Relapse

   Economic recovery is being stalled by aftershocks of the American government shutdown as well as continuing efforts by arch-conservatives to block all things Demobama.
   Job growth in the U.S. is still slow, according to the latest figures -- delayed by the shutdown -- and unemployment, while marginally lower -- it's down one-tenth of one percent, to 7.2 percent -- is still too high to be encouraging.
   Home sales are off, said the National Association of Realtors, and other economic indicators are not reassuring.
   Wall Street investors, however, like the idea that the Federal Reserve will likely continue to pump money into the financial system in its continuing effort to heal economic sickness.
   And worldwide, other nations are feeling the fallout from the American storm.

   The diagnosis was right. Big banks got sick from overindulgence in risky investments and heavy doses of liquidity brought them back to health. However, many of them held onto the medicine to keep up their own vital statistics, without passing on the benefits of available funds to customers and consumers, thus slowing the general economic recovery.
   Then came the shutdown, which cut off salary cash flow to 800,000 federal employees, as well as blocking funds that would otherwise have been spent by millions of others.
   Experts have estimated that this episode canceled out what would have been a big chunk of production (GDP) for the 16 days of the shutdown.
   Meanwhile, that hiccup in American GDP will amplify so that the rest of the world will hit an economic sour note.
   Add to that the Federal Reserve Board's latest move to strengthen its rules on liquidity for large, "internationally active banking organizations and systemically important non-bank financial companies." This is good, in that it would help prevent another meltdown such as happened five years ago. But if banks are forced to keep more cash on hand, that will mean less going out in loans to finance business operations.
   
   So does all this mean an economic relapse for the U.S.? Consider these items: 
* Housing sales fell 1.9 percent in September, due to rising prices and higher mortgage rates.
* The unemployment rate has barely moved all summer, sitting at 7.2 percent in September. The only good perspective is to say it has been ticking down by one-tenth of a point each month this year.
* Job growth has been disappointing. The nation added just 148,000 jobs in September.
* Exports of goods and services plateaued, even before the shutdown. The Commerce Department reported a total value of $189.2 billion in exports in August, slightly lower than the $189.3 billion in July; and that was lower than the June figure of $190.5 billion.
* That meant a rise in the trade deficit to $38.8 billion in August, compared to $38.6 billion in July.
* On the whole, exports were off by 0.1 percent, and imports were virtually unchanged, the government said.
* American adults rank third in literacy, numeracy and problem solving, behind Japan and Finland, according to a Census Bureau report.
* Inflation -- a standard measure of rising prices -- slowed to 1.5 percent in August, down from 2.0 percent, according to a survey by the International Monetary Fund.
* Worldwide, in the 20 largest industrialized countries, inflation slowed to an annual rate of 3.0 percent in August, the IMF said, down from 3.2 percent the month before.

   So with trade slowing, production static, job growth crawling, and consumer prices dipping -- a common phenomenon during recessions -- there's a good chance that America is facing a bumpy economic road.
   And with the austerity drumbeat getting louder, those on the high road to prosperity may be detoured to an economic swamp.