in Massachusetts), give parents more influence over schooling, devise a flatter tax code, cut government spending and balance the federal budget, foster innovation by keeping the internet free of government regulation, tighten border security and rein in government red tape. Source here is the House Republican Plan for Economic Growth, at http://www.gop.gov.jobs/.
For their part, Democrats point out that "Our economic troubles did not come about overnight and we will not be able to fix them overnight." To jumpstart the American economy, Dems say they will be "focusing on fiscal responsibility and making targeted investments in the areas that will grow our economy like clean energy, education, health care and infrastructure." Source: http://www.dems.gov/issues/economy.
So both sides seem to have a plan, and both claim theirs is the best and only workable plan. Meanwhile, as they fiddle, Rome, Athens and Paris burn. That's Rome, Georgia; as well as Athens, Texas; and Paris, Tennessee.
Thursday, July 25, 2013
Recovery Update
Britain may have escaped another downturn, but "recovery remains elusive" throughout Europe, according to the International Monetary Fund. Gross Domestic Product showed an increase of 0.6 percent for the second quarter, according to London officials, and growth was more broadly based, they said, even as they warned of more economic headwinds.
For its part, the IMF said "extreme market stresses have subsided," but an elusive recovery means euro area GDP "is expected to contract by 0.6 percent for a second consecutive year in 2013, before expanding modestly by 0.9 percent in 2014."
Moreover, with unemployment, especially among the youth, at record levels, the IMF pointed out, "there is a risk of long-term damage to potential growth and to political support for reforms."
Add to that picture a report that the Asian economy, which had been booming, is beginning to sputter.
Meanwhile, hopes for the American economy may brighten -- or not -- tomorrow with the release of the first estimate of second quarter GDP. It grew by 1.8 percent in the first three months of this year, after a minimal growth of 0.4 percent in 4Q12.
And on Wednesday, President Obama began his barnstorming tour of the U.S. to drum up support for his economic plan even as he took potshots at the Republican opposition for attempting to block his every move.
All in all, it looks like we're living in interesting times.
For its part, the IMF said "extreme market stresses have subsided," but an elusive recovery means euro area GDP "is expected to contract by 0.6 percent for a second consecutive year in 2013, before expanding modestly by 0.9 percent in 2014."
Moreover, with unemployment, especially among the youth, at record levels, the IMF pointed out, "there is a risk of long-term damage to potential growth and to political support for reforms."
Add to that picture a report that the Asian economy, which had been booming, is beginning to sputter.
Meanwhile, hopes for the American economy may brighten -- or not -- tomorrow with the release of the first estimate of second quarter GDP. It grew by 1.8 percent in the first three months of this year, after a minimal growth of 0.4 percent in 4Q12.
And on Wednesday, President Obama began his barnstorming tour of the U.S. to drum up support for his economic plan even as he took potshots at the Republican opposition for attempting to block his every move.
All in all, it looks like we're living in interesting times.
Wednesday, July 24, 2013
Obama-rama
President Barack Obama has taken his show on the road to gather a wider audience for his second-term show. And the key theme is a plan to build economic recovery "from the middle out," rather than the trickle-down economics of several decades ago. Then, the hope was to cut extra breaks for those at the top, and the benefits would eventually trickle down to the middle and lower classes of society.
Meanwhile, Republicans are digging in their heels to even more strongly oppose the President's plans.
Who's right? The answer to that may well come with the next election, when voters decide how long they want to wait for jobs and income as well as medical and educational benefits.
One side says the private sector knows best and can do the job without government help, while the other side maintains that private enterprise, while it may be able, isn't always willing. Therefore, some government help and encouragement is called for.
In the long run, it is indeed possible that all things will work out for the best in this best of all possible worlds, as Voltaire might have put it. But in the long run, we are all dead, said Mr. Keynes.
Meanwhile, Republicans are digging in their heels to even more strongly oppose the President's plans.
Who's right? The answer to that may well come with the next election, when voters decide how long they want to wait for jobs and income as well as medical and educational benefits.
One side says the private sector knows best and can do the job without government help, while the other side maintains that private enterprise, while it may be able, isn't always willing. Therefore, some government help and encouragement is called for.
In the long run, it is indeed possible that all things will work out for the best in this best of all possible worlds, as Voltaire might have put it. But in the long run, we are all dead, said Mr. Keynes.
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
Reality Check
The Republican Party has been retrenching and refocusing its strategies, emphasizing its support among the white conservative middle class voters, and maintaining that Barack Obama's victories in 2008 and 2012 were the result of low turnout from its preferred base, and an unusually high turnout from minorities.
Therefore, the thinking goes, it's time to focus on the "missing white voters" and get them to show up at the polls, while the GOP strategy continues to slash away at social benefits which, they imply, go primarily to minorities and that members of the white working class don't need them.
The past two presidential elections were an anomaly, the thinking continues, and that pattern won't continue in future elections.
Reality check: Of jobless workers who collect unemployment benefits -- 60 percent are white. Many families on Medicaid are white, likewise many seniors on Medicare. Hispanics -- whether they consider themselves white, non-white or "other" are the fastest growing population segment in the country. Yet the GOP wants to pin its hopes on "downscale, rural, Northern whites," as political analyst Sean Trende put it, adding that Republican-sponsored immigration reforms "probably help" the party's "outreach efforts to Hispanics."
Given the tone of the diatribes against newcomers generally and of Hispanic newcomers specifically, that hope has a hollow ring to it.
Moreover, cutbacks in social benefits hurt everyone, regardless of ethnicity or status.
By the way, the latest Nielsen TV ratings put Univision, the Spanish-language network, in first place, with more viewers than ABC, NBC, CBS or Fox.
Therefore, the thinking goes, it's time to focus on the "missing white voters" and get them to show up at the polls, while the GOP strategy continues to slash away at social benefits which, they imply, go primarily to minorities and that members of the white working class don't need them.
The past two presidential elections were an anomaly, the thinking continues, and that pattern won't continue in future elections.
Reality check: Of jobless workers who collect unemployment benefits -- 60 percent are white. Many families on Medicaid are white, likewise many seniors on Medicare. Hispanics -- whether they consider themselves white, non-white or "other" are the fastest growing population segment in the country. Yet the GOP wants to pin its hopes on "downscale, rural, Northern whites," as political analyst Sean Trende put it, adding that Republican-sponsored immigration reforms "probably help" the party's "outreach efforts to Hispanics."
Given the tone of the diatribes against newcomers generally and of Hispanic newcomers specifically, that hope has a hollow ring to it.
Moreover, cutbacks in social benefits hurt everyone, regardless of ethnicity or status.
By the way, the latest Nielsen TV ratings put Univision, the Spanish-language network, in first place, with more viewers than ABC, NBC, CBS or Fox.
Monday, July 22, 2013
Dreamland
Note: With the continuing conversation in America about immigration, legal and otherwise, the following piece is timely. It was published in the Summer 2013 edition of the Phi Kappa Phi Forum, the quarterly magazine sent to members of the National Honor Society of Phi Kappa Phi.
Helping Newcomers Work
Their Way In
By John T. Harding
The American welcome mat remains in place for
newcomers who can create jobs and fill specialized positions. Worldwide
competition for business investors and skilled professionals prompted the U.S.
Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) last November to launch Entrepreneur
Pathways, an online resource for these strivers to secure visas. The web portal
was built by Entrepreneurs in Residence, a
think tank formed in October 2011 of startup experts from the private sector
and USCIS authorities. Both initiatives reinforce ongoing efforts to
bolster the U.S. economy through the labor force by smoothing the entry process
for highly qualified foreigners.
The payoff is potentially great for these
permanent workers and for the market sector. “Approximately 140,000 immigrant visas are available each fiscal year
for aliens (and their spouses and children) who seek to immigrate based on
their job skills,” the USCIS website explains. One of the five visa categories is
for “persons of extraordinary ability in the sciences, arts, education,
business, or athletics; outstanding professors or researchers; and
multinational executives and managers.” Another is for those “who invest $1
million or $500,000 (if the investment is made in a targeted employment area)
in a new commercial enterprise that employs at least 10 full-time U.S. workers.”
Evidence
demonstrates that ventures like these in the American Dream improve the national bottom line. For instance,
immigrants founded 25 percent of the highest-growth companies in the U.S., such
as Google, eBay, and Intel, and cumulatively these outfits employ approximately
220,000 people stateside, write A New Front Door for Immigrant Entrepreneurs,” posted on The U.S. Economy Still Needs Highly Skilled Foreign Workers,” a
Indeed, immigrants
are 30 percent more likely to open a U.S. business than non-immigrants. And newcomers
total 33 percent of engineers, 27 percent of mathematicians, statisticians and
computer scientists, and 24 percent of physical scientists, despite comprising
only 16 percent of overall residents with a bachelor’s degree or more. These
findings come from Jason Furman and Danielle Gray’s compilation, “Ten Ways Immigrants Help Build and Strengthen Our
Economy,” posted on the White House blog last July.
Despite widespread concern that immigrants — legal and otherwise — take jobs away
from
American citizens, the reality is more complicated. As with other fields,
supply and demand factor into things. And many Americans refuse menial jobs
while newcomers are eager for work of any kind. Also, “Of the 1.1 million green cards issued in a typical
year, the United States awards 85 percent to family and humanitarian immigrants
and only 15 percent to employment-based, highly skilled immigrants. Of these 15
percent, half go to the workers’ spouses and children,” said Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas executive Pia M. Orrenius in “Immigration Reform and U.S.
Economic Performance,” published by the nonpartisan Council on Foreign
Relations in March 2011. It’s worth mentioning that for those holding a
bachelor’s degree or higher, the unemployment rate was 4.5 percent for citizens
and 5.7 percent for immigrants, according to “Amnesty and the U.S. Labor Market,” a paper issued last December by the
nonpartisan Center for Immigration Studies, which cited U.S. Census Bureau data
for the third quarter 2012.
Also, “research indicates that illegal
immigrant workers are overwhelmingly those with relatively little education,” said
Steven A. Camarota, director of research at this center. “While it would be a
mistake to think that every job taken by an illegal immigrant is a job lost by
a native,” Camarota wrote in the paper, his
analysis “make[s] clear that Americans with relatively little education have
been hit hard” by the recession.
What’s more, the federal program to issue
green cards to business investors or skilled workers stipulates that there are
“insufficient available, qualified, and willing U.S. workers to fill the
position being offered at the prevailing wage,” and that “hiring a foreign
worker will not adversely affect the wages and working conditions of similarly
employed U.S. workers,” details the USCIS website.
So for those with money and skills, Lady
Liberty’s lamp guiding the way to opportunity still burns brightly through the
fuel of government assistance. In northern Vermont, for example, reported Katharine
Q. Seelye for The New York Times last
December, the Jay Peak ski resort is adding a biomedical research firm and window
manufacturing plant, plus a hotel and conference center and sundry other area facilities
ranging from an indoor water park to a hockey arena to condominiums. Financing
in part comes from the federal program that offers permanent residency to
newcomers who invest in a significant project like this one. Total cost of the
expansion: $865 million. Direct and indirect jobs to be created: 10,000. Foreign
investors: 550 from 60 countries so far.
The article also included this fact: the federal
government issued 802 of these visas in 2006 and 7,818 in 2012.
Sunday, July 21, 2013
Oddments
The Scotsman newspaper in Edinburgh ran a piece on a campaign to restore an apostrophe to the sign announcing Princes Street in the city's prime shopping area. There seems to be some disagreement over whether the sign refers to one or several princes, and this would determine where the apostrophe -- which reportedly had been there until the 1830s -- should go.
However, copy editor Pug Mahoney notes that grammar, punctuation and spelling are not the same thing. The Scotsman piece uses all three terms interchangeably.
Here's a link: http://www.scotsman.com/edinburgh-evening-news/latest-news/bid-to-change-princes-street-name-with-apostrophe-1-2963260
Small courtesies yield long memories.
Sarcasm for one is a terrorist threat for another.
Some TV interviewers' questions are more brief essays than attempts to elicit an answer. Wolf Blitzer of CNN comes to mind.
A supermarket aisle -- the seasonal section -- had a large display of toilet paper. There's a season for it? Who knew?
However, copy editor Pug Mahoney notes that grammar, punctuation and spelling are not the same thing. The Scotsman piece uses all three terms interchangeably.
Here's a link: http://www.scotsman.com/edinburgh-evening-news/latest-news/bid-to-change-princes-street-name-with-apostrophe-1-2963260
Small courtesies yield long memories.
Sarcasm for one is a terrorist threat for another.
Some TV interviewers' questions are more brief essays than attempts to elicit an answer. Wolf Blitzer of CNN comes to mind.
A supermarket aisle -- the seasonal section -- had a large display of toilet paper. There's a season for it? Who knew?
Activist Journalism or Journalistic Activism
"What's in a name?" -- Shakespeare
I don't read that (liberal/conservative) rag. (Choose one.)
Which (liberal/conservative) rag do you read?
Reporters are neither advocates nor adversaries. We ask the tough questions because they need to be asked.
We note the passing of Helen Thomas, veteran White House correspondent who was praised in media reports for the bluntness of her questions. 'Twas not always thus. At one time, she was widely criticized for the bluntness of her questions, especially to Presidents. Some -- often the subjects of her questions -- felt a quantity of deference should be in her tone. Courtesy, of course, but deference? Not necessarily.
There are many who feel that journalists, if not advocates for their positions, are therefore adversaries, to be shunned, opposed, blocked, ignored or fought at every turn. If you are not with me, you are against me, they say.
There's been a lot of talk recently about "journalistic activism," often in reference to publishing material that government would prefer to keep secret.
But what makes a journalist an activist, to be shunned and opposed? What determines whether a journalist is one or the other, or neither, or both?
Exposing fraud and corruption is a form of activism, as is revealing governmental practices that are contrary to the ideals expressed in the Constitution. This also applies to other nations.
A journalist can be a neutral reporter, an activist, an adversary, an advocate, an opponent, or by turns any of the above. That's what Freedom of the Press is about. We have the right to express not only non-partisan news, but also partisan advocacy views and information that exposes misfeasance, malfeasance and nonfeasance.
Readers, in turn, have the right -- the obligation -- to consider the information and decide for themselves what's to be done.
I don't read that (liberal/conservative) rag. (Choose one.)
Which (liberal/conservative) rag do you read?
Reporters are neither advocates nor adversaries. We ask the tough questions because they need to be asked.
We note the passing of Helen Thomas, veteran White House correspondent who was praised in media reports for the bluntness of her questions. 'Twas not always thus. At one time, she was widely criticized for the bluntness of her questions, especially to Presidents. Some -- often the subjects of her questions -- felt a quantity of deference should be in her tone. Courtesy, of course, but deference? Not necessarily.
There are many who feel that journalists, if not advocates for their positions, are therefore adversaries, to be shunned, opposed, blocked, ignored or fought at every turn. If you are not with me, you are against me, they say.
There's been a lot of talk recently about "journalistic activism," often in reference to publishing material that government would prefer to keep secret.
But what makes a journalist an activist, to be shunned and opposed? What determines whether a journalist is one or the other, or neither, or both?
Exposing fraud and corruption is a form of activism, as is revealing governmental practices that are contrary to the ideals expressed in the Constitution. This also applies to other nations.
A journalist can be a neutral reporter, an activist, an adversary, an advocate, an opponent, or by turns any of the above. That's what Freedom of the Press is about. We have the right to express not only non-partisan news, but also partisan advocacy views and information that exposes misfeasance, malfeasance and nonfeasance.
Readers, in turn, have the right -- the obligation -- to consider the information and decide for themselves what's to be done.
Saturday, July 20, 2013
Shielding Sources
News item: A federal appeals court has ordered New York Times reporter James Risen to testify in a case involving leaks of CIA information. Risen has refused to reveal his sources, citing First Amendment protection.
But the court ruled that protection does not apply, since Risen's "direct, first-hand account of the criminal conduct" can't be obtained by alternative methods used by prosecutors, according to a news report in the Times.
The argument is that legal beagles should use all other means available to get information, and if they still can't, then reporters can be forced to testify. Journalists have long used sources who need to be anonymous for various reasons, and the law in most states has upheld that tradition.
Journalists protect their sources, and many have gone to jail rather than reveal them.
But if one reporter can research and find sensitive information, so can prosecutors. Police, too, have "confidential informants."
But the court ruled that protection does not apply, since Risen's "direct, first-hand account of the criminal conduct" can't be obtained by alternative methods used by prosecutors, according to a news report in the Times.
The argument is that legal beagles should use all other means available to get information, and if they still can't, then reporters can be forced to testify. Journalists have long used sources who need to be anonymous for various reasons, and the law in most states has upheld that tradition.
Journalists protect their sources, and many have gone to jail rather than reveal them.
But if one reporter can research and find sensitive information, so can prosecutors. Police, too, have "confidential informants."
Mission Accomplished?
Iraq is the fifth largest exporter of oil in the world, after Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Canada and Iran. And more than half of Iraq's oil production -- 53 percent in 2011, according to the International Monetary Fund -- goes to Asia, more than double the share in 2005, when 24 percent went to Asia.
Is it coincidence that when shipments to Asia began to increase that the U.S. went to war with Iraq, sending troops in search of nonexistent "weapons of mass destruction" (whatever they are)? Moreover, most of the oil producing fields in Iraq are owned by international oil companies, the IMF said in a detailed country report released Friday, July 19. The IMF study said some two million barrels per day go to Asia, about one million barrels go to the Americas, and less than 500,000 barrels of oil per day go to Europe from Iraqi oil fields.
Ten years after the U.S. military and its allies invaded Iraq, that nation is without a stable government, more than half its oil exports go to Asia, and nearly 4,500 American military personnel have died there. Several hundred more from other coalition military units have been killed. In addition, more than 100,000 civilian deaths have been recorded in Iraq, according to several groups that track the body count.
Was it worth it?
Is it coincidence that when shipments to Asia began to increase that the U.S. went to war with Iraq, sending troops in search of nonexistent "weapons of mass destruction" (whatever they are)? Moreover, most of the oil producing fields in Iraq are owned by international oil companies, the IMF said in a detailed country report released Friday, July 19. The IMF study said some two million barrels per day go to Asia, about one million barrels go to the Americas, and less than 500,000 barrels of oil per day go to Europe from Iraqi oil fields.
Ten years after the U.S. military and its allies invaded Iraq, that nation is without a stable government, more than half its oil exports go to Asia, and nearly 4,500 American military personnel have died there. Several hundred more from other coalition military units have been killed. In addition, more than 100,000 civilian deaths have been recorded in Iraq, according to several groups that track the body count.
Was it worth it?
Friday, July 19, 2013
Fix and Fixation
The government is cracking down on smuggling to eliminate the supply of narcotics to users and abusers in America, and is also tightening the rules on prescription painkillers. One result of the rule-tightening is that it makes pills more expensive and harder to get, as doctors become more careful about prescribing narcotic painkillers. Cynics point out that it's also easier for enforcers to fill their quota of drug busts by tracking doctors than it is by chasing street dealers.
So, because users -- legitimate and otherwise -- have a harder time getting their supplies, they turn to street dealers. As the New York Times reported, heroin is often cheaper and easier to get than prescription pain pills.
Economics 101, the Law of Supply and Demand, says that if the supply is lower but demand remains, the price will rise, and new suppliers will enter the market to take advantage of continued demand and higher prices. That law applies to everything, including narcotics, legal and otherwise.
In cracking down on smugglers, then, the government is restricting the supply, thereby causing an increase in cost to the user.
Wouldn't it be better to work on reducing demand, through education and public health efforts?
Speaking of misplaced efforts, the National Rifle Association has long been fond of saying, "Guns don't kill people; people kill people." True enough, but let's rephrase it to say this: "People use guns to kill people."
So which is the source of the murder problem -- guns or people? And which should be the focus of resolving the problem?
Laws restricting gun ownership are valuable, but equally valuable are efforts to educate people in the appropriate use of firearms. The NRA started as an educational group, to encourage the use of rifles in target practice. And it was partly sponsored by the U.S. military, so that young folks would have at least a passing familiarity with guns when they entered military service.
However, it seems that the military dropped its sponsorship years ago, and the NRA became a lobbying group primarily financed by firearms manufacturers. It's hard to believe that membership dues are sufficient to finance all the lobbying efforts and to hire experts in writing legislation favorable to the industry, which are then taken to policy makers, saving them the trouble of researching and writing legislation themselves.
So, because users -- legitimate and otherwise -- have a harder time getting their supplies, they turn to street dealers. As the New York Times reported, heroin is often cheaper and easier to get than prescription pain pills.
Economics 101, the Law of Supply and Demand, says that if the supply is lower but demand remains, the price will rise, and new suppliers will enter the market to take advantage of continued demand and higher prices. That law applies to everything, including narcotics, legal and otherwise.
In cracking down on smugglers, then, the government is restricting the supply, thereby causing an increase in cost to the user.
Wouldn't it be better to work on reducing demand, through education and public health efforts?
Speaking of misplaced efforts, the National Rifle Association has long been fond of saying, "Guns don't kill people; people kill people." True enough, but let's rephrase it to say this: "People use guns to kill people."
So which is the source of the murder problem -- guns or people? And which should be the focus of resolving the problem?
Laws restricting gun ownership are valuable, but equally valuable are efforts to educate people in the appropriate use of firearms. The NRA started as an educational group, to encourage the use of rifles in target practice. And it was partly sponsored by the U.S. military, so that young folks would have at least a passing familiarity with guns when they entered military service.
However, it seems that the military dropped its sponsorship years ago, and the NRA became a lobbying group primarily financed by firearms manufacturers. It's hard to believe that membership dues are sufficient to finance all the lobbying efforts and to hire experts in writing legislation favorable to the industry, which are then taken to policy makers, saving them the trouble of researching and writing legislation themselves.
Stimulus and Profits
News item: The Commerce Department is warning that President Barack Obama "will not sign individual appropriations bills that simply attempt to enact the House Republican budget into law." The department said the House plan will cut $1 billion from the President's request for Commerce Department funding, which would require a halt to investments in areas "designed to help grow the economy, create jobs and strengthen the middle class." Other proposed cuts in the House version would hurt the overall economy. "We cannot cut our way to prosperity," a department statement said.
Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker is touring the Western states to drum up more cooperation between business and government to boost economic activity.
Other news items: Major banks report big profits, but resist tighter regulation.
Senators Elizabeth Warren and John McCain move to reinstate Glass-Steagall Act bans on banks acting as both commercial and investment institutions. They were split in 1933 after helping to bring on the Great Depression. The ban was overturned in 1999. Within ten years, America sank into the Great Recession.
The European Central Bank says it will keep interest rates down to help economic recovery. GDP in its region declined by 0.3 percent in the first quarter, the ECB said. Economic activity in the euro area "should recover in the course of the year, albeit at a subdued pace."
The International Monetary Fund says an emerging market slowdown is growing more slowly than expected, and is adding to global economic pains. Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Christine Legarde urges Eastern European countries to work together more closely. (An Eastern European Union, perhaps?)
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke again criticizes "strong headwinds" slowing economic recovery because of federal fiscal policy. He tells Congress that Fed monetary policy will continue until recovery is well under way.
Numbers: Initial claims for unemployment benefits were down slightly for the week ending July 13. The nationwide unemployment rate is 7.6 percent, the consumer price index is up 0.5 percent, and average hourly earnings are up a dime. All numbers from the U.S. Department of Labor.
Comment: It's time for politicians to get off their oppositional butts, get together and do something. Government is about getting something done. Politics is about making the other guy lose. And sometimes the consequence is that the entire country loses, as one side becomes so fixated on stopping the other guy that nothing gets done.
Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker is touring the Western states to drum up more cooperation between business and government to boost economic activity.
Other news items: Major banks report big profits, but resist tighter regulation.
Senators Elizabeth Warren and John McCain move to reinstate Glass-Steagall Act bans on banks acting as both commercial and investment institutions. They were split in 1933 after helping to bring on the Great Depression. The ban was overturned in 1999. Within ten years, America sank into the Great Recession.
The European Central Bank says it will keep interest rates down to help economic recovery. GDP in its region declined by 0.3 percent in the first quarter, the ECB said. Economic activity in the euro area "should recover in the course of the year, albeit at a subdued pace."
The International Monetary Fund says an emerging market slowdown is growing more slowly than expected, and is adding to global economic pains. Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Christine Legarde urges Eastern European countries to work together more closely. (An Eastern European Union, perhaps?)
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke again criticizes "strong headwinds" slowing economic recovery because of federal fiscal policy. He tells Congress that Fed monetary policy will continue until recovery is well under way.
Numbers: Initial claims for unemployment benefits were down slightly for the week ending July 13. The nationwide unemployment rate is 7.6 percent, the consumer price index is up 0.5 percent, and average hourly earnings are up a dime. All numbers from the U.S. Department of Labor.
Comment: It's time for politicians to get off their oppositional butts, get together and do something. Government is about getting something done. Politics is about making the other guy lose. And sometimes the consequence is that the entire country loses, as one side becomes so fixated on stopping the other guy that nothing gets done.
Thursday, July 18, 2013
Railroads Haul the Future
Note: The following was published in the Fall, 2012, edition of Phi Kappa Phi Forum, the quarterly journal sent to members of the National Honor Society of Phi Kappa Phi.
A Pivotal Junction for Railroads
By John T. Harding
The term “making the grade” perhaps originated from a freight train’s efforts to reach the crest of a slope. And, like The Little Engine That Could, the American railroad industry is struggling to get back on track to financial strength after decades of stifling regulation, competition from truckers, and the recent recession.
Class I railroads, those carrying freight long distances between major metropolitan areas,
“account for approximately 68 percent of U.S. freight rail mileage, 89 percent of employees, and 93 percent of revenue,” according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR).1More than 560 freight railroads navigate a 140,000-mile system nationwide with some 175,000 employees.2 They annually move 1.5 million carloads of food products, 2 million carloads of plastics, fertilizers and other chemicals, and 7.3 million carloads of coal, among other items.3
Stifling regulation
“By the late 1970s, counterproductive and unbalanced regulation had brought America’s rail industry to the brink of ruin,” AAR explains.4 “Rail bankruptcies were common, and tracks and equipment were falling apart because railroads could not afford the cost of upkeep.”
Things began to improve in the early 1980s when looser regulation enabled marketplace demand to determine routes, services, and prices. As a result, average U.S. freight rates, adjusted for inflation, dropped 51 percent from 1981 to 2010 (based on revenue per ton-mile). “That means the average rail customer today can ship twice as much freight for about the same price it paid nearly 30 years ago.”5 Meanwhile, the industry consolidated from 14 Class I railroads to seven, a process that bolsters the bottom line in any number of ways.
Competition from truckers
For years, freight railroads in America faced falling revenues and declining profits partly because of rising fuel costs and competition from the trucking industry. But through innovations and adaptations, rail carriers have recovered and become the most cost-efficient way to ship goods.
Intermodal transportation, for instance, transfers sealed boxes from ships to trains for long-distance hauling and then to trucks for local delivery. Intermodal and container traffic grew 6.4 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively, last spring from the year before, even as total freight carloads slid 3.48 percent.6 “[B]etter rail service and new intermodal service offerings have resulted in conversions from long-haul trucking to intermodal service that uses railroads for a large portion of the total move,” remarks Standard & Poor’s Rating Services, adding that “trucking capacity is shrinking because of stricter safety requirements … so shippers may turn to railroads to carry cargo containers for segments of lengthier journeys.”7 Moreover, freight trains use “far less energy to move cargo than through trucking.”8
Recent recession
Railroads, like almost all business sectors, suffered during the national downturn. For example, operating revenues for Class I rail freight lines plummeted from $61.2 billion in 2008 to $47.8 billion in 2009.9
But an uptick occurred in 2010 to $58.4 million.10Another encouraging economic sign: having the cash flow for building and maintaining roadbeds (unlike in trucking, which utilizes public roads and highways); the railroad industry plans to spend some $13 billion in private capital to improve its infrastructure.11
Chugging along
Taken together, the rail freight industry is looking to a brighter future as it hauls itself up from a trough. Consider, for example, just two of the seven Class I freight rail carriers. Norfolk Southern, operating approximately 20,000 route miles in the U.S., reported a 17 percent increase in operating revenues for 2011, to $11.2 billion, and net income was $1.9 billion, up 28 percent. And Union Pacific, at 31,900 route miles, reported net income of $3.3 billion for the full year, a jump of 18 percent from the prior year. Operating revenue, the company said, was a record $19.6 billion for the year, up from $17 billion in 2010.
Footnotes:
1Association of American Railroads (October 2011). “Overview of America’s Freight Railroads.” Retrieved from http://www.aar.org/~/media/aar/Background-Papers/Overview%20of%20US%20Freight%20RRs%20October%2019%202011.ashx.
2Ibid.
3Ibid.
4Association of American Railroads (October 2011). “The Cost Effectiveness of America’s Freight Railroads.” Retrieved from http://www.aar.org/~/media/aar/Background-Papers/The-Cost-Effectiveness-of-Freight.ashx.
5Ibid.
6“The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Canadian Pacific Railway, CSX, Union Pacific, Canadian National Railway and Norfolk Southern.” (March 12, 2012). Zacks.com, property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc. Retrieved from http://www.zacks.com/pr/71115/the-zacks-analyst-blog-highlights-canadian-pacific-railway-csx-union-pacific-canadian-national-railway-and-norfolk-southern.
7Standard & Poor’s Rating Services. (March 27, 2012). “Infrastructure Spending Keeps Rails and Trucks Moving.” Retrieved from http://mobile.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWNA349920120327.
8“Recent Performance Review For 5 North American Railroads.” (March 29, 2012). SeekingAlpha.com. Retrieved from http://seekingalpha.com/article/467351-recent-performance-review-for-5-north-american-railroads.
9Association of American Railroads. (June 2011.) “Class I Railroad Statistics.” Retrieved from http://www.aar.org/~/media/aar/Industry%20Info/AAR-Stats-2011-0617.ashx.
10Ibid.
11Standard & Poor’s Rating Services. (March 27, 2012). “Infrastructure Spending Keeps Rails and Trucks Moving.”
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Yawn
Stable, moderate, modest, steady, measured. These are some of the words that jump off the pages of the latest Beige Book report on the American economy from the Federal Reserve. There were a few areas that justified the use of terms like strong, increased, expanded, and stimulated. But there were also the words softened, cautiously optimistic, and slow.
It would probably be unrealistic to expect an official economic analysis to say the status is foggy and the outlook bleak and likely to become worse. A report like that quickly becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The latest summary, prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and based on information gathered on or before July 8, is not aglow with optimism, however. "Overall economic activity continued to increase at a modest to moderate pace since the previous survey," the report said.
Another survey, prepared by the International Monetary Fund, said the U.S. economy is likely to increase by 1.75 percent this year, and is projected to increase its output by 2.75 percent next year, even as growth worldwide remains "subdued."
Real estate people, however, perennially an optimistic bunch, see a pickup coming as they look at improving sales of new and existing homes. A REAL Trends market report said housing sales in June were up 10.2 percent from a year ago, and the average price of homes sold rose by 7.8 percent.
That report, released today, joins earlier reports from builders, sales agents and lenders, all of whom see a brighter future for the industry.
Taken together, however, official reports from government sources call for more a more cautious outlook. Regardless of attempts to pump up individual sets of numbers, the overall economy has not yet awakened.
It would probably be unrealistic to expect an official economic analysis to say the status is foggy and the outlook bleak and likely to become worse. A report like that quickly becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The latest summary, prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and based on information gathered on or before July 8, is not aglow with optimism, however. "Overall economic activity continued to increase at a modest to moderate pace since the previous survey," the report said.
Another survey, prepared by the International Monetary Fund, said the U.S. economy is likely to increase by 1.75 percent this year, and is projected to increase its output by 2.75 percent next year, even as growth worldwide remains "subdued."
Real estate people, however, perennially an optimistic bunch, see a pickup coming as they look at improving sales of new and existing homes. A REAL Trends market report said housing sales in June were up 10.2 percent from a year ago, and the average price of homes sold rose by 7.8 percent.
That report, released today, joins earlier reports from builders, sales agents and lenders, all of whom see a brighter future for the industry.
Taken together, however, official reports from government sources call for more a more cautious outlook. Regardless of attempts to pump up individual sets of numbers, the overall economy has not yet awakened.
Tuesday, July 16, 2013
Growing Pains
That's the title of the latest update from the International Monetary Fund on the World Economic Outlook. In short, don't look for much change.
For the year, the IMF said global growth will "remain subdued" at slightly above 3 percent, the same as last year, and less than forecast when the Outlook was issued in April. "Fiscal consolidation" -- read: less government spending -- will continue to hold back growth, and emerging market economies, which depend on the bigger spenders, will suffer more as interest rates rise.
And as the U.S. unwinds its monetary stimulus, as the Federal Reserve has suggested several times recently, money mavens will look elsewhere to stash their cash, the IMF hinted.
Capital controls, rules that prevent cash from leaving a country, have already hurt some countries -- Cyprus is the latest example -- and this will hurt emerging market economies even more, along with rising interest rates.
A "more protracted recession" in the euro area, which could even worsen, will also contribute to slower performance. Activity in the euro area is expected to contract by half a percentage point this year, the IMF said, and will rise to just under 1 percent in 2014, "weaker than previously projected."
As for U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), it grew by just 1.8 percent in the first quarter of this year. Initial estimates for the second fiscal quarter -- April, May and June -- are expected to be announced July 31 by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Home builders, meanwhile, are gaining confidence. An index of confidence among those who build single-family homes rose six points to 57, the third consecutive monthly gain and the strongest reading since January, 2006. That from the National Association of Home Builders, who released the results of the monthly survey today.
The NAHB credited increased confidence among buyers, and a sliding availability of existing homes for sale.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR), for its part, said sales of existing homes continued to rise, as well as prices. And the NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, warned that "unless new home construction ramps up quickly," prices will continue to rise. In May, the median home price rose at a double-digit pace from a year ago, the NAR said.
However, as mortgage rates rise and unemployment remains a serious question, applications for home loans, both for purchasers of new homes and for existing homes, are declining, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
It's a complex picture, one that can be hard to grasp. Why, one might ask, should I care about international developments when I'm trying to focus on a job and buying a house? Because, the answer comes back, we live in an international economy, and what happens in one nation could easily affect the prospects of another.
As the poet said, "No man is an island."
For the year, the IMF said global growth will "remain subdued" at slightly above 3 percent, the same as last year, and less than forecast when the Outlook was issued in April. "Fiscal consolidation" -- read: less government spending -- will continue to hold back growth, and emerging market economies, which depend on the bigger spenders, will suffer more as interest rates rise.
And as the U.S. unwinds its monetary stimulus, as the Federal Reserve has suggested several times recently, money mavens will look elsewhere to stash their cash, the IMF hinted.
Capital controls, rules that prevent cash from leaving a country, have already hurt some countries -- Cyprus is the latest example -- and this will hurt emerging market economies even more, along with rising interest rates.
A "more protracted recession" in the euro area, which could even worsen, will also contribute to slower performance. Activity in the euro area is expected to contract by half a percentage point this year, the IMF said, and will rise to just under 1 percent in 2014, "weaker than previously projected."
As for U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), it grew by just 1.8 percent in the first quarter of this year. Initial estimates for the second fiscal quarter -- April, May and June -- are expected to be announced July 31 by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Home builders, meanwhile, are gaining confidence. An index of confidence among those who build single-family homes rose six points to 57, the third consecutive monthly gain and the strongest reading since January, 2006. That from the National Association of Home Builders, who released the results of the monthly survey today.
The NAHB credited increased confidence among buyers, and a sliding availability of existing homes for sale.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR), for its part, said sales of existing homes continued to rise, as well as prices. And the NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, warned that "unless new home construction ramps up quickly," prices will continue to rise. In May, the median home price rose at a double-digit pace from a year ago, the NAR said.
However, as mortgage rates rise and unemployment remains a serious question, applications for home loans, both for purchasers of new homes and for existing homes, are declining, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
It's a complex picture, one that can be hard to grasp. Why, one might ask, should I care about international developments when I'm trying to focus on a job and buying a house? Because, the answer comes back, we live in an international economy, and what happens in one nation could easily affect the prospects of another.
As the poet said, "No man is an island."
Sunday, July 14, 2013
Media Comments
Some comments have come in about recent postings. On the Media Memo, the current administration is zealous in going after leaks, and news outlets are feeling the brunt of "a heavy hand of government." Sometimes, the cloak of anonymity is the only way to get information critical to a story. Journalists on occasion need this method, and should not give in to government pressure, "even if it means going to jail."
The New York Times reported July 12 that under the Obama Administration, "prosecutors have filed charges in seven leak-related cases to date, compared with three under all previous presidents combined."
Attorney General Eric Holder says investigators will back off, following stricter guidelines issued Thursday. We'll see.
While all this kerfuffle is going on about leaks and confidential sources, keep in mind that politicians have long used "leaks" to reporters to float an idea and determine what reaction it would have if actually introduced. That way, if the trial balloon bursts, the politician can deny ever having said it. On the other hand, if the idea gets a favorable public reaction, the official can proceed and claim credit for introducing it. Both sides win, sort of. The journalist gets a scoop, and the politician escapes injury if the idea falls flat.
Also, on the reaction to the data scooping, "It's not just France that has a problem," another correspondent writes. Across Europe there are data protection laws which prevent the holders of information about individuals from sharing that information with anyone. France may simply be the first to start the legal process."
So is Edward Snowden a spy or traitor for releasing details of the snooping program to journalists, or a man of principle who sacrificed a great deal? Consider this: A spy would have sold the information to a foreign government, taken the money and gone to ground to live out his life in anonymous luxury. Snowden did not. He went public, and is now a man without a country, job or family, and facing criminal charges. Many have already decided what he is. More detail, however, continues to become available, so it may be a good idea to withhold judgement.
The New York Times reported July 12 that under the Obama Administration, "prosecutors have filed charges in seven leak-related cases to date, compared with three under all previous presidents combined."
Attorney General Eric Holder says investigators will back off, following stricter guidelines issued Thursday. We'll see.
While all this kerfuffle is going on about leaks and confidential sources, keep in mind that politicians have long used "leaks" to reporters to float an idea and determine what reaction it would have if actually introduced. That way, if the trial balloon bursts, the politician can deny ever having said it. On the other hand, if the idea gets a favorable public reaction, the official can proceed and claim credit for introducing it. Both sides win, sort of. The journalist gets a scoop, and the politician escapes injury if the idea falls flat.
Also, on the reaction to the data scooping, "It's not just France that has a problem," another correspondent writes. Across Europe there are data protection laws which prevent the holders of information about individuals from sharing that information with anyone. France may simply be the first to start the legal process."
So is Edward Snowden a spy or traitor for releasing details of the snooping program to journalists, or a man of principle who sacrificed a great deal? Consider this: A spy would have sold the information to a foreign government, taken the money and gone to ground to live out his life in anonymous luxury. Snowden did not. He went public, and is now a man without a country, job or family, and facing criminal charges. Many have already decided what he is. More detail, however, continues to become available, so it may be a good idea to withhold judgement.
Saturday, July 13, 2013
Media Memo
Question: When and how is it OK for government to track news reporters in its efforts to gather evidence and prosecute wrongdoers?
Put another way, is the news media an investigative arm of the government?
Supposedly, reporters notes cannot be subpoenaed and reporters can't be ordered to reveal their sources. This is true in many states, but there is no federal shield law protecting reporters. Even so, on the state level many reporters avoid the problem by not saving their notes. That way, if they are called to testify, they can stand by what appeared in print, and as for anything else, they don't remember. Some police do something similar; once an investigation is complete and written up, notes are destroyed.
So to get around a legal ban on rummaging through a reporter's notes and research materials, including phone records and email messages, the FBI has labeled a news reporter a co-conspirator, and therefore fair game for prosecutors.
In this reporter's experience, it was pointless to ask the FBI for information on a particular story. The standard response was, "We never comment on investigations. We don't even acknowledge that there is an investigation. So tell me, what do you know?"
This reporter's answer: "I'm not an investigative arm of the government. Anything I do know you can read about in tomorrow's paper, along with everyone else."
For some lawmen, however, that's not enough. They want to know a reporter's sources, as well as information that was not printed, speculative and otherwise, as well as why a reporter chose not to use it.
In short, they want to recruit news reporters into becoming researchers and investigators -- willingly or otherwise -- for prosecutors. And one way to do that is to threaten and/or charge reporters as co-conspirators -- accuse them of being part of a criminal enterprise, since they know something about what's going on. In recent years, this was a common tactic used as part of government efforts to find and plug leaks. (Politicians like to control the message and the information flow.)
Leaks and confidential sources have long been standard in the news media tool kit for uncovering stories that expose political goofs. And government types are equally adept at finding ways to cover themselves. Some of these ways, however, cross a moral, if not a legal, line and become unconstitutional. Some grossly so, by nature of being secret.
Thus it was with the National Security Administration. In its zeal and in the name of national security, the NSA would scoop up myriad amounts of information, including the number and duration of telephone calls made from one location to another, the number and types of email messages -- text and graphic as well as video -- from one user to others, and look for patterns that would, they hoped, reveal potential terrorist suspects. And that's the program that was exposed by news reporters, who were given the information by an NSA contract employee named Edward Snowden.
The Administration claims it was not monitoring phone calls or reading email stuff, especially that stuff sent by American citizens, except if it was going to or from countries and regions that potentially harbored terrorists.
There's an awful lot of ifs, excepts, unlesses, potentials and maybes in there. And now, the Attorney General, after all the flap about the exposure of the governments super dooper scooper snooper program, says the government is revising its guidelines as to what and how the FBI can deal with reporters in its leak-plugging efforts.
Naughty, naughty, says the boss. Don't do that again. Here's how you should do it, if you really need to. So if you don't trust the traditional news media accounts of the government's new plan, you can read the new guidelines for yourself. It's called the "Report on Review of News Media Policies." It's dated July 12, 2013, and it's available on the Department of Justice web site. Here's a link: http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2013/July/13-ag-783.html. This displays a statement by Attorney General Eric Holder on the release of the report, and carries a further link to the report itself.
As for the privacy issue, and whether government has any business, right or duty to monitor citizen communication and /or to encourage members of corporate America to provide their data stock to the scoopers, consider this: Europeans have long had a practically inbred suspicion of anything that smacks of secret police activity, and efforts to get folks to fink on their neighbors. There is such a thing a privacy, they say. And in France, officials are considering lawsuits against American data companies that give stuff to the U.S. government about French citizens. This violates French privacy laws, they say.
So the French are mad as hell, and they're not gonna take it any more.
And they're not the only ones. Ask people in Germany and those from the former Soviet countries about secret police.
It can't happen here, you say? On the contrary, it can, and very nearly did. And not just in fiction.
Finally, keep in mind this blogger's motto: Belief without thought endangers freedom.
Put another way, is the news media an investigative arm of the government?
Supposedly, reporters notes cannot be subpoenaed and reporters can't be ordered to reveal their sources. This is true in many states, but there is no federal shield law protecting reporters. Even so, on the state level many reporters avoid the problem by not saving their notes. That way, if they are called to testify, they can stand by what appeared in print, and as for anything else, they don't remember. Some police do something similar; once an investigation is complete and written up, notes are destroyed.
So to get around a legal ban on rummaging through a reporter's notes and research materials, including phone records and email messages, the FBI has labeled a news reporter a co-conspirator, and therefore fair game for prosecutors.
In this reporter's experience, it was pointless to ask the FBI for information on a particular story. The standard response was, "We never comment on investigations. We don't even acknowledge that there is an investigation. So tell me, what do you know?"
This reporter's answer: "I'm not an investigative arm of the government. Anything I do know you can read about in tomorrow's paper, along with everyone else."
For some lawmen, however, that's not enough. They want to know a reporter's sources, as well as information that was not printed, speculative and otherwise, as well as why a reporter chose not to use it.
In short, they want to recruit news reporters into becoming researchers and investigators -- willingly or otherwise -- for prosecutors. And one way to do that is to threaten and/or charge reporters as co-conspirators -- accuse them of being part of a criminal enterprise, since they know something about what's going on. In recent years, this was a common tactic used as part of government efforts to find and plug leaks. (Politicians like to control the message and the information flow.)
Leaks and confidential sources have long been standard in the news media tool kit for uncovering stories that expose political goofs. And government types are equally adept at finding ways to cover themselves. Some of these ways, however, cross a moral, if not a legal, line and become unconstitutional. Some grossly so, by nature of being secret.
Thus it was with the National Security Administration. In its zeal and in the name of national security, the NSA would scoop up myriad amounts of information, including the number and duration of telephone calls made from one location to another, the number and types of email messages -- text and graphic as well as video -- from one user to others, and look for patterns that would, they hoped, reveal potential terrorist suspects. And that's the program that was exposed by news reporters, who were given the information by an NSA contract employee named Edward Snowden.
The Administration claims it was not monitoring phone calls or reading email stuff, especially that stuff sent by American citizens, except if it was going to or from countries and regions that potentially harbored terrorists.
There's an awful lot of ifs, excepts, unlesses, potentials and maybes in there. And now, the Attorney General, after all the flap about the exposure of the governments super dooper scooper snooper program, says the government is revising its guidelines as to what and how the FBI can deal with reporters in its leak-plugging efforts.
Naughty, naughty, says the boss. Don't do that again. Here's how you should do it, if you really need to. So if you don't trust the traditional news media accounts of the government's new plan, you can read the new guidelines for yourself. It's called the "Report on Review of News Media Policies." It's dated July 12, 2013, and it's available on the Department of Justice web site. Here's a link: http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2013/July/13-ag-783.html. This displays a statement by Attorney General Eric Holder on the release of the report, and carries a further link to the report itself.
As for the privacy issue, and whether government has any business, right or duty to monitor citizen communication and /or to encourage members of corporate America to provide their data stock to the scoopers, consider this: Europeans have long had a practically inbred suspicion of anything that smacks of secret police activity, and efforts to get folks to fink on their neighbors. There is such a thing a privacy, they say. And in France, officials are considering lawsuits against American data companies that give stuff to the U.S. government about French citizens. This violates French privacy laws, they say.
So the French are mad as hell, and they're not gonna take it any more.
And they're not the only ones. Ask people in Germany and those from the former Soviet countries about secret police.
It can't happen here, you say? On the contrary, it can, and very nearly did. And not just in fiction.
Finally, keep in mind this blogger's motto: Belief without thought endangers freedom.
Friday, July 12, 2013
Lawyers
A lawyer's job is to defend the client, and a lawyer will often say the darnedest things in an effort to discredit responsibility or fault for a client's alleged actions. And in doing so, it seems lawyers want jurors who are intelligent but don't think. That is, they are smart enough to understand what the lawyer is saying, but not so smart as to see through the smoke.
Herewith, some comments on the trial of George Zimmerman in Florida.
There is no question that Zimmerman shot teenager Trayvon Martin; that was acknowledged early on, when the community security guard described the shooting to police. When charged with murder, Zimmerman pleaded self defense, relying on Florida's "stand your ground" law. During summation, the defense lawyer argued that a person need not actually be in danger, but only that the person fear he be in danger. That, the defense said, is enough to justify shooting someone, in self defense. The defense lawyer, while acknowledging that the teenager was unarmed, noted that he did have a weapon -- the sidewalk and his fists, which supposedly were used to inflict head injuries on Zimmerman.
Other experts have pointed out that while on the telephone to a 911 operator, Zimmerman was told not to follow the person he felt was "up to no good." Instead, legal analysts say, the appropriate thing to do would be to walk away. Call police, and stay away. Let law enforcement officers deal with a situation that may -- or may not -- be dangerous.
However, Florida law says a person is entitled to "stand your ground." But discretion is often a wiser course.
Meanwhile, the jury retired for the day Friday evening, and was scheduled to resume deliberations Saturday morning. One charge is murder. An alternate is manslaughter. At issue is whether Zimmerman was justified in the shooting because he feared he was in imminent danger, and therefore was not guilty.
Either way, Zimmerman is not likely to be able to stay in the same town. If guilty, he goes to jail. If not, he may have to deal with irate citizens, or leave town to start over elsewhere with a new identity.
Addendum: By Saturday evening, July 13, 2013, the verdict came in. Not guilty. Both sides presented their cases, the jury deliberated and decided. It's time to respect that verdict.
Herewith, some comments on the trial of George Zimmerman in Florida.
There is no question that Zimmerman shot teenager Trayvon Martin; that was acknowledged early on, when the community security guard described the shooting to police. When charged with murder, Zimmerman pleaded self defense, relying on Florida's "stand your ground" law. During summation, the defense lawyer argued that a person need not actually be in danger, but only that the person fear he be in danger. That, the defense said, is enough to justify shooting someone, in self defense. The defense lawyer, while acknowledging that the teenager was unarmed, noted that he did have a weapon -- the sidewalk and his fists, which supposedly were used to inflict head injuries on Zimmerman.
Other experts have pointed out that while on the telephone to a 911 operator, Zimmerman was told not to follow the person he felt was "up to no good." Instead, legal analysts say, the appropriate thing to do would be to walk away. Call police, and stay away. Let law enforcement officers deal with a situation that may -- or may not -- be dangerous.
However, Florida law says a person is entitled to "stand your ground." But discretion is often a wiser course.
Meanwhile, the jury retired for the day Friday evening, and was scheduled to resume deliberations Saturday morning. One charge is murder. An alternate is manslaughter. At issue is whether Zimmerman was justified in the shooting because he feared he was in imminent danger, and therefore was not guilty.
Either way, Zimmerman is not likely to be able to stay in the same town. If guilty, he goes to jail. If not, he may have to deal with irate citizens, or leave town to start over elsewhere with a new identity.
----
Addendum: By Saturday evening, July 13, 2013, the verdict came in. Not guilty. Both sides presented their cases, the jury deliberated and decided. It's time to respect that verdict.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Front Page Musings
The latest chapter in the series on change in the news biz has to do with the breakup of The Tribune Company into separate print and broadcast entities. No surprise here, since it's been talked about for weeks, and reflects a corporate desire to go after lucrative broadcast ad revenue even as print operations struggle.
One big question, of course, is whether major newspapers like the Chicago Tribune and the Los Angeles Times, both owned by The Tribune Company, will survive. The quick answer is, certainly they will. They will be different, however, since many folks get their news and views from television, and surf the Internet for breaking news as well as background information. And as TV operations broaden and attract more writers and reporters to the supposedly more glamorous world of broadcasting, print suffers not only from revenue losses, but also personnel losses -- some of which, of course, are self-inflicted as newspapers trim staff to save money.
But that doesn't mean a soaring increase in out-of-work journalists. The delivery system has changed, but news gathering still starts with a reporter and a note pad.
Processing the text is far more efficient than the days of typewriters, Linotype machines, compositors handling (literally) the type to make up pages, proofreaders, and others as the story made its way from the newsroom to the presses. Entire departments were eliminated by the advent of computers and computerized page makeup. And where once a major city daily would have 200 people working in the composing room and fewer than 50 in the newsroom, those numbers in many cases have been reversed. So, yes, the composing room had fewer printers union members working, but the newsroom had more reporters and editors.
In addition, technology allowed more pages to be made up faster, so that meant more room for advertising. And that, of course, is what pays the publishing bills.
As for jobs in journalism, the business has changed along with the technology. There may not be as many writing jobs available in hard-copy print media, but there are more in the electronic media. After all, writing still starts with a notebook and the ability to put words together -- spelled correctly. Moreover, even as the several segments of the information industry compete for business -- print, broadcast and Internet -- it's important to remember that many folks don't have access to a computer, and many others prefer the tactile sensation of holding their information source. It also has the feel of being more permanent, and can't be changed by hackers.
There is also a thing called "revenge editing," where someone with ill intent goes into a web site and deliberately changes textual references. Wikipedia has been battling this for years.
And as NBC News reported tonight (Thursday), the Kremlin is looking to buy manual typewriters so they can return to hard copy data storage.
One big question, of course, is whether major newspapers like the Chicago Tribune and the Los Angeles Times, both owned by The Tribune Company, will survive. The quick answer is, certainly they will. They will be different, however, since many folks get their news and views from television, and surf the Internet for breaking news as well as background information. And as TV operations broaden and attract more writers and reporters to the supposedly more glamorous world of broadcasting, print suffers not only from revenue losses, but also personnel losses -- some of which, of course, are self-inflicted as newspapers trim staff to save money.
But that doesn't mean a soaring increase in out-of-work journalists. The delivery system has changed, but news gathering still starts with a reporter and a note pad.
Processing the text is far more efficient than the days of typewriters, Linotype machines, compositors handling (literally) the type to make up pages, proofreaders, and others as the story made its way from the newsroom to the presses. Entire departments were eliminated by the advent of computers and computerized page makeup. And where once a major city daily would have 200 people working in the composing room and fewer than 50 in the newsroom, those numbers in many cases have been reversed. So, yes, the composing room had fewer printers union members working, but the newsroom had more reporters and editors.
In addition, technology allowed more pages to be made up faster, so that meant more room for advertising. And that, of course, is what pays the publishing bills.
As for jobs in journalism, the business has changed along with the technology. There may not be as many writing jobs available in hard-copy print media, but there are more in the electronic media. After all, writing still starts with a notebook and the ability to put words together -- spelled correctly. Moreover, even as the several segments of the information industry compete for business -- print, broadcast and Internet -- it's important to remember that many folks don't have access to a computer, and many others prefer the tactile sensation of holding their information source. It also has the feel of being more permanent, and can't be changed by hackers.
There is also a thing called "revenge editing," where someone with ill intent goes into a web site and deliberately changes textual references. Wikipedia has been battling this for years.
And as NBC News reported tonight (Thursday), the Kremlin is looking to buy manual typewriters so they can return to hard copy data storage.
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Euro Out of Line
"I don't give a damn about a greenback dollar, I spend it fast as I can." -- Old American folk song.
A dollar's a dollar, whether you spend it in Manhattan, NY, or in Manhattan, KS. It may go further -- that is, get you more stuff -- in Kansas than in New York City, but it's still a dollar, recognized and accepted as "legal tender for all debts, public and private." (That's what it says on each bill. You could look it up.) And it's issued by a single, federal government.
That's not the case in Europe, where each of the 17 nations that use the euro as a common currency issues its own version of the bill. Supposedly, a euro made in one country is equal to a euro made in another. But the euro issued in Cyprus is not always accepted by folks in other euro zone member states. Reason: A bailout program for banks in Cyprus put strict controls on money there.
In effect, Cypriot euros can't leave the country. It's like earning a salary in Philadelphia and not being able to spend it in New Jersey. That was, in fact, the case in the early years of the American republic, until a stronger federal government garnered the ability to issue money.
So with some members of the European Union in trouble, and their economies about to collapse, will the quarantine of the Cypriot euro be the domino that takes down the grand plan? It seems likely, fulfilling suspicions that have been lurking on the sidelines for months.
Or at least, Cyprus will zone out of the euro and try to survive with its own currency.
A dollar's a dollar, whether you spend it in Manhattan, NY, or in Manhattan, KS. It may go further -- that is, get you more stuff -- in Kansas than in New York City, but it's still a dollar, recognized and accepted as "legal tender for all debts, public and private." (That's what it says on each bill. You could look it up.) And it's issued by a single, federal government.
That's not the case in Europe, where each of the 17 nations that use the euro as a common currency issues its own version of the bill. Supposedly, a euro made in one country is equal to a euro made in another. But the euro issued in Cyprus is not always accepted by folks in other euro zone member states. Reason: A bailout program for banks in Cyprus put strict controls on money there.
In effect, Cypriot euros can't leave the country. It's like earning a salary in Philadelphia and not being able to spend it in New Jersey. That was, in fact, the case in the early years of the American republic, until a stronger federal government garnered the ability to issue money.
So with some members of the European Union in trouble, and their economies about to collapse, will the quarantine of the Cypriot euro be the domino that takes down the grand plan? It seems likely, fulfilling suspicions that have been lurking on the sidelines for months.
Or at least, Cyprus will zone out of the euro and try to survive with its own currency.
Stay The Course
Stay the course, the Federal Reserve Board said as it released the minutes of its last meeting. "Economic activity continued to increase at a moderate rate in the second quarter," the minutes reported, with private-sector employment expanding but the unemployment rate still elevated. Housing prices continued to rise, as did mortgage rates.
The projection for near-term growth in output (GDP) "was little changed" from that of the previous board meeting. But fiscal policy -- government spending projects -- is still expected to restrain economic growth this year. However, GDP growth will accelerate "gradually" in 2014 and 2015, as the Fed continues to pump up the money flow and government eventually eases its fiscal policy restraint.
All things considered, the Fed feels that growth will continue "despite tighter fiscal policy," so the central bank will keep up its "highly accommodative" monetary policy, and reaffirmed its plan to keep interest rates low -- zero to a quarter of one percent -- as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 percent and inflation stays no more than a half-point above the board's 2 percent goal.
The projection for near-term growth in output (GDP) "was little changed" from that of the previous board meeting. But fiscal policy -- government spending projects -- is still expected to restrain economic growth this year. However, GDP growth will accelerate "gradually" in 2014 and 2015, as the Fed continues to pump up the money flow and government eventually eases its fiscal policy restraint.
All things considered, the Fed feels that growth will continue "despite tighter fiscal policy," so the central bank will keep up its "highly accommodative" monetary policy, and reaffirmed its plan to keep interest rates low -- zero to a quarter of one percent -- as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 percent and inflation stays no more than a half-point above the board's 2 percent goal.
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
Trading, Trading, Over the Unbound Seas
The Western World is trying to dismantle trade barriers.
Remember all the fuss about NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement? It cleared away a lot of barriers and led to increased business among the several nations that signed on. Remember the European Common Market, which cleared away a lot of trade barriers and led to the formation of the EU, the European Union?
Now suppose the EU and the U.S. get together and clear away a lot of trade barriers and increase business by billions of dollars yearly across the pond. Talks got under way this week to do just that. And if successful, it will lead to the largest marketplace ever. That, however, is a very big if.
In a way, it's a side door for other NAFTA nations. Consider this: Canada likes it, because it will expand auto exports, which are now about 13,000 vehicles from Canada to the EU, but 114,000 the other way, according to the Canadian Press. The U.S. likes it because it will open European doors for more U.S. exports.
Some Europeans, however, don't like it because it may provide more opportunities for data-gathering -- read spying -- by the U.S. on a scale revealed recently.
Moreover, there are regulatory issues, many of which contradict each other. For example, the BBC reported that cheese made in Europe from unpasteurized milk is not allowed in America, and American chicken processors use a bleach bath to reduce contamination, a process banned in Europe.
Details, details, details.
And medicines. A drug licensed for sale in America may take another two years before it's cleared for use in Europe, and vice-versa, the BBC reported. So what if a drug is approved for use in Europe, is it then automatically approved for use in America? That's another issue to be settled. Perhaps a single international food and drug agency would be set up, but who would be the members, and would one side dominate?
Remember thalidomide? It was approved for use in Europe, but blocked in the U.S. Results in Europe were disastrous, but American mothers and their babies escaped the infant deformities that resulted when pregnant women took the medication.
On the whole, economics teaches that eliminating trade barriers is a good thing. Politics, however, clashes with economics when tariffs are set up in one country to protect certain industries and workers.
Remember all the fuss about NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement? It cleared away a lot of barriers and led to increased business among the several nations that signed on. Remember the European Common Market, which cleared away a lot of trade barriers and led to the formation of the EU, the European Union?
Now suppose the EU and the U.S. get together and clear away a lot of trade barriers and increase business by billions of dollars yearly across the pond. Talks got under way this week to do just that. And if successful, it will lead to the largest marketplace ever. That, however, is a very big if.
In a way, it's a side door for other NAFTA nations. Consider this: Canada likes it, because it will expand auto exports, which are now about 13,000 vehicles from Canada to the EU, but 114,000 the other way, according to the Canadian Press. The U.S. likes it because it will open European doors for more U.S. exports.
Some Europeans, however, don't like it because it may provide more opportunities for data-gathering -- read spying -- by the U.S. on a scale revealed recently.
Moreover, there are regulatory issues, many of which contradict each other. For example, the BBC reported that cheese made in Europe from unpasteurized milk is not allowed in America, and American chicken processors use a bleach bath to reduce contamination, a process banned in Europe.
Details, details, details.
And medicines. A drug licensed for sale in America may take another two years before it's cleared for use in Europe, and vice-versa, the BBC reported. So what if a drug is approved for use in Europe, is it then automatically approved for use in America? That's another issue to be settled. Perhaps a single international food and drug agency would be set up, but who would be the members, and would one side dominate?
Remember thalidomide? It was approved for use in Europe, but blocked in the U.S. Results in Europe were disastrous, but American mothers and their babies escaped the infant deformities that resulted when pregnant women took the medication.
On the whole, economics teaches that eliminating trade barriers is a good thing. Politics, however, clashes with economics when tariffs are set up in one country to protect certain industries and workers.
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