Friday, December 8, 2017

Economic Leveling

   Expect the Federal Reserve Board to carry out its intent to stabilize the U.S. economy as fresh data came in showing continuing health in the jobs market.
   The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the nationwide unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent in November even as employers hired 228,000 more workers in the month. In addition, average earnings rose again, for a 2.5 percent increase from a year ago.
   The jobless rate is the lowest in 17 years, and this level is what experts call full employment. Moreover, employers have hired more people every month for seven years.
   And despite the president's bid to cut taxes and thus ignite a "rocket" economic takeoff, the independent Federal Reserve has repeatedly hinted it will boost interest rates to prevent just that. The danger of a too-rapid growth rate, experts say, is that it's too likely to result in a sudden, rapid decline. That's just what the Fed wants to prevent.
   The president has been claiming credit for the healthy economy, even though he has been in office for less than a year, and economic growth has been steadily upward for some eight years.
   The tax cut promise relies on the theory that increased corporate profit will trickle down to workers through more hiring and increased wages. Conservative politicians tout this promise regularly, but economist note that in reality, it does not work.
   The national jobless rate of 4.1 percent is a good sign, of course, but unemployment figures are based on a monthly telephone survey and, while useful as a monthly snapshot, it is not as accurate as the payroll employment figure, which is based on hard data of the numbers of people actually employed.
   In addition, the jobless figures vary widely by age, gender, region and race. For example, the latest figures show that the unemployment rate for black workers, at 7.3 percent, is double that for white workers, which is 3.6 percent.
   In regions like coal-mining towns, the unemployment rate is far higher. And the overall figure can jump considerably in June and July, when students finish school and enter the work force.
   Overall, however, the nationwide figure is considered to be a reasonably good barometer of employment health.

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