What's Going On?

   Official economic data from the U.S. Commerce Department show a growth rate of about 1 percent in the second quarter, but estimates from Federal Reserve branches see a third quarter rate of more than 3 percent.
   What's going on? Are we really in for that big a jump in the output of goods and services in America?
   In the first three months of 2016, the GDP growth rate was just 0.8 percent, and the second quarter rate was 1.1 percent, said the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Commerce Department agency that compiles and publishes the "official" report.
   The New York Fed, for example, set a growth estimate of 2.8 percent for the third quarter, fading to 1.7 percent in the final three months of the year. In Atlanta, the Fed branch there estimates a 3.3 percent growth in GDP for the third quarter.
   A survey of senior executives showed that many of them see a flat pattern, despite the official data showing a slight increase.
   Estimates of economic growth come out regularly, from many sources. So which has the highest believability quotient? That's a factor that may well be a topic for a graduate research paper.
   And how important statistical data are depends partly on what political candidates make of them, and how much confidence voters put in them.
   Readers can choose which "them" to listen to -- the candidates, the economists, or the numbers.