Stumble Down Economics

   The American economy stumbled by a total of about 7 points as the year began, largely because the corona virus shut down stores and businesses and people stayed home.
   No surprise. Observers saw it coming weeks ago and the stock market this week continued its recent rising. But while financiers may not be upset, the millions of Americans out of work, out sick or in mourning for those who died will take no satisfaction in seeing evidence for what they know is true.
   A corona crash is on its way, if not already here.
   The government reported the total output of goods and services (GDP) fell from a positive growth rate of 2.1 percent in the final three months of 2019 to an estimated negative 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020. That's a total drop of 6.9 percentage points in just three months.
   Will the decline continue, resulting in a formal declaration of an economic recession, if not worse? Probably, yes, according to international experts. That prediction was mentioned in this blog in late March and again on April 15, in a posting totaled "Corona Depression," noting that "the world is facing the largest economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s," citing the Federal Reserve Board and the International Monetary Fund.
   Earlier, on March 27 in a posting titled "Global Depression," we wrote that the economy was not about to slowly grind to a halt, but rather to a sudden stop.
   Crash.
   Technically, an economic recession is defined as two consecutive fiscal quarters of negative growth. We now have one, by the preliminary estimate for the first quarter. Experts see no upturn before autumn.
   Now it's time to hear from the president, whose comments have alternated between claiming "total authority" and insisting he has "no responsibility." He also has claimed full credit for the economic recovery and growth that began seven years before he took office.
   But now that America approaches an economic crisis that will make the Great Depression of the 1930s seem like a walk in the park, it's time to ask the president this question:
   Do you want to fix blame or fix the problem?