For all the rhetorical noise and talk show banter about what's going to happen to the president, there are two questions at the root of the issue:
-- Will Donald J. Trump be impeached, convicted and removed from office?
-- Can a president be indicted on a criminal charge while in office?
Only two presidents have been impeached, but neither was convicted. The charge against Andrew Johnson was that he fired a Cabinet secretary without consulting Congress. The argument was that since the Senate had approved the nomination, the Senate also had the right to approve his dismissal.
The main charge against Bill Clinton was that he lied to Congress about having an extra-marital affair. Whether that rose to the level of a high crime or misdemeanor was likely the deciding factor in the failure to convict.
The Constitution specifies that a president can be impeached for "treason, bribery or other high crimes and misdemeanors." After that, the president would face trial in the Senate, presided over by the chief justice of the Supreme Court, and if convicted, removed from office.
Richard Nixon was not impeached. He resigned before the articles of impeachment approved by a House committee could be voted on by the full House of Representatives. Subsequently, President Gerald Ford issued a full pardon for any crimes and misdemeanors Nixon may have committed. Therefore, since he was not convicted, we must presume innocence. Moreover, the pardon precluded the possibility that Nixon could face any charges in a criminal court after leaving office.
The impeachment provision in the Constitution specifies that the only penalty for conviction is removal from office, and adds that a president would still be liable for prosecution in a criminal court.
Which brings us to the puzzle of what the current president faces.
No president has been indicted on any criminal charge while in office. Yet.
Can a sitting president be indicted? Or, as chief executive officer, is a president above the law? A counter argument to that is that no one is above the law.
So where is the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller's team going, and what are they looking for?
There has been much speculation reported in the news media as to the possible directions taken by the Mueller team, and whether what the team finds rises to the level of "treason, bribery or other high crimes and misdemeanors" as specified by the Constitution.
But is Mueller conducting a criminal probe, an impeachment probe, or both?
What began as a probe into possible election interference has apparently expanded to include questions about collusion with a foreign power, and other matters.
As is typical with major investigations, it's the phrase, "other matters" that opens the door to the unexpected.
Separately, there is the emoluments clause of the Constitution, which says that no federal office holder can receive any gift or present or any thing of value "of any kind whatever," from any foreign power.
The president could face legal action claiming he has done just that because of his business involvement. In fact, a summons was issued to President Donald Trump March 22 by the attorneys general of Maryland and the District of Columbia alleging that the president is violating that clause because foreign groups choose to stay at Trump-owned properties as a way of gaining favor with the president.
If that is upheld and proven, it could be ruled tantamount to bribery or treason, which are impeachable offenses.
Meanwhile, impeachment is not likely to happen this year, unless the GOP-controlled House of Representatives and the Senate changes its attitude of loyalty to a president who happens to be a Republican.
Even if there is a major turnover in November and Democrats win big, they won't dominate Congress until January. And even then they would need some Republican support for impeachment, trial and removal from office, or even invoking the 25th Amendment provision that allows for removal due to inability to perform the duties of the office. That's harder to prove than impeachment charges.
All this leaves the question of whether the president is likely to be indicted soon -- in the next few months.
Or will the special counsel be fired and his investigative team be disbanded? And if so, will someone else take up the challenge?
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