Fallacies

"It ain't necessarily so." -- from "Porgy and Bess."

   Logic 101 teaches several basic fallacies common to human thinking, one of which is known as the "propter hoc, ergo propter hoc" fallacy. Translated from the Latin, it means, "after this, therefore because of this."
   An example is when people see the sun rise in the east, they assume that the earth stands still and the sun revolves around the earth. It took a while, but science proved that the reality is the other way 'round.
   So it is with politicians, who claim credit when things go well and blame others when they don't. A recent example is the claim by the current resident of the Oval Office that he is responsible for the "all time high" in stock market averages.
   The reality is that "all time high" numbers are a regular occurrence on stock markets and have little to do with politicians' claims. Put another way, Wall Street is less a barometer of national economic performance than it is of investor exuberance, hopes and expectations for corporate sales and profits.
   Just because stock market averages have gone up since the new president took office is not necessarily because of the new guy.
   Meanwhile, this president is claiming that his plan to cut corporate taxes will cause the economy to "take off like a rocket," while economists point out that this is not likely to happen. Put another way, "trickle down economics" does not work.
   On top of that, the Federal Reserve Board has been watching economic performance carefully, and plans to boost interest rates to stabilize the U.S. economy, take some heat out of the growth rate and prevent a "rocketing" takeoff.
   In a very long summary of its most recent meeting -- more than a dozen pages of minutes from the meeting -- the Fed in effect declared its independence from political posturing and stressed its traditional goals of full employment and low inflation, which it endeavors to reach by controlling interest rates.
   This declaration came soon after the president refused to renominate the Board of Governors chair for a second term and instead named one of his own favorites, in the expectation that the new guy will lead the board down the Trumpian path of less control so business and the economy can cruise its own merry way to ...
   Separately, watch for the president to choose several more of his kind to fill vacancies on the Fed Board of Governors, as well as numerous vacancies for federal judgeships around the nation, all as part of his overall plan to move government further to the political right and away from guardianship and oversight of corporate and public behavior.
   Many of these nominations require Senate approval, and that also is something to watch for.
   So the question becomes whether the nation is ready for, or even should, shift its political, social, and economic attitudes further and further toward less and less regulation of how corporations behave in their search for increased profits and higher share prices, with little or no concern for how their corporate goals affect the rest of the nation and its people.