Grinch Economics

   "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." -- Franklin D. Roosevelt

   "What, me worry?" -- Alfred E. Neuman
   
   "We have met the enemy, and he is us." -- Pogo

   "Let's get together and feel all right." -- Bob Marley

   It's called Black Friday because this is the time of year when retailers hope and expect that holiday sales will put their year-end accounting books in the black -- that is, show a profit.
   Whether that happens this year won't be known for another few weeks, until the books are closed for the year. Meanwhile, there are larger issues to consider, specifically whether the economy as a whole -- both national and world -- will accelerate its upward trend.
   Yes, there have been signs of hope, but there have also been signs that the recovery is slowing. 
   U.S. Gross Domestic Product, for example, is expected to show a growth pace of just 1.7 percent in the final three months of the year, down from 2.2 percent in the third quarter. GDP growth in Canada is also slowing, to a rate of just 1.7 percent for the year, compared to 2.2 percent in 2012.  And the economy in Mexico is operating "well below capacity," according to a report from the International Monetary Fund. GDP growth in America's southern neighbor is likely to slow to 1.2 percent for the year, down from 3.6 percent last year. And while economic fundamentals in Mexico are "very strong," the IMF said, there are  "downside risks" from "unsettled external conditions."
   In Europe, the unemployment rate is still above 12 percent, and twice that in the more beleaguered members of the European Union.
   Statistics Canada, the official government agency, reported that the unemployment rate nationally is holding at 6.9 percent. That's lower than the U.S. rate of 7.3 percent and the 7.6 percent in Britain. In Germany, one of the few European countries still prospering, the unemployment rate in November was unchanged at 6.5 percent. And in Mexico, the rate dropped to 5.01 percent in October, from 5.29 percent in September.
   So things may be looking almost good in Mexico, but outside influences may deflect progress.

   So should Americans worry? It's true that the U.S. economy, as measured by GDP, the total value of all goods and services produced in America, at $16 trillion is four times as much as the economies of Canada and Mexico combined.
   But bigger doesn't always mean better. And if the U.S.  giant stumbles, it can knock down its northern and southern neighbors. Moreover, if production in America loses export markets in Europe, that can exacerbate conditions here.
   The reverse also applies. If Americans cut back on import purchases, European as well as Canadian and Mexican economies will suffer.

   No nation can shut its borders to outside business partners. That's been tried before, most notably during the Great Depression, when the Smoot-Hawley tariff act closed America to foreign sellers in an effort to shore up troubled domestic producers.
   It led to a world disaster, as other nations retaliated with high import taxes on American goods.