Friday, June 24, 2016

Rational Choices and Heroic Assumptions

Emotions are not rational. If they were, they wouldn't be emotions.

   A fallacy in the teaching of Economics 101 is that people make rational choices in how they use the resources available to them.
   This assumes that people are rational and behave in a rational manner. 
   A heroic assumption, at best. Sometimes, some people do indeed behave rationally. But not everyone does, all the time.
   Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, warned of "irrational exuberance" among stock market investors. Equally, there can be irrational pessimism in the face of events like the British vote to leave the European Union.
   On a larger scale, there is the behavior of extremists toward those of different religions, ethnicity, race or social standing. This, too, can be irrational. Extremists build walls of various kinds to reassure themselves of their self-perceived superiority.
   In contrast, there is the philosophy nurtured in the Age of Reason, which led the American founders to declare that all are created equal. But to extremists, some are more equal than others, as George Orwell put it in his novel, "Animal Farm."
   And despite the clear phrasing in the core documents of the American republic, echoing basic principles of many spiritual paths around the world, there remain in many countries that profess to be democratic the idea that one group is somehow superior to others.
   All these factors may underlie the referendum result calling for the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to leave the European Union. Polls suggest that the Brexit vote was supported largely by xenophobic, less educated workers who feared a loss of their status as a somehow superior group destined to continue the tradition of "Rule Britannia." Citizens of other European nations didn't necessarily agree with that idea.
   Nor did the Scots and the Irish, and so voters in those regions rejected the idea of leaving the EU.
   Nonetheless, voters throughout the United Kingdom, which comprises England, Scotland, Wales, Cornwall and part of Ireland, most likely led by a big turnout of English workers, approved a plan to leave. The margin was 52 percent to 48 percent.
   Here are some consequences of the split:
   -- Scotland may hasten efforts to leave the joined kingdoms and declare full independence.  
  -- Other European nations may also decide to leave the EU.
  -- Even Northern Ireland, once dominated by Protestants who feared the idea of being connected to the largely Catholic Republic of Ireland, may decide it's no longer in their economic best interest to maintain close political ties to England. This would be especially true if Scotland acts to secede,

   Realistically, the British Empire is no more. The Commonwealth remains as an agreement to maintain easier international trade and cultural ties, but members of the Commonwealth are basically independent nations.
   Winston Churchill, the archetypal Brit, spoke of a United States of Europe, but he did not necessarily mean that the British Isles would be included. Instead, he meant if for nations on the Continent. Indeed, the early moves toward a union of European nations were focused on the coal resources of the Ruhr region, which Germany and France had fought over repeatedly.
   
   Britain lost its position as leader of the free world when its empire broke up after World War II. Unfortunately, many in that island believe they still are the most important people in the world. However, that attitude is widespread in other nations also.
  
   So was the vote to leave the European Union rational? Many of the English, especially the less educated, lower income voters afflicted with xenophobia, said yes to Brexit. Others, including economists, bankers, corporate leaders and those of higher income and more education, as well as citizens of Scotland and Northern Ireland, voted to remain.
   It has been said that the principles of Economics 101 are "just common sense." To some, however, that's not common sense. To them, common sense is a form of us versus them.

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