Flag on the Overplay

   Some opinionators are slamming Team Romney so much you'd think the election is already over.
   Confidence is good, and uncovering political balderdash is also good. But when the editorial raving against Romney & Co. rises to screed level, we worry about a backlash.
   Resident philosopher Pug Mahoney warns that the barrage of invective, while based on fact as opposed to candidate propaganda, may only reinforce the Radical Right's claim of a "liberal media conspiracy" against their side.
   Overconfidence can be dangerous, and belief can trump fact.

   Remember the 1948 banner headline in the Chicago Tribune: "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN," it read, expressing the confidence of the editors in the results of the poll they sponsored on Election Day. The survey showed overwhelming support for the Republican candidate, Thomas E. Dewey, among those polled.
   The flaw in the survey, however, was that it was taken by telephone, and at the time, most households with telephones were those of upper-income, upper middle class families, who tended to vote Republican. Working class voters were less likely to have telephones in 1948, and more likely to vote Democratic.
   Result: A skewed survey.
   Since then, however, survey methods became more sophisticated and reliable, and the number of American households with telephone service soared to well above 90 percent. (Mobile phones are another matter; they didn't exist in 1948.) And surveys are still done mostly to landline phones.

   Recent polls show a relatively narrow gap between President Barack Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney, and many voters -- independent, undecided and unaffiliated -- may resent what they perceive as "vicious attacks."
   That perception may or may not be justified, but keep in mind that perception can easily become reality.

   Also keep in mind the Amerindian adage, "He who hunts the wolverine soon becomes the hunted."