Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Walling Out Progress

   No retailer would close the shop doors and do business only with family members. Yet that's what nativist protectionism does on a national level.
   The better answer to an economic slowdown is not to build walls and stop buying from others in the hope that you will be the only seller and thus the more prosperous, but to encourage buying and selling on all sides.
   Simply put, when tariff walls are built, other nations do the same, compounding the problem for everyone. Or, as the International Monetary Fund noted, "Economic stagnation could fuel protectionist calls."
   In advanced economies, the IMF said, persistent stagnation can lead to more anti-trade sentiment, further stifling growth. As things stand now, economic growth worldwide is stalled -- "subpar at 3.1 percent in 2016, with a slight increase to 3.4 percent next year," the IMF said.
   Therefore, said the IMF's chief economist Maurice Obstfeld, "The world economy has moved sideways," and this stagnation, he added, "could further fuel populist calls for restrictions on trade and immigration."
   Experts have warned that closing doors on international trade and sharply restricting immigration would be similar to actions taken in the early 1930s, which worsened the Great Depression and did little to help many American workers.
   The IMF reduced its forecast for U.S. economic growth this year to 1.6 percent, from its 2.2 percent forecast in July. And the agency urged the Federal Reserve to continue its watchful eye on economic data, and its monetary policy rate "should be gradual, and tied to clear signs" that the U.S. economy is firming its growth rate.
   Output of goods and services in America grew at an annualized rate of 1.4 percent in the second quarter, up from 0.8 percent in the first three months of the year.
   On a political level, it's time to reconsider the call to cancel international trade agreements as a way to bring manufacturing jobs back to America.
   Reality check: High pay, low skill manufacturing jobs left more than half a century ago, and they're not coming back. America is now a nation of technology-related jobs employing highly skilled workers at high pay, buying stuff and providing jobs for other workers in other countries.
   Meanwhile, service-related jobs in America are expanding. Overall, America has added some 16 million jobs since the end of the Great Recession, and unless the doors close, both sides will prosper.

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