Luckonomics

Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times or more is a pattern.

   Presidents claim credit when the national economy does well on their watch, and blame their predecessor when it doesn't. The question, then, is whether the person in the White House really has any direct influence on the economy, or whether it's a matter of luck.
   Since the end of the Great Depression, America has shown economic recovery and growth while a Democrat occupied the White House, and a slowdown during a Republican's tenure.
   So is that an accident, a coincidence, or a blame-worthy pattern?
   As noted in this column last September, in the 67 years between the end of the Civil War and the beginning of the Great Depression, 15 men served as President, all but three of them Republicans. In that time, there were four economic crises or recessions, three of which began during a Republican presidency.
   The Great Depression began its chaotic slide in October 1929, when Republican Herbert Hoover was President, and did not fully recover until World War 2 began. Since then, there have been variations in the cycle, including downturns in the Eisenhower years, the Nixon years, and the Reagan-Bush years, as Republicans pushed their conservative agenda of limited government. Oddly, this led to higher budget deficits.
   Democrat Bill Clinton (1993-2001) not only steadily reduced federal budget deficits but posted four years with budget surplus. Then, under his successor, Republican George W. Bush, the surplus disappeared, the deficit soared to a record $1.4 trillion and the nation stumbled into the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
   In the seven years since Democrat Barack Obama took office, the deficit has been steadily trimmed and the overall economy has steadily, albeit slowly, recovered.
   Now, according to an analysis released this week by the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. economy "is, overall, in good shape," with a total of 2.4 million new jobs created over the past year. The unemployment rate has dropped to 4.7 percent, "its lowest level since the eve of the Great Recession," the IMF said. Inflation "remains contained, and the U.S. economy has repeatedly demonstrated its resilience" in the face of several negative influences including market volatility and international unsteadiness.
   In the current presidential campaign, voters face the choice of a Democrat, Hillary Clinton, or the leading Republican, Donald Trump.
   News media daily supply details of the speeches, promises, experiences and past performance records of each. Whether one set of promises outweighs the other is for voters to decide come Election Day in November. Meanwhile, it's important to pay some attention to the plans and proposals touted by each of the candidates, and to decide whether these ideas are solid and potentially productive, or empty and likely to lead to another recession.
   We can only weigh their words against past performance records, not only their individual records, but the overall history of the philosophies that guide their political parties and organizations.
   Be careful what you wish for. You may get it.