Monday, July 11, 2016

Trickle Doom

   Trickle down economics, so popular among conservatives, is based on the heroic assumption that the wealthy who gain extra cash from tax cuts will increase their spending, and the benefits will then trickle down through the rest of the economy, and everybody wins.
   Eventually. In the long run. Probably. Perhaps. After a time. Maybe.
   As if a trickle to the already wealthy swiftly becomes a flood of prosperity for all.

   But what if, as is equally likely, the wealthy beneficiaries don't spend the extra cash, but instead park it in offshore accounts, where interest rates are higher and tax levels are even lower? That extra money doesn't go to the American economy at all, but emigrates and pumps more cash into other economies.
   Or perhaps a wealthy household buys some expensive art work to display on their penthouse wall. Budding artists don't benefit from that sale if the painting is from the 19th Century.
   The trickle down theory would work if the wealthy beneficiaries of sharp tax cuts spend more on a new car, for example, which would mean employees of dealerships would benefit, and assembly line workers would gain from increased production. Eventually. In the long run. Probably. 
  Unless the new car purchase is for a Rolls-Royce, for example, in which case the money goes to an overseas manufacturer.
   A more likely scenario, however, is that wealthy households simply park the tax cut bonus and not spend it, since many of their needs are already satisfied, even in families noted for conspicuous consumption.
   Or perhaps the main result is that prices in general go up,  to absorb the amount of money available.
   But since the primary beneficiaries are already wealthy, they don't really need the extra cash, while those lower on the income scale now must deal with higher prices even as their income level remains the same.
   
   All this comes to mind as analyses of tax proposals made in this election campaign show that the main beneficiaries of so-called tax reform are those already wealthy, while others get smaller reductions, if any at all.
   Better that taxes remain collected by government, which can then use the money for public works projects such as rebuilding roads and rail transit systems, providing work for those who really need it, and wages to enable them to pay rent, and to buy food and clothing.
   That, too, is a trickle down system, but it works faster and benefits more people sooner.

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