Those who look for economic improvement in small signals will take some comfort in the news that personal income and spending both edged up in September, by three-tenths of a percent, according to the Department of Commerce. Inflation, meanwhile, as measured by the agency's price index, edged up at about the same rate -- two-tenths of a percent in September, or 1.2 percent from a year ago.
The unemployment rate has been holding steady, hovering at 5 percent or a trifle lower, and more people are working.
So is this good news for voters, or not? That partly depends on where you live, with workers in some parts of the nation doing OK, while in other regions not so good.
All of which makes for a difficult decision time at the nation's central bank, which is charged with trying to keep the overall economy on a relatively healthy growth path. That is to say, increasing output, full employment and low inflation. The Federal Reserve Board does this by adjusting the money supply, thus preventing an unsatisfactory leap in prices and encouraging a low unemployment rate.
So far, the strategy has been moderately successful, but if the Fed intervenes too soon or by too much, whatever growth rate the country has could be tripped up, sending the nation into an economic recession.
Therein lies the rub, especially just before a presidential election. Whether the Fed acts this week is an open question, but the smart money says no, for two reasons: The economic signals aren't strong enough, and it's too close to Election Day to avoid allegations of interfering in politics.
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