Data Drivel

"Figures don't lie, but liars do figure." -- Mark Twain

   Donald Trump complained that the "true" unemployment rate in America is not just 4.9 percent, as the government claims, but could be as high as 42 percent.
   Perhaps that would be true if you include among the unemployed all the students, all retirees, all those who are disabled and unable to work, everyone who is hospitalized, and all housewives who choose to stay home, as well as all the mothers and fathers who stay home to care for their children. Plus those who are in prison or in the military. They are, by definition, not in the civilian work force.
   As it is, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics counts only those who are 16 and older, who are available for full-time work, want to work and are actively looking for work. The monthly survey does not include those who have stopped looking and those who are working part-time. Under those criteria, the BLS survey yields an unemployment rate of 4.9 percent.
   Expand the definition, however, to include discouraged workers -- those who have temporarily given up looking for work -- and you'll get a higher number. Add part-time workers, and you'll get a number that's still higher.
   In fact, the BLS does publish six different sets of jobless rates dealing with these various definitions, but the one that gets the most publicity is the one that focuses on those out of work, ready to work, and actively seeking full-time work. Currently, the number is 4.9 percent.
  And there are other ways to get higher numbers. If you divide the total American number of workers by the total population, you get a figure of almost 60 percent. And that means the other 40 percent are unemployed. But that calculation of workers counts only those people 16 and older. Plug in the number of children in America who are not working, and you'll find that more than half of all Americans are unemployed.
   So yes, the leading GOP presidential candidate is correct, in a sense, when he warns that the American unemployment rate is higher that the featured number. Doing so implies that the government lies, not an unusual strategy for politicians to use.
   But take a closer look at the data and check on which set of numbers the opposition chooses to talk about, and you have to decide who is, in fact, speaking truth, half-truth or innuendo. Or is flat-out lying.