The American economy stumbled by a total of about 7 points as the year began, largely because the corona virus shut down stores and businesses and people stayed home.
No surprise. Observers saw it coming weeks ago and the stock market this week continued its recent rising. But while financiers may not be upset, the millions of Americans out of work, out sick or in mourning for those who died will take no satisfaction in seeing evidence for what they know is true.
A corona crash is on its way, if not already here.
The government reported the total output of goods and services (GDP) fell from a positive growth rate of 2.1 percent in the final three months of 2019 to an estimated negative 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020. That's a total drop of 6.9 percentage points in just three months.
Will the decline continue, resulting in a formal declaration of an economic recession, if not worse? Probably, yes, according to international experts. That prediction was mentioned in this blog in late March and again on April 15, in a posting totaled "Corona Depression," noting that "the world is facing the largest economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s," citing the Federal Reserve Board and the International Monetary Fund.
Earlier, on March 27 in a posting titled "Global Depression," we wrote that the economy was not about to slowly grind to a halt, but rather to a sudden stop.
Crash.
Technically, an economic recession is defined as two consecutive fiscal quarters of negative growth. We now have one, by the preliminary estimate for the first quarter. Experts see no upturn before autumn.
Now it's time to hear from the president, whose comments have alternated between claiming "total authority" and insisting he has "no responsibility." He also has claimed full credit for the economic recovery and growth that began seven years before he took office.
But now that America approaches an economic crisis that will make the Great Depression of the 1930s seem like a walk in the park, it's time to ask the president this question:
Do you want to fix blame or fix the problem?
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
Monday, April 27, 2020
Prior Approval
Business and political leaders, as well as celebrities of all kinds, have long demanded prior approval of any story before publication or broadcast. Few actually get it, but that has never stopped them from trying.
Attempts to control the news media have been made as long as there have been news media, and government officials, even at the local level, have been fond of saying, "If the press wasn't here, I'd have something to say about that." At a public meeting, however, that doesn't wash, even less so during a live broadcast.
Sadly, the current president of the United States expects journalists to ask only positive questions during press conferences, and attacks reporters who ask what he deems "hostile" questions.
That assumes that journalists are only allowed to ask synpathetic questions, and should produce stories that coincide with the official political stance of the government at that moment.
News flash: Journalists are not on any government payroll, and neither the president nor any of his minions can say "You're fired" to any reporter. Neither do they get prior approval of any question any reporter might ask, nor any printed or broadcast report.
Many politicians expect all others to "get with the program, and be part of the team."
But journalists are not team players. They may practice a form of adversarial journalism, but their questions come from a neutral position. Too many political leaders expect that if someone is not a friend, they must be an enemy.
Reality check: News reporters are neither.
That said, however, there is room in journalism for opinion writers and talk show hosts. They are not always neutral, but all are protected by the Constitutional guarantee of a free press.
As for the president's threat to "take away their license," that's nothing more than ignorance. Newspapers and magazines don't have journalism licenses, so there's nothing to take away. Individual broadcast stations have licenses, but only as a way to assign them to a place on the broadcast spectrum, so to prevent them from colliding with each other. Network and cable TV operations don't have broadcast licenses.
Either way, any threat to prevent news organizations from publishing reports or even asking questions that a president considers "hostile" is a severe hazard to the American way.
Attempts to control the news media have been made as long as there have been news media, and government officials, even at the local level, have been fond of saying, "If the press wasn't here, I'd have something to say about that." At a public meeting, however, that doesn't wash, even less so during a live broadcast.
Sadly, the current president of the United States expects journalists to ask only positive questions during press conferences, and attacks reporters who ask what he deems "hostile" questions.
That assumes that journalists are only allowed to ask synpathetic questions, and should produce stories that coincide with the official political stance of the government at that moment.
News flash: Journalists are not on any government payroll, and neither the president nor any of his minions can say "You're fired" to any reporter. Neither do they get prior approval of any question any reporter might ask, nor any printed or broadcast report.
Many politicians expect all others to "get with the program, and be part of the team."
But journalists are not team players. They may practice a form of adversarial journalism, but their questions come from a neutral position. Too many political leaders expect that if someone is not a friend, they must be an enemy.
Reality check: News reporters are neither.
That said, however, there is room in journalism for opinion writers and talk show hosts. They are not always neutral, but all are protected by the Constitutional guarantee of a free press.
As for the president's threat to "take away their license," that's nothing more than ignorance. Newspapers and magazines don't have journalism licenses, so there's nothing to take away. Individual broadcast stations have licenses, but only as a way to assign them to a place on the broadcast spectrum, so to prevent them from colliding with each other. Network and cable TV operations don't have broadcast licenses.
Either way, any threat to prevent news organizations from publishing reports or even asking questions that a president considers "hostile" is a severe hazard to the American way.
Friday, April 24, 2020
Heat
"If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen." -- Harry Truman
Pressure is building on the president after his "musing" about using disinfectant internally to combat the corona virus. Brainstorming in public on national TV is not smart, but that apparently is what he was doing after hearing that disinfectants can clean up surfaces within minutes, prompting him to wonder aloud and on camera whether it could also be used internally.
The question was interpreted as as a suggestion that people drink Lysol, or some other similar disinfectant as an anti-virus treatment, and instantly went worldwide and was talked about for the rest of the day Thursday and into Friday. As a result, the president took no questions at his Friday news briefing, instead leaving the room after his initial remarks.
Now the issue is whether he will hold another daily news briefing Saturday. If he does, will he take questions? Will he answer them, or attack the questioner?
That has been his practice when he does not like the question. But ignoring the issue or slamming the news media will not make the question go away.
So how long can he last under this rising pressure?
Will he quit?
Pressure is building on the president after his "musing" about using disinfectant internally to combat the corona virus. Brainstorming in public on national TV is not smart, but that apparently is what he was doing after hearing that disinfectants can clean up surfaces within minutes, prompting him to wonder aloud and on camera whether it could also be used internally.
The question was interpreted as as a suggestion that people drink Lysol, or some other similar disinfectant as an anti-virus treatment, and instantly went worldwide and was talked about for the rest of the day Thursday and into Friday. As a result, the president took no questions at his Friday news briefing, instead leaving the room after his initial remarks.
Now the issue is whether he will hold another daily news briefing Saturday. If he does, will he take questions? Will he answer them, or attack the questioner?
That has been his practice when he does not like the question. But ignoring the issue or slamming the news media will not make the question go away.
So how long can he last under this rising pressure?
Will he quit?
Monday, April 20, 2020
Independent Journalism
Do you want to fix blame, or fix the problem? -- Pug Mahoney
That's a stupid question.-- Politician
There are no stupid questions; there are only stupid answers. -- News Editor
In less than four months, 40,000 Americans have died from the corona virus. That's an average of more than 10,000 each month, since the disease first struck in Seattle in late January.
It has ignored all borders, whether social, geographical, political, ethnic or racial.
Yet political opponents argue over whether and when to reopen business lanes so people can travel to wherever they like, thus carrying the virus with them and spreading it to others, even if they show no symptoms themselves.
"It's not in my town, so why should I worry?" many say. "Besides, the fake news media carries this phony story just to frighten us into voting for some new guy."
As if there is mass coordination of news coverage among the thousands of newspapers, magazines, broadcast networks and online journalism outlets, with a single leader dictating how a story is to be covered. As if every local, state and federal health and medical agency all get together to use the same made-up number to describe a crisis that political leaders claim does not exist.
As if they all lie, except for that one political leader insists he knows from his instinct what the real truth is.
Instinct versus reality.
So who will you believe, plain numbers from impartial observers or from a politician obsessed with his need for agreement from everyone, regardless of reality?
The current occupant of the Oval Office resorts to insult and mockery of reporters who ask questions that he doesn't like. But that doesn't make any question go away. It only shows that the government leader expects journalists to be part of his team.
They're not, and in a free society they never will be.
Even if he issues an executive order suspending or canceling the First Amendment to the Constitution.
That's a stupid question.-- Politician
There are no stupid questions; there are only stupid answers. -- News Editor
In less than four months, 40,000 Americans have died from the corona virus. That's an average of more than 10,000 each month, since the disease first struck in Seattle in late January.
It has ignored all borders, whether social, geographical, political, ethnic or racial.
Yet political opponents argue over whether and when to reopen business lanes so people can travel to wherever they like, thus carrying the virus with them and spreading it to others, even if they show no symptoms themselves.
"It's not in my town, so why should I worry?" many say. "Besides, the fake news media carries this phony story just to frighten us into voting for some new guy."
As if there is mass coordination of news coverage among the thousands of newspapers, magazines, broadcast networks and online journalism outlets, with a single leader dictating how a story is to be covered. As if every local, state and federal health and medical agency all get together to use the same made-up number to describe a crisis that political leaders claim does not exist.
As if they all lie, except for that one political leader insists he knows from his instinct what the real truth is.
Instinct versus reality.
So who will you believe, plain numbers from impartial observers or from a politician obsessed with his need for agreement from everyone, regardless of reality?
The current occupant of the Oval Office resorts to insult and mockery of reporters who ask questions that he doesn't like. But that doesn't make any question go away. It only shows that the government leader expects journalists to be part of his team.
They're not, and in a free society they never will be.
Even if he issues an executive order suspending or canceling the First Amendment to the Constitution.
Sunday, April 19, 2020
The Druid Speaks
Just published "The Druid Speaks," a collection of all previously published short novels featuring detective turned journalist Jack McHarg, plus a concluding new story that provides the title for the book.
Available now worldwide for paperback versions or for ebook.
Available now worldwide for paperback versions or for ebook.
Saturday, April 18, 2020
Trump and the Media
Here's a very important, if long, analysis of the relationship the prez has (not) with the news media, posted by the Committee to Protect Journalists.
Here's a link
https://cpj.org/reports/2020/04/trump-media-attacks-credibility-leaks.php
The Trump Administration and the Media - Committee to Protect Journalists
Here's a link
The Trump Administration and the Media - Committee to Protect Journalists
Wednesday, April 15, 2020
Taking Charge
The president today threatened to adjourn Congress, enabling him to make interim appointments of key officials to high government posts that would normally require the advice and consent of the Senate.
He made the announcement in his opening remarks at his daily briefing that allegedly are about the status of the corona virus emergency.
It is constitutionally possible for him to adjourn Congress. The founding document states that the president "may, on extraordinary occasions" adjourn Congress "to such time as he shall think proper."
This would give him "total authority" over what the federal government does, when and how it does it, causing an even greater conflict than that avoided recently when he claimed he could decide when states could reopen after closing down because of the pandemic.
Congress normally does not take any formal adjournments, especially the Senate, for the very reason that this would block any interim appointments that a president might make.
But if the current president cites current events as an "extraordinary occasion," this would enable him to send Congress home while he appoints his favorite allies to key government posts.
Technically, the Senate does not take a full, formal adjournment; instead, a single senator is delegated to call the Senate to order every day, but since no others are present, the session is delayed for another day. This can go on for weeks as the delegates go home for holiday gatherings.
The current pandemic is indeed an "extraordinary occasion," but national needs are more than enough reason for Congress to stay in session and provide additional funding to help Americans survive the crisis and the economic disaster the pandemic has caused.
He made the announcement in his opening remarks at his daily briefing that allegedly are about the status of the corona virus emergency.
It is constitutionally possible for him to adjourn Congress. The founding document states that the president "may, on extraordinary occasions" adjourn Congress "to such time as he shall think proper."
This would give him "total authority" over what the federal government does, when and how it does it, causing an even greater conflict than that avoided recently when he claimed he could decide when states could reopen after closing down because of the pandemic.
Congress normally does not take any formal adjournments, especially the Senate, for the very reason that this would block any interim appointments that a president might make.
But if the current president cites current events as an "extraordinary occasion," this would enable him to send Congress home while he appoints his favorite allies to key government posts.
Technically, the Senate does not take a full, formal adjournment; instead, a single senator is delegated to call the Senate to order every day, but since no others are present, the session is delayed for another day. This can go on for weeks as the delegates go home for holiday gatherings.
The current pandemic is indeed an "extraordinary occasion," but national needs are more than enough reason for Congress to stay in session and provide additional funding to help Americans survive the crisis and the economic disaster the pandemic has caused.
Corona Depression
"He's got the pharaoh syndrome -- king of denial."
-- Pug Mahoney
The world is facing the sharpest economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s, as the corona virus slams the doors of business and industry. But the current president wants to reopen the doors so people can return to work, despite the proven risk to their lives.
The numbers are staggering. Since January, when the first infection was reported in the Seattle area, more than 27,000 Americans have died from this disease, and the only known way to slow the spread is for people to keep a distance from others. Worldwide, there have been more than 128,000 deaths.
The corporate bottom line, however, seems to be more important to White friends and advisors, and the president denies any responsibility to help the separate states cope with the disease.
Instead, he insists that he alone has "total authority" over state shut-down orders.
Note from Pug Mahoney, the resident cynic: You can't have it both ways. The U.S. Constitution stipulates that the federal government does not control everything.
"The powers not delegated (to the federal government) ... are reserved to the states," says the last and politically most important of the first Ten Amendments.
The president's claim of "total authority" was overthrown within hours as governors and legal experts joined the chorus.
Now, as businesses shut down and people lose their jobs, the president endorses corporate efforts to regain profits by reopening the nation for business. In effect, this is like an executive order canceling the disease and ordering the invading virus to leave the country.
But just as the president has no authority to dictate to the states, he has no jurisdiction over viral diseases, so the current economic downturn will become known as the corona depression of 2020.
Major economic research organizations agree. The Federal Reserve Board said that "Economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions in the United States as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic." Moreover, the outlook is "highly uncertain," and conditions are expected to worsen in the next several months.
The International Monetary Fund was even more specific. "This is a crisis like no other," said IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva. "We expect the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression," she wrote, adding that the IMF projects global growth to fall by minus 3 percent this year, with only a partial recovery in 2021.
-- Pug Mahoney
The world is facing the sharpest economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s, as the corona virus slams the doors of business and industry. But the current president wants to reopen the doors so people can return to work, despite the proven risk to their lives.
The numbers are staggering. Since January, when the first infection was reported in the Seattle area, more than 27,000 Americans have died from this disease, and the only known way to slow the spread is for people to keep a distance from others. Worldwide, there have been more than 128,000 deaths.
The corporate bottom line, however, seems to be more important to White friends and advisors, and the president denies any responsibility to help the separate states cope with the disease.
Instead, he insists that he alone has "total authority" over state shut-down orders.
Note from Pug Mahoney, the resident cynic: You can't have it both ways. The U.S. Constitution stipulates that the federal government does not control everything.
"The powers not delegated (to the federal government) ... are reserved to the states," says the last and politically most important of the first Ten Amendments.
The president's claim of "total authority" was overthrown within hours as governors and legal experts joined the chorus.
Now, as businesses shut down and people lose their jobs, the president endorses corporate efforts to regain profits by reopening the nation for business. In effect, this is like an executive order canceling the disease and ordering the invading virus to leave the country.
But just as the president has no authority to dictate to the states, he has no jurisdiction over viral diseases, so the current economic downturn will become known as the corona depression of 2020.
Major economic research organizations agree. The Federal Reserve Board said that "Economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions in the United States as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic." Moreover, the outlook is "highly uncertain," and conditions are expected to worsen in the next several months.
The International Monetary Fund was even more specific. "This is a crisis like no other," said IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva. "We expect the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression," she wrote, adding that the IMF projects global growth to fall by minus 3 percent this year, with only a partial recovery in 2021.
Tuesday, April 14, 2020
Loser in Chief
"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the People." -- U.S. Constitution, Tenth Amendment, ratified in December 1791.
The president is losing the support of two key backers in the news media -- Fox News and the Wall Street Journal. And the long term result may well be that he will be voted out of office later this year.
The president's claim of absolute authority was immediately challenged by many in the news media, including Fox News Channel's senior judicial analyst Andrew Napolitano, who cited the Tenth Amendment and noted that parts of the economy were shut down by governors of the several states, and "it is the governors who will make the decision to open it up."
Separately, the president tweeted that governors who did not follow his instructions were guilty of "mutiny."
The president claims his "authority is total. And the governors know that." This comment was made on Monday when he said he would decide when and how the states would reopen after shutting down because of the corona virus. But he did not order the closures, and in fact would not have the authority to do so. The federal government does not regulate school systems, nor motor vehicle licensing, nor liquor sales, nor commerce within each state, nor many other activities, and therefore can neither shut them down nor call for reopening.
There are, or course, many interstate activities that the federal government can control, but these are only those activities that cross state lines. Moreover, the Constitution specifies that any powers not specifically delegated to the federal government are reserved to the individual states.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo replied that he would not engage in a fight with the president, but would simply ignore orders that were unconstitutional.
Last week, The Wall Street Journal criticized the president for using his daily press briefings to praise his own actions rather than deal with the crisis brought on by the corona virus. Specifically, the WSJ editorial board criticized the president's apparent attitude that because TV ratings of the daily briefings were so high, it was because of him, not because of public concern for the health crisis.
In response, the president attacked the Wall Street Journal as "fake news."
In addition, TV news channels are limiting their coverage of the news briefings because of the president's propensity to turn them into re-election campaign sessions.
They continue to monitor the sessions, but when they get "too political," as Chuck Todd of MSNBC put it, they turn away, and return to report whatever newsworthy information comes out.
Similarly, CNN is following a similar pattern, covering the sessions but not broadcasting them in full every day. One reason may well be that the sessions are held in prime news time, about 5 p.m. Eastern time, and drag on for two hours.
The president is losing the support of two key backers in the news media -- Fox News and the Wall Street Journal. And the long term result may well be that he will be voted out of office later this year.
The president's claim of absolute authority was immediately challenged by many in the news media, including Fox News Channel's senior judicial analyst Andrew Napolitano, who cited the Tenth Amendment and noted that parts of the economy were shut down by governors of the several states, and "it is the governors who will make the decision to open it up."
Separately, the president tweeted that governors who did not follow his instructions were guilty of "mutiny."
The president claims his "authority is total. And the governors know that." This comment was made on Monday when he said he would decide when and how the states would reopen after shutting down because of the corona virus. But he did not order the closures, and in fact would not have the authority to do so. The federal government does not regulate school systems, nor motor vehicle licensing, nor liquor sales, nor commerce within each state, nor many other activities, and therefore can neither shut them down nor call for reopening.
There are, or course, many interstate activities that the federal government can control, but these are only those activities that cross state lines. Moreover, the Constitution specifies that any powers not specifically delegated to the federal government are reserved to the individual states.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo replied that he would not engage in a fight with the president, but would simply ignore orders that were unconstitutional.
Last week, The Wall Street Journal criticized the president for using his daily press briefings to praise his own actions rather than deal with the crisis brought on by the corona virus. Specifically, the WSJ editorial board criticized the president's apparent attitude that because TV ratings of the daily briefings were so high, it was because of him, not because of public concern for the health crisis.
In response, the president attacked the Wall Street Journal as "fake news."
In addition, TV news channels are limiting their coverage of the news briefings because of the president's propensity to turn them into re-election campaign sessions.
They continue to monitor the sessions, but when they get "too political," as Chuck Todd of MSNBC put it, they turn away, and return to report whatever newsworthy information comes out.
Similarly, CNN is following a similar pattern, covering the sessions but not broadcasting them in full every day. One reason may well be that the sessions are held in prime news time, about 5 p.m. Eastern time, and drag on for two hours.
Total Authority?
The president claimed his authority is total in deciding when and how to reopen the individual states for business as the corona virus sweeps across the country taking thousands of lives.
That implies that the nation has a single, all-powerful ruler making decisions that affect all the individual states. It's useful here to remember that the term "monarch" has two elements: "mon-" meaning one, and "-arch" meaning ruler.
America declared its independence from a single ruler 244 years ago, with a declaration that the country is made up of several "free and independent states."
Moreover, the Constitution says that any powers not specifically given to the federal government remain with the separate and individual states.
The president's pronouncement of his total authority immediately brought virulent protests from governors and from major media outlets challenging that claim, with several political leaders warning of a constitutional crisis if the president tries to carry that attitude forward.
Meanwhile, major television outlets are limiting their coverage of the president's almost daily prime time "news briefings," pointing out that his comments amount to re-election campaign efforts.
The most egregious example occurred on Monday, when he displayed a selectively edited collection of video clips showing government officials praising his efforts.
In addition, he regularly attacks any reporter who asks a question that he doesn't like. He demands that journalists ask only "positive" questions, as if news media people are part of his team.
Note this well: Journalism is called the Fourth Estate for good reason. We are not part of any political, clerical or business team. Reporters ask tough questions because they need to be asked, and they ask them on behalf of all the people.
Reporters' opinions are not relevant to what they do. They leave opinions to the editorial page writers.
That implies that the nation has a single, all-powerful ruler making decisions that affect all the individual states. It's useful here to remember that the term "monarch" has two elements: "mon-" meaning one, and "-arch" meaning ruler.
America declared its independence from a single ruler 244 years ago, with a declaration that the country is made up of several "free and independent states."
Moreover, the Constitution says that any powers not specifically given to the federal government remain with the separate and individual states.
The president's pronouncement of his total authority immediately brought virulent protests from governors and from major media outlets challenging that claim, with several political leaders warning of a constitutional crisis if the president tries to carry that attitude forward.
Meanwhile, major television outlets are limiting their coverage of the president's almost daily prime time "news briefings," pointing out that his comments amount to re-election campaign efforts.
The most egregious example occurred on Monday, when he displayed a selectively edited collection of video clips showing government officials praising his efforts.
In addition, he regularly attacks any reporter who asks a question that he doesn't like. He demands that journalists ask only "positive" questions, as if news media people are part of his team.
Note this well: Journalism is called the Fourth Estate for good reason. We are not part of any political, clerical or business team. Reporters ask tough questions because they need to be asked, and they ask them on behalf of all the people.
Reporters' opinions are not relevant to what they do. They leave opinions to the editorial page writers.
Tuesday, April 7, 2020
Civil Crisis
Those who do not learn from a crisis are condemned to repeat it.
Your civil rights end where my nose begins.
Don't fix blame. Fix the problem
In 1918, the influenza epidemic killed 20,000 people in the city of Philadelphia alone.
In 2020, the corona virus has killed more than 10,000 people across America in just three months. And the toll keeps rising, especially in densely populated regions.
Yet there are many who insist that government efforts to reduce the toll by calling for people not to be close to each other is a violation of their Constitutional right "peacefully to assemble."
It would be easy to say to them, "Fine. If you want to kill each other, go right ahead. But don't bring me into your sick group."
Except that there are laws against killing. Both political and Biblical.
Thou shalt not kill.
Stay home.
Your civil rights end where my nose begins.
Don't fix blame. Fix the problem
In 1918, the influenza epidemic killed 20,000 people in the city of Philadelphia alone.
In 2020, the corona virus has killed more than 10,000 people across America in just three months. And the toll keeps rising, especially in densely populated regions.
Yet there are many who insist that government efforts to reduce the toll by calling for people not to be close to each other is a violation of their Constitutional right "peacefully to assemble."
It would be easy to say to them, "Fine. If you want to kill each other, go right ahead. But don't bring me into your sick group."
Except that there are laws against killing. Both political and Biblical.
Thou shalt not kill.
Stay home.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)