Thursday, November 14, 2013

Stalled

   The Great Recession hit hard, and after five years the world's major economies are in recovery mode. But that doesn't mean we have all recovered. Things may be a bit better, but they're still not good.
   Consider these news items:
* Generally, economic growth as measured by GDP (Gross Domestic Product, the total value of all goods and services produced in the country) grew by just 0.7 percent in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, about the same rate as in the second quarter.
   But who you gonna believe? That number comes from Eurostat, the statistical agency of the European Union. The U.S. government, however, put third quarter growth at 2.8 percent, up from 2.5 percent in the second quarter.
* In Europe, GDP is barely moving upward. It grew by 0.1 percent for the 17 nations that use the euro as a common currency, and growth for all 29 nations in the European Union was just 0.2 percent.
* In Japan, the third quarter growth rate dipped to 1.9 percent, from 3.8 percent in the second quarter.
* In Germany, with the healthiest economy in Europe, the pace of growth was cut in half, to 0.3 percent from 0.7 percent.
* Economic growth in the United Kingdom was effectively stalled, at 0.8 percent in the third quarter, compared to 0.7 percent in the second three months of the year.
* In America, exports fell and imports rose from August to September, which pushed the nation's international trade deficit up by 8 percent.
* Finally, the home ownership rate in America has faded and median housing values have dipped. In the survey period 2010-2012, home ownership rate was 64.68 percent, down from 66.41 percent in the prior period, 2007-2009. Median values fell by $17,300 in the same time frame, to $174,600 from $191.900.
   All data are official government agency figures, either from the U.S. Commerce Department and Census Bureau, or from Eurostat, the statistics agency of the European Union, or official Japanese government sources.

   In all, the economies of the world are on the verge of improving, but -- as happened in 1937 when support programs were pulled -- a second fall could happen. And to better understand the problem and find solutions, government and business leaders need numbers to identify specific issues. A major problem during the Great Depression was that there were few statistics at all.
   Today, there are many. However, the recent crisis "also revealed a need for more and better data, data that go beyond traditional statistics," according to David Lipton, deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund. At a forum in Washington this week, Lipton said new data sets are needed "especially as the focus of policy has shifted to the stability of global and domestic financial systems."
   
   Insularity -- closing international doors and trying to solve economic woes alone -- can only worsen any nation's economic and social issues.

   To solve a problem, we must first describe and understand it.

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