The Big Gamble

Be careful what you wish for.

   The sudden death of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia signifies a tragedy greater than the passing of a prominent jurist.
   The same-day politicization of any choice to succeed him -- within an hour of the announcement of his passing and days before a funeral -- defies any sense of decorum and damages constitutional principles as well as tradition, responsibility and history.
   In their insistence that President Barack Obama ignore his obligation and responsibility to name a successor, Republicans claim there is an 80-year tradition of not nominating a SCOTUS justice during an election year.
   Not true. Justice Anthony Kennedy was nominated by President Ronald Reagan and confirmed by the Senate in 1988 -- a presidential election year -- after Reagan's ill-fated choice of Robert Bork.
   But this is different, you say. Well, yes. Reagan was a Republican, and his successor was his vice president, George H.W. Bush.
   Moreover, fact-checkers pointed out that Supreme Court justices have been nominated and confirmed during election years six times since 1900.
   Even so, GOP leaders and presidential candidates continue to insist that they will block any nominee Obama chooses because they say he should wait until the voice of the people be heard on Election Day as to what kind of person they want in one of the three key branches of government.
   But, some say, voters have already done that -- twice -- by electing President Obama, a Democrat.
   Nevertheless, Republicans base their call for delay, delay, delay on the premise that the next President will be a conservative from the right wing of the Republican Party.
   But what if they lose that gamble?
   What if the GOP succeeds in delaying a SCOTUS replacement until after Inauguration Day on January 20 of next year, leaving the nation's highest court with an empty chair for nearly a full year, if not more?
   For starters, that leaves the court one jurist shy of its constitutionally set nine-member quota, and likely will cause a 4-4 split on some major cases in the meantime.
   An evenly divided court means no decision at all, and the lower court ruling stands.
   But here's the real danger for the GOP's big gamble:
   What if they succeed in blocking Obama's choice and a Democrat wins in November? They then face the charge of needlessly crippling the Supreme Court for at least 11 months until Inauguration Day, plus however much more time while the new President selects a nominee and the Senate goes to its advise and consent mode.
   Count two of the delay allegation is that Republicans vainly tried to humble an outgoing President, and caused yet another nomination fight over a sorely needed member of the Supreme Court.
   For now, Republicans insist that the choice be delayed until after the voters are heard on Election Day.
   Be careful what you wish for.