Growing Pains

   That's the title of the latest update from the International Monetary Fund on the World Economic Outlook. In short, don't look for much change.
   For the year, the IMF said global growth will "remain subdued" at slightly above 3 percent, the same as last year, and less than forecast when the Outlook was issued in April. "Fiscal consolidation" -- read: less government spending -- will continue to hold back growth, and emerging market economies, which depend on the bigger spenders, will suffer more as interest rates rise.
   And as the U.S. unwinds its monetary stimulus, as the Federal Reserve has suggested several times recently, money mavens will look elsewhere to stash their cash, the IMF hinted.
   Capital controls, rules that prevent cash from leaving a country, have already hurt some countries -- Cyprus is the latest example -- and this will hurt emerging market economies even more, along with rising interest rates.
   A "more protracted recession" in the euro area, which could even worsen, will also contribute to slower performance. Activity in the euro area is expected to contract by half a percentage point this year, the IMF said, and will rise to just under 1 percent in 2014, "weaker than previously projected."

   As for U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), it grew by just 1.8 percent in the first quarter of this year. Initial estimates for the second fiscal quarter -- April, May and June -- are expected to be announced July 31 by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
   Home builders, meanwhile, are gaining confidence. An index of confidence among those who build single-family homes rose six points to 57, the third consecutive monthly gain and the strongest reading since January, 2006. That from the National Association of Home Builders, who released the results of the monthly survey today.
   The NAHB credited increased confidence among buyers, and a sliding availability of existing homes for sale.
   The National Association of Realtors (NAR), for its part, said sales of existing homes continued to rise, as well as prices. And the NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, warned that "unless new home construction ramps up quickly," prices will continue to rise. In May, the median home price rose at a double-digit pace from a year ago, the NAR said.
   However, as mortgage rates rise and unemployment remains a serious question, applications for home loans, both for purchasers of new homes and for existing homes, are declining, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
   It's a complex picture, one that can be hard to grasp. Why, one might ask, should I care about international developments when I'm trying to focus on a job and buying a house? Because, the answer comes back, we live in an international economy, and what happens in one nation could easily affect the prospects of another.
   As the poet said, "No man is an island."