Media Message

   Increasingly, mainstream media outlets are warning that economic weakness in other nations likely will drag down recovery in the U.S.
   But because newsroom types believe economics is "too hard" for them to write about, the message is often slow to get out. This is not helped by the sputtering invective of presidential candidates, more interested in insulting opponents and media outlets than in stating understandable policies.
   Granted, it's easier to report a fight than to describe a serious discussion, but that's a reason, not an excuse.
   Meanwhile, conservatives continue their drumbeat of demands to reduce the size of government, assailing the rising government deficit. True, the Congressional Budget Office says the size of the federal deficit will increase next year as the economy recovers, from $439 billion in 2015 to $479 billion in 2016. But relative to the size of the economy, that's a rise of barely one-tenth of one percent, from 2.4 percent to 2.5 percent.
   As the new century began, federal deficits declined as the nation climbed out of the 2000-02 recession, according to the web site usgovernmentspending.com, down to 1.1 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2007. "But the recession that started late in 2006 drove deficits higher," the group noted, to "nearly 10 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2009, driven mainly by bank bailouts under the TARP program."
  Then, after the 2008 crash, the web site pointed out, "federal deficits started decreasing, getting to 4 percent of GDP in FY 2013 and 2.4 percent of GDP " last year.
   It's interesting to note that deficits tend to rise when a Republican occupies the White House, and fall when a Democrat is President. There was a "five-year bulge in deficits" due to tax cuts and a defense buildup during the administration of Republican President Ronald Reagan, usgovspending said, and deficits "consistently declined year on year" when Democrat Bill Clinton was in office, from a deficit of 3.9 percent inherited  from the Reagan Administration to a surplus of 2.3 percent in Clinton's final budget.
   Tax cuts and recession, plus the Iraq war when Republican George W. Bush was President sent deficits up again, to 3.4 percent in FY 2004, followed by the Great Recession when deficits ballooned to 9.8 percent of GDP in the fiscal year ended in the summer of 2009.
   Since then, Democratic President Barack Obama has presided over a decline in deficits to 2.4 percent.
   Is total government spending on the rise? Yes. Is the deficit soaring again, as GOP candidates complain again? Total spending is indeed rising, but as a percent of total output, the deficit is barely moving.
   GDP, by the way, the total value of all goods and services produced in America, is now more than $18 trillion, up from $17.5 trillion a year ago.
   
   Writing about economic policy is not that hard to do. It takes a bit more thought -- perhaps one-tenth of one percent, similar to the forecast rise in the federal deficit this year -- but it can be done, partly by ignoring the invective spewed by some candidates and focusing instead on reality.
   For more detail on the relationship of federal deficits as a percent of total output, visit http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_deficit_percent_gdp.