Bearing Down

   So which is better, to come late to the party or to leave early before everyone else gets stoned?
   Financial advisors are fond of warning against trying to time the market, because predicting human behavior is always risky. 
  Nonetheless, whether stock prices continue to fall into a bear market slumber or recover quickly from its correction cat nap is open to debate. And yes, while cynicism is endemic among journalists and anathema to speculators, it remains true that stock market indexes on Wall Street stumbled again Friday as investors paid increasing attention to economic conditions in the rest of the world.
   Will the market crash as it did in 1929, 2000 and 2008? There are some who have already started to cry wolf. Fortune.com is quoting Albert Edwards of Societe Generale as predicting a Wall Street plunge of as much as 75 percent. USA Today noted that the stock market has drained $1.5 trillion in value just in the past two weeks.
   Some call it only a "correction," which is when prices fall off by 10 percent, and that now is the time to buy. Others are more pessimistic, and call it "technically a bear market."
   Among major indexes, the Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq all dropped more than 2 percent yesterday, in addition to the trimming they have taken so far this year. And the price of crude oil dripped below $30 a barrel, compared to more than $100 barely two years ago.
   On top of that, the Federal Reserve pointed to a drop in industrial production in December for the third consecutive month. Retail sales in America have also fallen.
   Meanwhile, what will the presidential candidates have to say? Will the Republicans put all the blame on the incumbent Democrat, Barack Obama, and will they promise happy days for all if voters trust in them, regardless of the consistent growth of the past seven years?
   And will Democratic candidates stress optimism about how things really are, notwithstanding negative numbers of recent days? Will they urge a longer view, that past crashes happened during Republican administrations, and that the U.S. economy is fundamentally sound, and able to withstand global drag-down pressures?
   We live in interesting times.