Goldilocks Economics

Not too hot, not too cold. GDP growth rate is just right.

   The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the U.S. economy will grow at an average rate of about 2 percent yearly over the next 10 years, roughly the same rate as in 2015.
   The unemployment rate also will fall slightly from its current 4.8 percent to 4.5 percent next year, then stabilize at about 4.9 percent until 2026.
   The rate of inflation (rising prices) will go from 1.5 percent this year to the Federal Reserve's goal of 2 percent next year, then stay at about that level through 2026.
   Finally, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes -- a key indicator -- will increase from its current level of 1.8 percent to 2.5 percent next year, continuing to rise and average 3.6 percent over the five year period of 2021 to 2026.
   However, like most two-handed economists, there are uncertainties. The CBO admitted unforeseen changes may make the forecast too pessimistic, or these same unforeseen changes may make the forecast too optimistic.
   The agency acknowledged that a stall in the Chinese economy or increased uncertainty over Britain's departure from the European Union would be problematic for U.S. growth.
   Overall, however, the current expansion in America has lasted seven years, longer than average. All things considered, the U.S. growth rate is likely to range from 0.7 percent yearly to 3.2 percent yearly over the next five years.